It looks like this summer will be the most successful yet for Europe’s airlines and airports, with record levels of capacity. The industry is looking forward to what should be a strong summer season before a perhaps more uncertain outlook for consumer confidence in the last quarter of the year.

While some European markets have struggled to recover to pre-pandemic capacity levels as a mix of regulatory and supply factors impact supply, Spain has accelerated away to become the single largest country market in Western Europe. Between now and the end of October some 118 million departing seats will be on sale from Spain representing a 39% increase in capacity over the last six years. It now ranks ahead of the United Kingdom, in first place. A remarkable achievement! So, how has Spain managed to recover so strongly?

A Market Of Two Parts

Geography always plays an important role in any market and especially when water is involved! Scheduled air services to the Islands are crucial and account for one-third (11.9 million) of all domestic capacity , with large domestic markets in both the Balearic and Canary Islands. Not surprisingly the Spanish domestic market of 35.4 million seats is the largest in Europe with Turkiye in second place and Italy in third spot; collectively these three country markets account for over half of domestic capacity in Western Europe.

Successful domestic capacity growth in these three countries is in stark contrast to the situation in France and Germany where domestic capacity has dramatically reduced; in Germany capacity is some 55% down on Summer 2019 and in France 24%. Operating profitable domestic services has always been challenging but it is possible, and the value of connecting traffic to larger longer-haul networks can be important in some cases.

Spain’s international capacity has increased by 15% since Summer 2019 with 5% more seats this year than in Summer 2024 as airlines continue to add capacity to the market. Intra-Western Europe capacity accounts for 80% of all capacity standing at 66 million seats, which is tracking at similar levels of growth as the wider market. Regional markets have developed strongly with capacity to North Africa up by 50% against Summer 2019 while Upper South America is 40% up; two developing markets with further potential opportunity for service in the coming years.

Low-Cost Capacity Dominates in Western Europe

Few markets have embraced low-cost airlines as much as Spain, where the combination of leisure demand, required connectivity to the Islands and large diaspora from other points in Europe have responded to those lower airfares and new routes being opened. Nearly 60% of all capacity is operated by LCCs and while in 2019 LCCs already had the majority share, that has extended in recent years and within Western Europe a staggering 68% of all seats will be operated by Low-Cost Carriers.

Ryanair will operate nearly a fifth of all capacity this Summer, with some 19.4 million seats planned, 40% more than they operated in Summer 2019. Collectively the two IAG airlines of Vueling and Iberia will operate 33 million seats, securing a 28% capacity share; intriguingly Vueling are the larger of the two IAG carriers operating some 18.2 million seats compared to the 14.8 million supplied by Iberia. In the international market, easyJet rank second to Ryanair but with “just” seven million seats on sale they have only one-third the capacity of their Irish competitor.

Island Capacity Dominates Top Airport Pairs for Spain

Seven of the ten largest markets from Spain this summer involve connectivity to one of the Island markets with Barcelona – Palma the largest at over 1.8 million seats scheduled for the summer. Generally capacity growth on the domestic Island routes has been modest since 2019; after all, when there are already over a million seats what additional demand can be created with new capacity? The only notable exception is Madrid – Tenerife North, with 18% growth over the six-year period.

Across the mainland domestic services, and despite the very efficient AVE rail service, Madrid – Barcelona remains the largest with some one million planned seats, although this is almost half of the Summer 2019 level. Iberia with an 80% share and some 800,000 seats scheduled this summer are the largest carrier on the route despite having cut one third of capacity since Summer 2019. Vueling who were the second largest airline operating on the route have dropped out of the market, finding more lucrative uses for their capacity.

And finally, for anyone looking for a bargain airfare; with a 40% increase in capacity between Madrid and Rome in recent years there is probably some capacity and lower fares on offer, with both legacy and low-cost airlines competing head-to-head on the route.

In summary, the Spanish aviation market has never been in a stronger position with a solid mix of business, leisure and VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) demand spread across both mainland domestic, inter-Island and international travel. And while the current economic news and its impact on consumer demand may result at some point in a future slowing down of recent growth rates, Europe’s airlines and airports are meeting at just the right time to discuss even more opportunities for Spanish development.