While India has for many years been an emergent market it has also seen a fair degree of boom-and-bust periods as local airlines have struggled to survive in a market where seemingly uniforms and working conditions were more important than fuel. Today that has all changed and anyone who has travelled recently in India will be impressed with the levels of digital technology and biometrics in place across every major airport.
\n
India is no longer an emergent market - it is the market of international focus and the centre for aviation growth in the next decade, regardless of what one or two Middle East markets may think, and as a local airline IndiGo want their share of the growth rather than let some overseas carriers take their revenues. Traffic leakage through the major hubs in the Middle East has always been a characteristic of the Indian market and as the booking data below shows there are large volumes of traffic that could in a real low-cost airline model be swayed to a non-stop versus a one-stop service.
\n
London is not surprisingly the largest single city market with 330,000 pax per annum on Mumbai and 418,000 on Delhi and up to one-third of those currently travel indirectly. With some aggressive pricing market stimulation is very possible and aligning that emergent with a growing middle-class society with disposable income creates a perfect cocktail for a low-cost airline to grab, especially when that airline is an established and credible brand in the local market.
\n
Looking towards Asia there are also interesting markets for IndiGo including Singapore, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, although in these cases the volumes of indirect traffic are quite low so a new entrant will have to be aggressive on their initial pricing, and IndiGo know how to do that for sure!
\n
\n
\n
Speed To Market
\n
It is of course still speculation if IndiGo will lease those unloved Norse aircraft, but it appears too good an opportunity to miss. However, the chances of getting something in place for a launch in early Summer 2025 are slim. Perhaps it will be a launch in the second half of the year - although that is only 5 months away, and certainly for IndiGo securing any historic summer slots as part of the initiative will be important for the longer term. Certainly, from a market perspective demand from both Mumbai and Delhi to major markets is consistent throughout the year so launching in June or October IndiGo will be tapping into sizeable market opportunity.
\n
In summary, IndiGo long-haul low-cost is happening and while the original timelines pointed to a launch around 2027, a chance for a 2025 start-up has emerged - and it may just be that the stars are aligned for this year.
\n
","rss_summary":"
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
\n","rss_body":"
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
\n\n
But is that all about to change, and, ironically, is it a former legacy airline CEO that is going to drive that change? Indeed, there are indications that IndiGo is accelerating plans with some sharp short-term lease opportunities.
\n
So, why could they make it work when others haven’t?
\n
\n
Starting From a Point Of Strength
\n
In nearly every attempt at a long-haul low-cost airline the airline has started from a zero base of scheduled services or at best a minimal network of international services. This is not the case for IndiGo who in 2024 operated nearly three-quarters of a million scheduled flights, offering 135 million seats for sale spread across twenty-four countries and six hundred and thirty-three routes; hardly a start-up operation by any measurement.
\n
Operating 304 aircraft with another 103 inactive, IndiGo received more aircraft from Airbus in 2024 than any other airline. They also have another 28 scheduled for delivery through 2025, including some A321-XLRs which will create a whole new set of network opportunities. While the current 2025/6 deliveries exclude the planned A350s (which are slated for 2027 and beyond), IndiGo are keen to get into the long-haul low-cost business before then and have found a potential route to market.
\n
One Man’s Problem, Another Man’s Opportunity
\n
Norse Atlantic Airways, the re-incarnated Norwegian long-haul operation, are seeking to offload around half of their B787 fleet, if possible, in a wet lease - proving how difficult it is to operate long-haul low-cost. For IndiGo, such an opportunity is too good to miss - an operator with a suitable aircraft type in an existing LCC configuration desperate to move a problem on is too good a negotiating opportunity. It seems that IndiGo is looking for six aircraft which would probably be the minimum requirement to achieve any scale and operational efficiency from the fleet. But why the sudden urge to accelerate an already well documented plan? A rush of blood, a gap to be filled or a land grab in a booming market? Probably a bit of all, to be honest - so what is happening?
\n
Taking Advantage of the Moment
\n
Even the largest and best managed businesses can sometimes spot opportunities, and first mover advantage or fast of foot can create a strong market position. For a number of reasons IndiGo can see that moment - so what are the drivers?
\n
\n
Competitive consolidation. Merging two airlines into one is tough, but three into one is both tough and a distraction for the Air India Group as they stitch together the main brand, Vistara and Air India Express, while continuing to segment the different brands and invest in a massive programme of cabin upgrades.
\n
Capacity at some of the most likely markets is becoming a constraint, especially in Europe where Summer 2025 looks very busy. Taking the UK market as a likely starting point, Gatwick is probably the preferred destination and effectively full until 20:00 although some juggling could create schedules that sit on top of the current Air India services from the airport to points such as Ahmedabad and Cochin. Could IndiGo go to Stansted, perhaps, but Gatwick would probably be their preferred option.
\n
With both Navi Mumbai and Delhi Noida opening in 2025 and the main Mumbai Airport heavily constrained, both Air India and IndiGo are looking to realign their networks across both the new airports while scheduling for greater international connectivity at the two largest metropolitan airports. Part of that process for IndiGo is creating the space to start building international to international connectivity and locking in the long-haul parts of that network are a cornerstone of the plan.
\n
\n
For any airline seeing an opportunity to move quickly and then actually being able to do something about it doesn’t happen very often, but for these reasons alone bringing forward an existing plan makes sense, and that’s even before you look at the market potential.
\n
\n
\n
\n
India’s Booming Market
\n
While India has for many years been an emergent market it has also seen a fair degree of boom-and-bust periods as local airlines have struggled to survive in a market where seemingly uniforms and working conditions were more important than fuel. Today that has all changed and anyone who has travelled recently in India will be impressed with the levels of digital technology and biometrics in place across every major airport.
\n
India is no longer an emergent market - it is the market of international focus and the centre for aviation growth in the next decade, regardless of what one or two Middle East markets may think, and as a local airline IndiGo want their share of the growth rather than let some overseas carriers take their revenues. Traffic leakage through the major hubs in the Middle East has always been a characteristic of the Indian market and as the booking data below shows there are large volumes of traffic that could in a real low-cost airline model be swayed to a non-stop versus a one-stop service.
\n
London is not surprisingly the largest single city market with 330,000 pax per annum on Mumbai and 418,000 on Delhi and up to one-third of those currently travel indirectly. With some aggressive pricing market stimulation is very possible and aligning that emergent with a growing middle-class society with disposable income creates a perfect cocktail for a low-cost airline to grab, especially when that airline is an established and credible brand in the local market.
\n
Looking towards Asia there are also interesting markets for IndiGo including Singapore, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, although in these cases the volumes of indirect traffic are quite low so a new entrant will have to be aggressive on their initial pricing, and IndiGo know how to do that for sure!
\n
\n
\n
Speed To Market
\n
It is of course still speculation if IndiGo will lease those unloved Norse aircraft, but it appears too good an opportunity to miss. However, the chances of getting something in place for a launch in early Summer 2025 are slim. Perhaps it will be a launch in the second half of the year - although that is only 5 months away, and certainly for IndiGo securing any historic summer slots as part of the initiative will be important for the longer term. Certainly, from a market perspective demand from both Mumbai and Delhi to major markets is consistent throughout the year so launching in June or October IndiGo will be tapping into sizeable market opportunity.
\n
In summary, IndiGo long-haul low-cost is happening and while the original timelines pointed to a launch around 2027, a chance for a 2025 start-up has emerged - and it may just be that the stars are aligned for this year.
\n
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The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
\n\n
But is that all about to change, and, ironically, is it a former legacy airline CEO that is going to drive that change? Indeed, there are indications that IndiGo is accelerating plans with some sharp short-term lease opportunities.
\n
So, why could they make it work when others haven’t?
\n
\n
Starting From a Point Of Strength
\n
In nearly every attempt at a long-haul low-cost airline the airline has started from a zero base of scheduled services or at best a minimal network of international services. This is not the case for IndiGo who in 2024 operated nearly three-quarters of a million scheduled flights, offering 135 million seats for sale spread across twenty-four countries and six hundred and thirty-three routes; hardly a start-up operation by any measurement.
\n
Operating 304 aircraft with another 103 inactive, IndiGo received more aircraft from Airbus in 2024 than any other airline. They also have another 28 scheduled for delivery through 2025, including some A321-XLRs which will create a whole new set of network opportunities. While the current 2025/6 deliveries exclude the planned A350s (which are slated for 2027 and beyond), IndiGo are keen to get into the long-haul low-cost business before then and have found a potential route to market.
\n
One Man’s Problem, Another Man’s Opportunity
\n
Norse Atlantic Airways, the re-incarnated Norwegian long-haul operation, are seeking to offload around half of their B787 fleet, if possible, in a wet lease - proving how difficult it is to operate long-haul low-cost. For IndiGo, such an opportunity is too good to miss - an operator with a suitable aircraft type in an existing LCC configuration desperate to move a problem on is too good a negotiating opportunity. It seems that IndiGo is looking for six aircraft which would probably be the minimum requirement to achieve any scale and operational efficiency from the fleet. But why the sudden urge to accelerate an already well documented plan? A rush of blood, a gap to be filled or a land grab in a booming market? Probably a bit of all, to be honest - so what is happening?
\n
Taking Advantage of the Moment
\n
Even the largest and best managed businesses can sometimes spot opportunities, and first mover advantage or fast of foot can create a strong market position. For a number of reasons IndiGo can see that moment - so what are the drivers?
\n
\n
Competitive consolidation. Merging two airlines into one is tough, but three into one is both tough and a distraction for the Air India Group as they stitch together the main brand, Vistara and Air India Express, while continuing to segment the different brands and invest in a massive programme of cabin upgrades.
\n
Capacity at some of the most likely markets is becoming a constraint, especially in Europe where Summer 2025 looks very busy. Taking the UK market as a likely starting point, Gatwick is probably the preferred destination and effectively full until 20:00 although some juggling could create schedules that sit on top of the current Air India services from the airport to points such as Ahmedabad and Cochin. Could IndiGo go to Stansted, perhaps, but Gatwick would probably be their preferred option.
\n
With both Navi Mumbai and Delhi Noida opening in 2025 and the main Mumbai Airport heavily constrained, both Air India and IndiGo are looking to realign their networks across both the new airports while scheduling for greater international connectivity at the two largest metropolitan airports. Part of that process for IndiGo is creating the space to start building international to international connectivity and locking in the long-haul parts of that network are a cornerstone of the plan.
\n
\n
For any airline seeing an opportunity to move quickly and then actually being able to do something about it doesn’t happen very often, but for these reasons alone bringing forward an existing plan makes sense, and that’s even before you look at the market potential.
\n
\n
\n
\n
India’s Booming Market
\n
While India has for many years been an emergent market it has also seen a fair degree of boom-and-bust periods as local airlines have struggled to survive in a market where seemingly uniforms and working conditions were more important than fuel. Today that has all changed and anyone who has travelled recently in India will be impressed with the levels of digital technology and biometrics in place across every major airport.
\n
India is no longer an emergent market - it is the market of international focus and the centre for aviation growth in the next decade, regardless of what one or two Middle East markets may think, and as a local airline IndiGo want their share of the growth rather than let some overseas carriers take their revenues. Traffic leakage through the major hubs in the Middle East has always been a characteristic of the Indian market and as the booking data below shows there are large volumes of traffic that could in a real low-cost airline model be swayed to a non-stop versus a one-stop service.
\n
London is not surprisingly the largest single city market with 330,000 pax per annum on Mumbai and 418,000 on Delhi and up to one-third of those currently travel indirectly. With some aggressive pricing market stimulation is very possible and aligning that emergent with a growing middle-class society with disposable income creates a perfect cocktail for a low-cost airline to grab, especially when that airline is an established and credible brand in the local market.
\n
Looking towards Asia there are also interesting markets for IndiGo including Singapore, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, although in these cases the volumes of indirect traffic are quite low so a new entrant will have to be aggressive on their initial pricing, and IndiGo know how to do that for sure!
\n
\n
\n
Speed To Market
\n
It is of course still speculation if IndiGo will lease those unloved Norse aircraft, but it appears too good an opportunity to miss. However, the chances of getting something in place for a launch in early Summer 2025 are slim. Perhaps it will be a launch in the second half of the year - although that is only 5 months away, and certainly for IndiGo securing any historic summer slots as part of the initiative will be important for the longer term. Certainly, from a market perspective demand from both Mumbai and Delhi to major markets is consistent throughout the year so launching in June or October IndiGo will be tapping into sizeable market opportunity.
\n
In summary, IndiGo long-haul low-cost is happening and while the original timelines pointed to a launch around 2027, a chance for a 2025 start-up has emerged - and it may just be that the stars are aligned for this year.
\n
","postBodyRss":"
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
\n\n
But is that all about to change, and, ironically, is it a former legacy airline CEO that is going to drive that change? Indeed, there are indications that IndiGo is accelerating plans with some sharp short-term lease opportunities.
\n
So, why could they make it work when others haven’t?
\n
\n
Starting From a Point Of Strength
\n
In nearly every attempt at a long-haul low-cost airline the airline has started from a zero base of scheduled services or at best a minimal network of international services. This is not the case for IndiGo who in 2024 operated nearly three-quarters of a million scheduled flights, offering 135 million seats for sale spread across twenty-four countries and six hundred and thirty-three routes; hardly a start-up operation by any measurement.
\n
Operating 304 aircraft with another 103 inactive, IndiGo received more aircraft from Airbus in 2024 than any other airline. They also have another 28 scheduled for delivery through 2025, including some A321-XLRs which will create a whole new set of network opportunities. While the current 2025/6 deliveries exclude the planned A350s (which are slated for 2027 and beyond), IndiGo are keen to get into the long-haul low-cost business before then and have found a potential route to market.
\n
One Man’s Problem, Another Man’s Opportunity
\n
Norse Atlantic Airways, the re-incarnated Norwegian long-haul operation, are seeking to offload around half of their B787 fleet, if possible, in a wet lease - proving how difficult it is to operate long-haul low-cost. For IndiGo, such an opportunity is too good to miss - an operator with a suitable aircraft type in an existing LCC configuration desperate to move a problem on is too good a negotiating opportunity. It seems that IndiGo is looking for six aircraft which would probably be the minimum requirement to achieve any scale and operational efficiency from the fleet. But why the sudden urge to accelerate an already well documented plan? A rush of blood, a gap to be filled or a land grab in a booming market? Probably a bit of all, to be honest - so what is happening?
\n
Taking Advantage of the Moment
\n
Even the largest and best managed businesses can sometimes spot opportunities, and first mover advantage or fast of foot can create a strong market position. For a number of reasons IndiGo can see that moment - so what are the drivers?
\n
\n
Competitive consolidation. Merging two airlines into one is tough, but three into one is both tough and a distraction for the Air India Group as they stitch together the main brand, Vistara and Air India Express, while continuing to segment the different brands and invest in a massive programme of cabin upgrades.
\n
Capacity at some of the most likely markets is becoming a constraint, especially in Europe where Summer 2025 looks very busy. Taking the UK market as a likely starting point, Gatwick is probably the preferred destination and effectively full until 20:00 although some juggling could create schedules that sit on top of the current Air India services from the airport to points such as Ahmedabad and Cochin. Could IndiGo go to Stansted, perhaps, but Gatwick would probably be their preferred option.
\n
With both Navi Mumbai and Delhi Noida opening in 2025 and the main Mumbai Airport heavily constrained, both Air India and IndiGo are looking to realign their networks across both the new airports while scheduling for greater international connectivity at the two largest metropolitan airports. Part of that process for IndiGo is creating the space to start building international to international connectivity and locking in the long-haul parts of that network are a cornerstone of the plan.
\n
\n
For any airline seeing an opportunity to move quickly and then actually being able to do something about it doesn’t happen very often, but for these reasons alone bringing forward an existing plan makes sense, and that’s even before you look at the market potential.
\n
\n
\n
\n
India’s Booming Market
\n
While India has for many years been an emergent market it has also seen a fair degree of boom-and-bust periods as local airlines have struggled to survive in a market where seemingly uniforms and working conditions were more important than fuel. Today that has all changed and anyone who has travelled recently in India will be impressed with the levels of digital technology and biometrics in place across every major airport.
\n
India is no longer an emergent market - it is the market of international focus and the centre for aviation growth in the next decade, regardless of what one or two Middle East markets may think, and as a local airline IndiGo want their share of the growth rather than let some overseas carriers take their revenues. Traffic leakage through the major hubs in the Middle East has always been a characteristic of the Indian market and as the booking data below shows there are large volumes of traffic that could in a real low-cost airline model be swayed to a non-stop versus a one-stop service.
\n
London is not surprisingly the largest single city market with 330,000 pax per annum on Mumbai and 418,000 on Delhi and up to one-third of those currently travel indirectly. With some aggressive pricing market stimulation is very possible and aligning that emergent with a growing middle-class society with disposable income creates a perfect cocktail for a low-cost airline to grab, especially when that airline is an established and credible brand in the local market.
\n
Looking towards Asia there are also interesting markets for IndiGo including Singapore, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, although in these cases the volumes of indirect traffic are quite low so a new entrant will have to be aggressive on their initial pricing, and IndiGo know how to do that for sure!
\n
\n
\n
Speed To Market
\n
It is of course still speculation if IndiGo will lease those unloved Norse aircraft, but it appears too good an opportunity to miss. However, the chances of getting something in place for a launch in early Summer 2025 are slim. Perhaps it will be a launch in the second half of the year - although that is only 5 months away, and certainly for IndiGo securing any historic summer slots as part of the initiative will be important for the longer term. Certainly, from a market perspective demand from both Mumbai and Delhi to major markets is consistent throughout the year so launching in June or October IndiGo will be tapping into sizeable market opportunity.
\n
In summary, IndiGo long-haul low-cost is happening and while the original timelines pointed to a launch around 2027, a chance for a 2025 start-up has emerged - and it may just be that the stars are aligned for this year.
\n
","postEmailContent":"
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
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The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
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The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
\n\n
But is that all about to change, and, ironically, is it a former legacy airline CEO that is going to drive that change? Indeed, there are indications that IndiGo is accelerating plans with some sharp short-term lease opportunities.
\n
So, why could they make it work when others haven’t?
\n
\n
Starting From a Point Of Strength
\n
In nearly every attempt at a long-haul low-cost airline the airline has started from a zero base of scheduled services or at best a minimal network of international services. This is not the case for IndiGo who in 2024 operated nearly three-quarters of a million scheduled flights, offering 135 million seats for sale spread across twenty-four countries and six hundred and thirty-three routes; hardly a start-up operation by any measurement.
\n
Operating 304 aircraft with another 103 inactive, IndiGo received more aircraft from Airbus in 2024 than any other airline. They also have another 28 scheduled for delivery through 2025, including some A321-XLRs which will create a whole new set of network opportunities. While the current 2025/6 deliveries exclude the planned A350s (which are slated for 2027 and beyond), IndiGo are keen to get into the long-haul low-cost business before then and have found a potential route to market.
\n
One Man’s Problem, Another Man’s Opportunity
\n
Norse Atlantic Airways, the re-incarnated Norwegian long-haul operation, are seeking to offload around half of their B787 fleet, if possible, in a wet lease - proving how difficult it is to operate long-haul low-cost. For IndiGo, such an opportunity is too good to miss - an operator with a suitable aircraft type in an existing LCC configuration desperate to move a problem on is too good a negotiating opportunity. It seems that IndiGo is looking for six aircraft which would probably be the minimum requirement to achieve any scale and operational efficiency from the fleet. But why the sudden urge to accelerate an already well documented plan? A rush of blood, a gap to be filled or a land grab in a booming market? Probably a bit of all, to be honest - so what is happening?
\n
Taking Advantage of the Moment
\n
Even the largest and best managed businesses can sometimes spot opportunities, and first mover advantage or fast of foot can create a strong market position. For a number of reasons IndiGo can see that moment - so what are the drivers?
\n
\n
Competitive consolidation. Merging two airlines into one is tough, but three into one is both tough and a distraction for the Air India Group as they stitch together the main brand, Vistara and Air India Express, while continuing to segment the different brands and invest in a massive programme of cabin upgrades.
\n
Capacity at some of the most likely markets is becoming a constraint, especially in Europe where Summer 2025 looks very busy. Taking the UK market as a likely starting point, Gatwick is probably the preferred destination and effectively full until 20:00 although some juggling could create schedules that sit on top of the current Air India services from the airport to points such as Ahmedabad and Cochin. Could IndiGo go to Stansted, perhaps, but Gatwick would probably be their preferred option.
\n
With both Navi Mumbai and Delhi Noida opening in 2025 and the main Mumbai Airport heavily constrained, both Air India and IndiGo are looking to realign their networks across both the new airports while scheduling for greater international connectivity at the two largest metropolitan airports. Part of that process for IndiGo is creating the space to start building international to international connectivity and locking in the long-haul parts of that network are a cornerstone of the plan.
\n
\n
For any airline seeing an opportunity to move quickly and then actually being able to do something about it doesn’t happen very often, but for these reasons alone bringing forward an existing plan makes sense, and that’s even before you look at the market potential.
\n
\n
\n
\n
India’s Booming Market
\n
While India has for many years been an emergent market it has also seen a fair degree of boom-and-bust periods as local airlines have struggled to survive in a market where seemingly uniforms and working conditions were more important than fuel. Today that has all changed and anyone who has travelled recently in India will be impressed with the levels of digital technology and biometrics in place across every major airport.
\n
India is no longer an emergent market - it is the market of international focus and the centre for aviation growth in the next decade, regardless of what one or two Middle East markets may think, and as a local airline IndiGo want their share of the growth rather than let some overseas carriers take their revenues. Traffic leakage through the major hubs in the Middle East has always been a characteristic of the Indian market and as the booking data below shows there are large volumes of traffic that could in a real low-cost airline model be swayed to a non-stop versus a one-stop service.
\n
London is not surprisingly the largest single city market with 330,000 pax per annum on Mumbai and 418,000 on Delhi and up to one-third of those currently travel indirectly. With some aggressive pricing market stimulation is very possible and aligning that emergent with a growing middle-class society with disposable income creates a perfect cocktail for a low-cost airline to grab, especially when that airline is an established and credible brand in the local market.
\n
Looking towards Asia there are also interesting markets for IndiGo including Singapore, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, although in these cases the volumes of indirect traffic are quite low so a new entrant will have to be aggressive on their initial pricing, and IndiGo know how to do that for sure!
\n
\n
\n
Speed To Market
\n
It is of course still speculation if IndiGo will lease those unloved Norse aircraft, but it appears too good an opportunity to miss. However, the chances of getting something in place for a launch in early Summer 2025 are slim. Perhaps it will be a launch in the second half of the year - although that is only 5 months away, and certainly for IndiGo securing any historic summer slots as part of the initiative will be important for the longer term. Certainly, from a market perspective demand from both Mumbai and Delhi to major markets is consistent throughout the year so launching in June or October IndiGo will be tapping into sizeable market opportunity.
\n
In summary, IndiGo long-haul low-cost is happening and while the original timelines pointed to a launch around 2027, a chance for a 2025 start-up has emerged - and it may just be that the stars are aligned for this year.
\n
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The jury has been out on the potential for a sustainable long-haul low-cost airline operation for many years and whilst many have tried few have cracked the challenge, as combinations of competitive pressure, seasonal market demand, critical mass, currency fluctuations and uncontrollable costs tested even the most passionate LCC (low-cost carrier) entrepreneurs.
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Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n","post_body":"
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n\n
\n
Discover 2024's busiest international airline routes, mapped.
\n
Visualise the relationship between capacity changes and airfare changes for the US major airlines.
\n
Celebrate the top 5 most punctual airlines in North America.
\n
Get a comprehensive overview of 2024's airline capacity trends.
\n
Examine the world's busiest airports based on international and domestic capacity.
\n
Discover the top domestic airline routes worldwide as a fresh year begins.
\n
\n
Click through for our aviation infographics of the month for January 2025 below (take it full-size by clicking here), and click on any chart to read the full data analysis.
\n
\n
\n
To get a weekly round-up of our aviation market analysis, news on industry trends and deep dives into the latest tech for the industry, as well as our bitesize infographics, subscibe to OAG's weekly digest below. 👇
\n
","rss_summary":"
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n\n
\n
Discover 2024's busiest international airline routes, mapped.
\n
Visualise the relationship between capacity changes and airfare changes for the US major airlines.
\n
Celebrate the top 5 most punctual airlines in North America.
\n
Get a comprehensive overview of 2024's airline capacity trends.
\n
Examine the world's busiest airports based on international and domestic capacity.
\n
Discover the top domestic airline routes worldwide as a fresh year begins.
\n
\n
Click through for our aviation infographics of the month for January 2025 below (take it full-size by clicking here), and click on any chart to read the full data analysis.
\n
\n
\n
To get a weekly round-up of our aviation market analysis, news on industry trends and deep dives into the latest tech for the industry, as well as our bitesize infographics, subscibe to OAG's weekly digest below. 👇
\n
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Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n\n
\n
Discover 2024's busiest international airline routes, mapped.
\n
Visualise the relationship between capacity changes and airfare changes for the US major airlines.
\n
Celebrate the top 5 most punctual airlines in North America.
\n
Get a comprehensive overview of 2024's airline capacity trends.
\n
Examine the world's busiest airports based on international and domestic capacity.
\n
Discover the top domestic airline routes worldwide as a fresh year begins.
\n
\n
Click through for our aviation infographics of the month for January 2025 below (take it full-size by clicking here), and click on any chart to read the full data analysis.
\n
\n
\n
To get a weekly round-up of our aviation market analysis, news on industry trends and deep dives into the latest tech for the industry, as well as our bitesize infographics, subscibe to OAG's weekly digest below. 👇
\n
","postBodyRss":"
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n\n
\n
Discover 2024's busiest international airline routes, mapped.
\n
Visualise the relationship between capacity changes and airfare changes for the US major airlines.
\n
Celebrate the top 5 most punctual airlines in North America.
\n
Get a comprehensive overview of 2024's airline capacity trends.
\n
Examine the world's busiest airports based on international and domestic capacity.
\n
Discover the top domestic airline routes worldwide as a fresh year begins.
\n
\n
Click through for our aviation infographics of the month for January 2025 below (take it full-size by clicking here), and click on any chart to read the full data analysis.
\n
\n
\n
To get a weekly round-up of our aviation market analysis, news on industry trends and deep dives into the latest tech for the industry, as well as our bitesize infographics, subscibe to OAG's weekly digest below. 👇
\n
","postEmailContent":"
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
\n\n
\n
Discover 2024's busiest international airline routes, mapped.
\n
Visualise the relationship between capacity changes and airfare changes for the US major airlines.
\n
Celebrate the top 5 most punctual airlines in North America.
\n
Get a comprehensive overview of 2024's airline capacity trends.
\n
Examine the world's busiest airports based on international and domestic capacity.
\n
Discover the top domestic airline routes worldwide as a fresh year begins.
\n
\n
Click through for our aviation infographics of the month for January 2025 below (take it full-size by clicking here), and click on any chart to read the full data analysis.
\n
\n
\n
To get a weekly round-up of our aviation market analysis, news on industry trends and deep dives into the latest tech for the industry, as well as our bitesize infographics, subscibe to OAG's weekly digest below. 👇
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","rssSummary":"
Explore our January 2025 aviation infographics for bite-sized insight into this month's key aviation market analysis.
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Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n","post_body":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n\n
Using inbound + outbound flight data, here are some statistics from LHR's busiest day for flight seat capacity in 2024, September 4th:
\n
\n
1,398 flights.
\n
299,706 seats available.
\n
On average 74 flights per hour (based on operational hours, 4am-11pm).
\n
The busiest hour for arrivals was 09:00 with 45 scheduled, and departures was 19:00 with 48 departures.
\n
\n
Annual stats for LHR, based on 2024 full-year data:
\n
\n
Busiest route: LHR to JFK | 4,011,235 seats.
\n
2nd Busiest International Airport in the World | 48,358,450 seats (international capacity only, one-way).
\n
Busiest Airport in Europe | 51,553,190 seats (domestic + international capacity, one-way).
\n
\n
\n
Considering operational restrictions during early and late hours, it’s evident that most of the day operates at full capacity, leaving no room for additional movements. This lack of available capacity is a significant barrier to growth at Heathrow, the additional runway will enable the airport to expand its traffic further in the coming years.
\n
\n
London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
\n
\n
","rss_summary":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n","rss_body":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n\n
Using inbound + outbound flight data, here are some statistics from LHR's busiest day for flight seat capacity in 2024, September 4th:
\n
\n
1,398 flights.
\n
299,706 seats available.
\n
On average 74 flights per hour (based on operational hours, 4am-11pm).
\n
The busiest hour for arrivals was 09:00 with 45 scheduled, and departures was 19:00 with 48 departures.
\n
\n
Annual stats for LHR, based on 2024 full-year data:
\n
\n
Busiest route: LHR to JFK | 4,011,235 seats.
\n
2nd Busiest International Airport in the World | 48,358,450 seats (international capacity only, one-way).
\n
Busiest Airport in Europe | 51,553,190 seats (domestic + international capacity, one-way).
\n
\n
\n
Considering operational restrictions during early and late hours, it’s evident that most of the day operates at full capacity, leaving no room for additional movements. This lack of available capacity is a significant barrier to growth at Heathrow, the additional runway will enable the airport to expand its traffic further in the coming years.
\n
\n
London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
\n
\n
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Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n\n
Using inbound + outbound flight data, here are some statistics from LHR's busiest day for flight seat capacity in 2024, September 4th:
\n
\n
1,398 flights.
\n
299,706 seats available.
\n
On average 74 flights per hour (based on operational hours, 4am-11pm).
\n
The busiest hour for arrivals was 09:00 with 45 scheduled, and departures was 19:00 with 48 departures.
\n
\n
Annual stats for LHR, based on 2024 full-year data:
\n
\n
Busiest route: LHR to JFK | 4,011,235 seats.
\n
2nd Busiest International Airport in the World | 48,358,450 seats (international capacity only, one-way).
\n
Busiest Airport in Europe | 51,553,190 seats (domestic + international capacity, one-way).
\n
\n
\n
Considering operational restrictions during early and late hours, it’s evident that most of the day operates at full capacity, leaving no room for additional movements. This lack of available capacity is a significant barrier to growth at Heathrow, the additional runway will enable the airport to expand its traffic further in the coming years.
\n
\n
London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
\n
\n
","postBodyRss":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n\n
Using inbound + outbound flight data, here are some statistics from LHR's busiest day for flight seat capacity in 2024, September 4th:
\n
\n
1,398 flights.
\n
299,706 seats available.
\n
On average 74 flights per hour (based on operational hours, 4am-11pm).
\n
The busiest hour for arrivals was 09:00 with 45 scheduled, and departures was 19:00 with 48 departures.
\n
\n
Annual stats for LHR, based on 2024 full-year data:
\n
\n
Busiest route: LHR to JFK | 4,011,235 seats.
\n
2nd Busiest International Airport in the World | 48,358,450 seats (international capacity only, one-way).
\n
Busiest Airport in Europe | 51,553,190 seats (domestic + international capacity, one-way).
\n
\n
\n
Considering operational restrictions during early and late hours, it’s evident that most of the day operates at full capacity, leaving no room for additional movements. This lack of available capacity is a significant barrier to growth at Heathrow, the additional runway will enable the airport to expand its traffic further in the coming years.
\n
\n
London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
\n
\n
","postEmailContent":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n","postSummaryRss":"
Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
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Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
\n\n
Using inbound + outbound flight data, here are some statistics from LHR's busiest day for flight seat capacity in 2024, September 4th:
\n
\n
1,398 flights.
\n
299,706 seats available.
\n
On average 74 flights per hour (based on operational hours, 4am-11pm).
\n
The busiest hour for arrivals was 09:00 with 45 scheduled, and departures was 19:00 with 48 departures.
\n
\n
Annual stats for LHR, based on 2024 full-year data:
\n
\n
Busiest route: LHR to JFK | 4,011,235 seats.
\n
2nd Busiest International Airport in the World | 48,358,450 seats (international capacity only, one-way).
\n
Busiest Airport in Europe | 51,553,190 seats (domestic + international capacity, one-way).
\n
\n
\n
Considering operational restrictions during early and late hours, it’s evident that most of the day operates at full capacity, leaving no room for additional movements. This lack of available capacity is a significant barrier to growth at Heathrow, the additional runway will enable the airport to expand its traffic further in the coming years.
\n
\n
London Heathrow, Scheduled Arrivals & Departures, 4th September 2024
\n
\n
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Today, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, unveiled a major growth plan for the UK, which includes her support for expanding Heathrow Airport and building a third runway.
\n
What will this mean for LHR and why is it necessary to boost economic growth? We take a look at the key stats.
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| Aviation Market Analysis","id":185455881657,"includeDefaultCustomCss":null,"isCaptchaRequired":true,"isCrawlableByBots":false,"isDraft":false,"isInstanceLayoutPage":false,"isInstantEmailEnabled":true,"isPublished":true,"isSocialPublishingEnabled":false,"keywords":[],"label":"GOL and Azul, a Merger of Necessity Or Choice?","language":"en-gb","lastEditSessionId":null,"lastEditUpdateId":null,"layoutSections":{},"legacyBlogTabid":null,"legacyId":null,"legacyPostGuid":null,"linkRelCanonicalUrl":"","listTemplate":"generated_layouts/66381677173.html","liveDomain":"www.oag.com","mab":false,"mabExperimentId":null,"mabMaster":false,"mabVariant":false,"meta":{"html_title":"GOL and Azul, a Merger of Necessity Or Choice? | Aviation Market Analysis","public_access_rules":[],"public_access_rules_enabled":false,"enable_google_amp_output_override":false,"generate_json_ld_enabled":true,"composition_id":0,"is_crawlable_by_bots":false,"use_featured_image":true,"post_summary":"
Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
\n","post_body":"
Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
\n\n
The first thing to note is that most airline mergers are a function of necessity, with a stronger airline seeking to acquire a smaller operator who may be struggling in terms of market size or network. In some cases it’s a matter of saving an airline from collapse and in others, it’s about trying to create a more profitable airline. It’s rare to see a proposed merger like GOL and Azul, where both are of similar size, network and strategy, and are experiencing significant loses. This merger, regardless of who is acquiring whom and why, is about a more basic instinct: survival.
\n
An Already Concentrated Airline Market in Brazil
\n
Many mergers are about consolidation in a fragmented market and there are plenty of examples of airline consolidation transforming the profitability of the industry, the United States being a very good example. But the Brazilian market is already concentrated, as the data below confirms. Including both international and domestic capacity the two airlines had a 40% share of capacity in 2024, and in the domestic market that increased to 47%. Any planned merger - subject to approval - would not only create the single largest domestic airline but would also place 75% of capacity in the hands of two airlines, which would certainly be of interest to the regulators.
\n
\n
\n
Key Comparisons
\n
Comparing the two airlines in terms of size, scale and operation, they would appear to be very similar as the table below highlights, but when you look at their types of operation, the networks are very different. While in total capacity terms the two airlines are similar, Azul operate 99% of their services within the domestic market while GOL has at least 5% of their schedules allocated to international services. Azul operate 422 domestic routes - which seems a staggering level of coverage while GOL operate less than half that network size. Brazil has for decades been a classic “boom and bust” market with rapid capacity growth from new airlines being followed by subsequent dips in capacity as the economy suffers another collapse, followed by the same cycle being followed a few years later; the one constant through all those cycles is that the airlines have been hugely unprofitable, and that may be the case this time around as well.
It’s tough to be profitable in the airline industry. While IATA proudly claim that 2025 will be a record year for the airline industry, strip away a few key facts and the truth is quickly exposed. A large proportion of the industry’s expected profits are based in the North American market with the “Big Four” leading the way. In Europe the combination of major legacy and LCCs (low-cost carriers) add a valuable contribution, while in the Middle East and Asia a select group of carriers feed the balance of that profitability. Collectively, less than 50 airlines will underpin that projected record profitability, but for the rest of the airlines around the world, 2025 will be another year of struggles and likely losses. And the KPIs for both Azul and GOL in the last few years highlight how big that challenge is.
\n
\n
The results of both Gol and Azul reflect how hard the market has been in Brazil, with both recording losses in 2023 and most likely through last year (we’ll know when results are announced). Collectively the two airlines since 2019 have lost over US$ 6.6 billion. For two airlines riding the pandemic recovery the results go to the very heart of why they perhaps are looking at a merger; the current losses are just unsustainable in 2025 and beyond.
\n
Key Considerations in the GOL and Azul Merger
\n
Given the domestic market share that a combined GOL/Azul operation would have it’s no surprise that there is significant network overlap. Whether the frequency of service would be maintained is a key question. On key markets such as Sao Paulo Congonhas to Rio De Janeiro Santos Dumont the current collective 44 daily services may be excessive but necessary, however, head-to-head services on some of the longer domestic routes may offer potential for frequency adjustments should the merger proceed. Typically, in such situations the regulator seeks assurances about levels of service and remedial actions such as releasing slots in some markets for competitors to use, although that often has minimal impact on the market structure. But perhaps the bigger question will be around how the fleet would be adjusted or indeed, could it be adjusted?
\n
While Azul are principally an Airbus, ATR and Embraer operator with outstanding orders for 187 aircraft, GOL are wedded to a Boeing fleet with 120 active aircraft and an existing order for another 139 (although quite when they will be delivered is anyone’s guess now). With both ATR and Embraers, the Azul fleet is certainly more flexible and importantly the right size for the market, whereas the pure B737 fleet of GOL may tick all the boxes of efficiency and scale but can be limiting in terms of operating those smaller markets. Ultimately, fleet decisions and changes take time but should be an early and crucial consideration in weighing up the value of the merger for both airlines. Fleet flexibility leans towards the Azul operation, but GOL are a very large Boeing customer, and the manufacturer will do everything to keep a merged airline as a customer in the coming years.
\n
Will Regulators Approve?
\n
Airline mergers attract a lot of regulatory attention, not just domestically but across international markets, and securing the necessary approvals will probably be a lengthy and expensive process for the two airlines. Equally the regulators in this case are being presented with a fait accompli: apply excessive regulatory requirements and the merger will collapse, reject the merger and it’s likely that the two airlines will have to radically adjust their current networks and impact consumer choice. This may be a case where the regulator applies a very light touch in exchange for giving approval, perhaps with some requirements about maintaining services in secondary smaller markets.
\n
Whatever happens, there seems to be a very strong case for some consolidation in the market or the current operating performances of both Azul and GOL suggest that they will need to make some significant changes to their operations. Whether that happens as a combined entity or as two individual airlines is the key question.
\n
For a regular email round-up of aviation market analysis from John and our other experts, subscribe to OAG's weekly digest.
\n
\n
","rss_summary":"
Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
\n","rss_body":"
Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
\n\n
The first thing to note is that most airline mergers are a function of necessity, with a stronger airline seeking to acquire a smaller operator who may be struggling in terms of market size or network. In some cases it’s a matter of saving an airline from collapse and in others, it’s about trying to create a more profitable airline. It’s rare to see a proposed merger like GOL and Azul, where both are of similar size, network and strategy, and are experiencing significant loses. This merger, regardless of who is acquiring whom and why, is about a more basic instinct: survival.
\n
An Already Concentrated Airline Market in Brazil
\n
Many mergers are about consolidation in a fragmented market and there are plenty of examples of airline consolidation transforming the profitability of the industry, the United States being a very good example. But the Brazilian market is already concentrated, as the data below confirms. Including both international and domestic capacity the two airlines had a 40% share of capacity in 2024, and in the domestic market that increased to 47%. Any planned merger - subject to approval - would not only create the single largest domestic airline but would also place 75% of capacity in the hands of two airlines, which would certainly be of interest to the regulators.
\n
\n
\n
Key Comparisons
\n
Comparing the two airlines in terms of size, scale and operation, they would appear to be very similar as the table below highlights, but when you look at their types of operation, the networks are very different. While in total capacity terms the two airlines are similar, Azul operate 99% of their services within the domestic market while GOL has at least 5% of their schedules allocated to international services. Azul operate 422 domestic routes - which seems a staggering level of coverage while GOL operate less than half that network size. Brazil has for decades been a classic “boom and bust” market with rapid capacity growth from new airlines being followed by subsequent dips in capacity as the economy suffers another collapse, followed by the same cycle being followed a few years later; the one constant through all those cycles is that the airlines have been hugely unprofitable, and that may be the case this time around as well.
It’s tough to be profitable in the airline industry. While IATA proudly claim that 2025 will be a record year for the airline industry, strip away a few key facts and the truth is quickly exposed. A large proportion of the industry’s expected profits are based in the North American market with the “Big Four” leading the way. In Europe the combination of major legacy and LCCs (low-cost carriers) add a valuable contribution, while in the Middle East and Asia a select group of carriers feed the balance of that profitability. Collectively, less than 50 airlines will underpin that projected record profitability, but for the rest of the airlines around the world, 2025 will be another year of struggles and likely losses. And the KPIs for both Azul and GOL in the last few years highlight how big that challenge is.
\n
\n
The results of both Gol and Azul reflect how hard the market has been in Brazil, with both recording losses in 2023 and most likely through last year (we’ll know when results are announced). Collectively the two airlines since 2019 have lost over US$ 6.6 billion. For two airlines riding the pandemic recovery the results go to the very heart of why they perhaps are looking at a merger; the current losses are just unsustainable in 2025 and beyond.
\n
Key Considerations in the GOL and Azul Merger
\n
Given the domestic market share that a combined GOL/Azul operation would have it’s no surprise that there is significant network overlap. Whether the frequency of service would be maintained is a key question. On key markets such as Sao Paulo Congonhas to Rio De Janeiro Santos Dumont the current collective 44 daily services may be excessive but necessary, however, head-to-head services on some of the longer domestic routes may offer potential for frequency adjustments should the merger proceed. Typically, in such situations the regulator seeks assurances about levels of service and remedial actions such as releasing slots in some markets for competitors to use, although that often has minimal impact on the market structure. But perhaps the bigger question will be around how the fleet would be adjusted or indeed, could it be adjusted?
\n
While Azul are principally an Airbus, ATR and Embraer operator with outstanding orders for 187 aircraft, GOL are wedded to a Boeing fleet with 120 active aircraft and an existing order for another 139 (although quite when they will be delivered is anyone’s guess now). With both ATR and Embraers, the Azul fleet is certainly more flexible and importantly the right size for the market, whereas the pure B737 fleet of GOL may tick all the boxes of efficiency and scale but can be limiting in terms of operating those smaller markets. Ultimately, fleet decisions and changes take time but should be an early and crucial consideration in weighing up the value of the merger for both airlines. Fleet flexibility leans towards the Azul operation, but GOL are a very large Boeing customer, and the manufacturer will do everything to keep a merged airline as a customer in the coming years.
\n
Will Regulators Approve?
\n
Airline mergers attract a lot of regulatory attention, not just domestically but across international markets, and securing the necessary approvals will probably be a lengthy and expensive process for the two airlines. Equally the regulators in this case are being presented with a fait accompli: apply excessive regulatory requirements and the merger will collapse, reject the merger and it’s likely that the two airlines will have to radically adjust their current networks and impact consumer choice. This may be a case where the regulator applies a very light touch in exchange for giving approval, perhaps with some requirements about maintaining services in secondary smaller markets.
\n
Whatever happens, there seems to be a very strong case for some consolidation in the market or the current operating performances of both Azul and GOL suggest that they will need to make some significant changes to their operations. Whether that happens as a combined entity or as two individual airlines is the key question.
\n
For a regular email round-up of aviation market analysis from John and our other experts, subscribe to OAG's weekly digest.
\n
\n
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Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
\n\n
The first thing to note is that most airline mergers are a function of necessity, with a stronger airline seeking to acquire a smaller operator who may be struggling in terms of market size or network. In some cases it’s a matter of saving an airline from collapse and in others, it’s about trying to create a more profitable airline. It’s rare to see a proposed merger like GOL and Azul, where both are of similar size, network and strategy, and are experiencing significant loses. This merger, regardless of who is acquiring whom and why, is about a more basic instinct: survival.
\n
An Already Concentrated Airline Market in Brazil
\n
Many mergers are about consolidation in a fragmented market and there are plenty of examples of airline consolidation transforming the profitability of the industry, the United States being a very good example. But the Brazilian market is already concentrated, as the data below confirms. Including both international and domestic capacity the two airlines had a 40% share of capacity in 2024, and in the domestic market that increased to 47%. Any planned merger - subject to approval - would not only create the single largest domestic airline but would also place 75% of capacity in the hands of two airlines, which would certainly be of interest to the regulators.
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Key Comparisons
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Comparing the two airlines in terms of size, scale and operation, they would appear to be very similar as the table below highlights, but when you look at their types of operation, the networks are very different. While in total capacity terms the two airlines are similar, Azul operate 99% of their services within the domestic market while GOL has at least 5% of their schedules allocated to international services. Azul operate 422 domestic routes - which seems a staggering level of coverage while GOL operate less than half that network size. Brazil has for decades been a classic “boom and bust” market with rapid capacity growth from new airlines being followed by subsequent dips in capacity as the economy suffers another collapse, followed by the same cycle being followed a few years later; the one constant through all those cycles is that the airlines have been hugely unprofitable, and that may be the case this time around as well.
It’s tough to be profitable in the airline industry. While IATA proudly claim that 2025 will be a record year for the airline industry, strip away a few key facts and the truth is quickly exposed. A large proportion of the industry’s expected profits are based in the North American market with the “Big Four” leading the way. In Europe the combination of major legacy and LCCs (low-cost carriers) add a valuable contribution, while in the Middle East and Asia a select group of carriers feed the balance of that profitability. Collectively, less than 50 airlines will underpin that projected record profitability, but for the rest of the airlines around the world, 2025 will be another year of struggles and likely losses. And the KPIs for both Azul and GOL in the last few years highlight how big that challenge is.
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The results of both Gol and Azul reflect how hard the market has been in Brazil, with both recording losses in 2023 and most likely through last year (we’ll know when results are announced). Collectively the two airlines since 2019 have lost over US$ 6.6 billion. For two airlines riding the pandemic recovery the results go to the very heart of why they perhaps are looking at a merger; the current losses are just unsustainable in 2025 and beyond.
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Key Considerations in the GOL and Azul Merger
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Given the domestic market share that a combined GOL/Azul operation would have it’s no surprise that there is significant network overlap. Whether the frequency of service would be maintained is a key question. On key markets such as Sao Paulo Congonhas to Rio De Janeiro Santos Dumont the current collective 44 daily services may be excessive but necessary, however, head-to-head services on some of the longer domestic routes may offer potential for frequency adjustments should the merger proceed. Typically, in such situations the regulator seeks assurances about levels of service and remedial actions such as releasing slots in some markets for competitors to use, although that often has minimal impact on the market structure. But perhaps the bigger question will be around how the fleet would be adjusted or indeed, could it be adjusted?
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While Azul are principally an Airbus, ATR and Embraer operator with outstanding orders for 187 aircraft, GOL are wedded to a Boeing fleet with 120 active aircraft and an existing order for another 139 (although quite when they will be delivered is anyone’s guess now). With both ATR and Embraers, the Azul fleet is certainly more flexible and importantly the right size for the market, whereas the pure B737 fleet of GOL may tick all the boxes of efficiency and scale but can be limiting in terms of operating those smaller markets. Ultimately, fleet decisions and changes take time but should be an early and crucial consideration in weighing up the value of the merger for both airlines. Fleet flexibility leans towards the Azul operation, but GOL are a very large Boeing customer, and the manufacturer will do everything to keep a merged airline as a customer in the coming years.
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Will Regulators Approve?
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Airline mergers attract a lot of regulatory attention, not just domestically but across international markets, and securing the necessary approvals will probably be a lengthy and expensive process for the two airlines. Equally the regulators in this case are being presented with a fait accompli: apply excessive regulatory requirements and the merger will collapse, reject the merger and it’s likely that the two airlines will have to radically adjust their current networks and impact consumer choice. This may be a case where the regulator applies a very light touch in exchange for giving approval, perhaps with some requirements about maintaining services in secondary smaller markets.
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Whatever happens, there seems to be a very strong case for some consolidation in the market or the current operating performances of both Azul and GOL suggest that they will need to make some significant changes to their operations. Whether that happens as a combined entity or as two individual airlines is the key question.
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Airline mergers and acquisitions seem to be just like London buses, nothing for a while and then suddenly three come along all at the same time! With the Korean/Asiana merger nearing completion and TAP Air Portugal destined for new ownership in 2025, the proposed GOL/Azul merger is about to be referred to the regulator. We’ve covered the Korean/Asiana “wedding” previously, now let’s look at the implications of the GOL and Azul merger.
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The first thing to note is that most airline mergers are a function of necessity, with a stronger airline seeking to acquire a smaller operator who may be struggling in terms of market size or network. In some cases it’s a matter of saving an airline from collapse and in others, it’s about trying to create a more profitable airline. It’s rare to see a proposed merger like GOL and Azul, where both are of similar size, network and strategy, and are experiencing significant loses. This merger, regardless of who is acquiring whom and why, is about a more basic instinct: survival.
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An Already Concentrated Airline Market in Brazil
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Many mergers are about consolidation in a fragmented market and there are plenty of examples of airline consolidation transforming the profitability of the industry, the United States being a very good example. But the Brazilian market is already concentrated, as the data below confirms. Including both international and domestic capacity the two airlines had a 40% share of capacity in 2024, and in the domestic market that increased to 47%. Any planned merger - subject to approval - would not only create the single largest domestic airline but would also place 75% of capacity in the hands of two airlines, which would certainly be of interest to the regulators.