
The same grain has a second cut: channel. Direct, TMC, OTA, and brick-and-mortar retail do not sample the same traveller. They do not respond to the same events. A single market number averaged across them hides the movement that revenue management, network, and sales actually have to act on.
\nThe pattern is familiar even before any one carrier’s house file is opened. Direct mixes brand-loyal demand with metasearch spill and tends to show a slight yield premium. TMC demand is managed corporate traffic: policy, duty of care, shorter booking windows, international and long-haul weight, a clearer premium-cabin skew, and a material yield premium. OTA demand is price-led leisure, more domestic, more economy, longer advance purchase, and a yield discount. Retail agencies sit between those poles; advice-led leisure, more international than the OTA, mixed cabin, a smaller discount. House metrics used in the underlying briefing put illustrative yield indices at 1.05 direct, 1.20 TMC, 0.80 OTA, and 0.90 retail against an airline average of 1.00. The levels will differ by carrier. The structure does not.
\n\nAdvance-purchase and entity mix make the same point. A fare action that is rational against OTA leisure six to twelve weeks out can be the wrong action against TMC demand one to three weeks out on the same city pair. Network decisions that treat “the market” as one series will misread a channel mix shift as a demand shift. Loyalty and marketing, looking only at cleared tickets, will miss where the looking has already moved.
\nEach channel is therefore a demand sample with utility beyond sales reporting. Revenue management can see whether a weakness is concentrated in price-led leisure or in managed corporate. Network can see whether a route’s apparent softness is an OTA phenomenon. Distribution can see whether an indirect construct is underselling a product that direct is clearing. Finance can see yield as a portfolio of populations rather than as one average. That is the operational meaning of “one grain, two jobs.” The same offer-and-search file that supports competitive comparison also supports a demand reading the older fare file could not produce.
\nThe payoff is organisational rather than technical. Pricing, revenue management, network, and distribution have always needed the same competitive picture. They have not always been looking at the same object. Filed fares gave them a shared number and a shared fiction: that the number was the product. Offer-level data, once normalised, gives them a shared object that matches what the traveller was shown. Search-level data gives them a shared leading indicator. Channel cuts give them the populations inside the average.
\nNone of that requires a new commercial question. It requires admitting that the question (where do we sit, and who is still looking) cannot be answered by a headline fare pulled on a cycle. NDC and Offer and Order do not automatically produce the answer. They produce the grain. The work is to keep the grain comparable across carriers and usable across functions.
\n\nThe third essay turns to the wave after this one. Travellers are already using AI to plan and book. The rails for that behaviour are being built by platforms that are not travel consortia. New query types will not look like a GDS fill. The industry will have to decide whether the storehouse for those queries is a neutral layer or a new choke point. The offer-and-intent file described here is what that next layer will either extend or bypass.
\n \n","post_body":"
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
The catalyst is not a new idea about retailing. It is a change in what indirect channels can carry. Under EDIFACT, the airline saw a filed fare, a class, and a coarse outcome. Direct channels already had finer grain: first-party search, a live offer, and a result. NDC and Offer and Order put that same grain into the indirect path. House splits on the order of 60 per cent direct and 40 per cent indirect are a reminder of why that matters. A large minority of the business is no longer visible only as a filed ladder. It can be visible as an offer assembled at shop time, with the search that preceded it.
\nOnce that is true, two jobs open at once. The commercial team can compare the whole product, not the headline fare. It can also treat intent as a measured signal rather than as exhaust from the booking.
\n\n
The older comparison was simple because the object was simple. One published price, one booking class, the same product in every channel, a ladder the market could see. Benchmarking meant pulling the fare and ranking it.
\nThe object is no longer simple. Price arrives with brand, bundle, and ancillary, assembled at the moment of shop. Channels receive different content and different prices. A competitor may never file the offer that a traveller actually sees. Ranking the lowest available fare across that landscape is a ranking of unlike products unless the tiers have been normalised first.
\nThat is a retailing problem wearing a data problem’s clothes. Airlines have spent a decade telling the market they are becoming retailers. Retail comparison requires a common shelf. “Basic” on one carrier is not automatically “Light” on another. Seat selection, baggage, change privileges, and lounge access move in and out of the fare by market, by channel, and by passenger mix. Until those attributes sit in a shared map, a pricing meeting that debates a two-dollar gap is debating a number that may be attached to two different products.
\n\nChannel-specific construction makes the map more necessary, not less. Direct, TMC, OTA, and retail agency are not four windows onto one offer. They are four construction environments. A filed-fare file cannot say whether an indirect weakness is a price problem or a merchandising problem. An offer-level file can, but only after brand names and bundle elements have been forced into comparable tiers. The unglamorous work described in the first essay (normalise, then rank) is the price of using the finer grain NDC makes available.
\nPrice, even a well-normalised offer price, is a lagging description of who bought. Search is a leading description of who is still looking. City pair, dates, and passenger mix are visible in the request before any fare is returned. That is real-world demand, not demand inferred from the ticket that happened to clear.
\nThe idea is not new. Analysts have treated search as a leading indicator for years. What is new is that the signal is becoming usable at commercial scale, including in indirect, once Offer and Order carries first-party grain beyond the airline’s own site. A PROS study of 27 airline clients found a Pearson correlation of 0.77 between flight search initiation and purchases. A ten per cent rise in search initiation tracked to an approximately 7.3 per cent rise in purchases, significant at p < 0.01 (PROS, 2025). That is not a metaphor about “intent.” It is a measured relationship between looking and buying.
\n\nTwo cautions belong next to that result. Correlation is not a complete demand model, and search on a single carrier’s site is not the market. The study is still sufficient for the claim this essay needs. Search volume, by market and by passenger mix, is a finer reading of who remains in the funnel than the fare that closed yesterday. Commercial teams that treat look traffic only as a cost, the look-to-book problem in the first essay, are throwing away the information the cost produces.
\n\nThe same grain has a second cut: channel. Direct, TMC, OTA, and brick-and-mortar retail do not sample the same traveller. They do not respond to the same events. A single market number averaged across them hides the movement that revenue management, network, and sales actually have to act on.
\nThe pattern is familiar even before any one carrier’s house file is opened. Direct mixes brand-loyal demand with metasearch spill and tends to show a slight yield premium. TMC demand is managed corporate traffic: policy, duty of care, shorter booking windows, international and long-haul weight, a clearer premium-cabin skew, and a material yield premium. OTA demand is price-led leisure, more domestic, more economy, longer advance purchase, and a yield discount. Retail agencies sit between those poles; advice-led leisure, more international than the OTA, mixed cabin, a smaller discount. House metrics used in the underlying briefing put illustrative yield indices at 1.05 direct, 1.20 TMC, 0.80 OTA, and 0.90 retail against an airline average of 1.00. The levels will differ by carrier. The structure does not.
\n\nAdvance-purchase and entity mix make the same point. A fare action that is rational against OTA leisure six to twelve weeks out can be the wrong action against TMC demand one to three weeks out on the same city pair. Network decisions that treat “the market” as one series will misread a channel mix shift as a demand shift. Loyalty and marketing, looking only at cleared tickets, will miss where the looking has already moved.
\nEach channel is therefore a demand sample with utility beyond sales reporting. Revenue management can see whether a weakness is concentrated in price-led leisure or in managed corporate. Network can see whether a route’s apparent softness is an OTA phenomenon. Distribution can see whether an indirect construct is underselling a product that direct is clearing. Finance can see yield as a portfolio of populations rather than as one average. That is the operational meaning of “one grain, two jobs.” The same offer-and-search file that supports competitive comparison also supports a demand reading the older fare file could not produce.
\nThe payoff is organisational rather than technical. Pricing, revenue management, network, and distribution have always needed the same competitive picture. They have not always been looking at the same object. Filed fares gave them a shared number and a shared fiction: that the number was the product. Offer-level data, once normalised, gives them a shared object that matches what the traveller was shown. Search-level data gives them a shared leading indicator. Channel cuts give them the populations inside the average.
\nNone of that requires a new commercial question. It requires admitting that the question (where do we sit, and who is still looking) cannot be answered by a headline fare pulled on a cycle. NDC and Offer and Order do not automatically produce the answer. They produce the grain. The work is to keep the grain comparable across carriers and usable across functions.
\n\nThe third essay turns to the wave after this one. Travellers are already using AI to plan and book. The rails for that behaviour are being built by platforms that are not travel consortia. New query types will not look like a GDS fill. The industry will have to decide whether the storehouse for those queries is a neutral layer or a new choke point. The offer-and-intent file described here is what that next layer will either extend or bypass.
\n \n","post_summary":"
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
The catalyst is not a new idea about retailing. It is a change in what indirect channels can carry. Under EDIFACT, the airline saw a filed fare, a class, and a coarse outcome. Direct channels already had finer grain: first-party search, a live offer, and a result. NDC and Offer and Order put that same grain into the indirect path. House splits on the order of 60 per cent direct and 40 per cent indirect are a reminder of why that matters. A large minority of the business is no longer visible only as a filed ladder. It can be visible as an offer assembled at shop time, with the search that preceded it.
\nOnce that is true, two jobs open at once. The commercial team can compare the whole product, not the headline fare. It can also treat intent as a measured signal rather than as exhaust from the booking.
\n\n
The older comparison was simple because the object was simple. One published price, one booking class, the same product in every channel, a ladder the market could see. Benchmarking meant pulling the fare and ranking it.
\nThe object is no longer simple. Price arrives with brand, bundle, and ancillary, assembled at the moment of shop. Channels receive different content and different prices. A competitor may never file the offer that a traveller actually sees. Ranking the lowest available fare across that landscape is a ranking of unlike products unless the tiers have been normalised first.
\nThat is a retailing problem wearing a data problem’s clothes. Airlines have spent a decade telling the market they are becoming retailers. Retail comparison requires a common shelf. “Basic” on one carrier is not automatically “Light” on another. Seat selection, baggage, change privileges, and lounge access move in and out of the fare by market, by channel, and by passenger mix. Until those attributes sit in a shared map, a pricing meeting that debates a two-dollar gap is debating a number that may be attached to two different products.
\n\nChannel-specific construction makes the map more necessary, not less. Direct, TMC, OTA, and retail agency are not four windows onto one offer. They are four construction environments. A filed-fare file cannot say whether an indirect weakness is a price problem or a merchandising problem. An offer-level file can, but only after brand names and bundle elements have been forced into comparable tiers. The unglamorous work described in the first essay (normalise, then rank) is the price of using the finer grain NDC makes available.
\nPrice, even a well-normalised offer price, is a lagging description of who bought. Search is a leading description of who is still looking. City pair, dates, and passenger mix are visible in the request before any fare is returned. That is real-world demand, not demand inferred from the ticket that happened to clear.
\nThe idea is not new. Analysts have treated search as a leading indicator for years. What is new is that the signal is becoming usable at commercial scale, including in indirect, once Offer and Order carries first-party grain beyond the airline’s own site. A PROS study of 27 airline clients found a Pearson correlation of 0.77 between flight search initiation and purchases. A ten per cent rise in search initiation tracked to an approximately 7.3 per cent rise in purchases, significant at p < 0.01 (PROS, 2025). That is not a metaphor about “intent.” It is a measured relationship between looking and buying.
\n\nTwo cautions belong next to that result. Correlation is not a complete demand model, and search on a single carrier’s site is not the market. The study is still sufficient for the claim this essay needs. Search volume, by market and by passenger mix, is a finer reading of who remains in the funnel than the fare that closed yesterday. Commercial teams that treat look traffic only as a cost, the look-to-book problem in the first essay, are throwing away the information the cost produces.
\n\nThe same grain has a second cut: channel. Direct, TMC, OTA, and brick-and-mortar retail do not sample the same traveller. They do not respond to the same events. A single market number averaged across them hides the movement that revenue management, network, and sales actually have to act on.
\nThe pattern is familiar even before any one carrier’s house file is opened. Direct mixes brand-loyal demand with metasearch spill and tends to show a slight yield premium. TMC demand is managed corporate traffic: policy, duty of care, shorter booking windows, international and long-haul weight, a clearer premium-cabin skew, and a material yield premium. OTA demand is price-led leisure, more domestic, more economy, longer advance purchase, and a yield discount. Retail agencies sit between those poles; advice-led leisure, more international than the OTA, mixed cabin, a smaller discount. House metrics used in the underlying briefing put illustrative yield indices at 1.05 direct, 1.20 TMC, 0.80 OTA, and 0.90 retail against an airline average of 1.00. The levels will differ by carrier. The structure does not.
\n\nAdvance-purchase and entity mix make the same point. A fare action that is rational against OTA leisure six to twelve weeks out can be the wrong action against TMC demand one to three weeks out on the same city pair. Network decisions that treat “the market” as one series will misread a channel mix shift as a demand shift. Loyalty and marketing, looking only at cleared tickets, will miss where the looking has already moved.
\nEach channel is therefore a demand sample with utility beyond sales reporting. Revenue management can see whether a weakness is concentrated in price-led leisure or in managed corporate. Network can see whether a route’s apparent softness is an OTA phenomenon. Distribution can see whether an indirect construct is underselling a product that direct is clearing. Finance can see yield as a portfolio of populations rather than as one average. That is the operational meaning of “one grain, two jobs.” The same offer-and-search file that supports competitive comparison also supports a demand reading the older fare file could not produce.
\nThe payoff is organisational rather than technical. Pricing, revenue management, network, and distribution have always needed the same competitive picture. They have not always been looking at the same object. Filed fares gave them a shared number and a shared fiction: that the number was the product. Offer-level data, once normalised, gives them a shared object that matches what the traveller was shown. Search-level data gives them a shared leading indicator. Channel cuts give them the populations inside the average.
\nNone of that requires a new commercial question. It requires admitting that the question (where do we sit, and who is still looking) cannot be answered by a headline fare pulled on a cycle. NDC and Offer and Order do not automatically produce the answer. They produce the grain. The work is to keep the grain comparable across carriers and usable across functions.
\n\nThe third essay turns to the wave after this one. Travellers are already using AI to plan and book. The rails for that behaviour are being built by platforms that are not travel consortia. New query types will not look like a GDS fill. The industry will have to decide whether the storehouse for those queries is a neutral layer or a new choke point. The offer-and-intent file described here is what that next layer will either extend or bypass.
\n \n","postBodyRss":"
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
The catalyst is not a new idea about retailing. It is a change in what indirect channels can carry. Under EDIFACT, the airline saw a filed fare, a class, and a coarse outcome. Direct channels already had finer grain: first-party search, a live offer, and a result. NDC and Offer and Order put that same grain into the indirect path. House splits on the order of 60 per cent direct and 40 per cent indirect are a reminder of why that matters. A large minority of the business is no longer visible only as a filed ladder. It can be visible as an offer assembled at shop time, with the search that preceded it.
\nOnce that is true, two jobs open at once. The commercial team can compare the whole product, not the headline fare. It can also treat intent as a measured signal rather than as exhaust from the booking.
\n\n
The older comparison was simple because the object was simple. One published price, one booking class, the same product in every channel, a ladder the market could see. Benchmarking meant pulling the fare and ranking it.
\nThe object is no longer simple. Price arrives with brand, bundle, and ancillary, assembled at the moment of shop. Channels receive different content and different prices. A competitor may never file the offer that a traveller actually sees. Ranking the lowest available fare across that landscape is a ranking of unlike products unless the tiers have been normalised first.
\nThat is a retailing problem wearing a data problem’s clothes. Airlines have spent a decade telling the market they are becoming retailers. Retail comparison requires a common shelf. “Basic” on one carrier is not automatically “Light” on another. Seat selection, baggage, change privileges, and lounge access move in and out of the fare by market, by channel, and by passenger mix. Until those attributes sit in a shared map, a pricing meeting that debates a two-dollar gap is debating a number that may be attached to two different products.
\n\nChannel-specific construction makes the map more necessary, not less. Direct, TMC, OTA, and retail agency are not four windows onto one offer. They are four construction environments. A filed-fare file cannot say whether an indirect weakness is a price problem or a merchandising problem. An offer-level file can, but only after brand names and bundle elements have been forced into comparable tiers. The unglamorous work described in the first essay (normalise, then rank) is the price of using the finer grain NDC makes available.
\nPrice, even a well-normalised offer price, is a lagging description of who bought. Search is a leading description of who is still looking. City pair, dates, and passenger mix are visible in the request before any fare is returned. That is real-world demand, not demand inferred from the ticket that happened to clear.
\nThe idea is not new. Analysts have treated search as a leading indicator for years. What is new is that the signal is becoming usable at commercial scale, including in indirect, once Offer and Order carries first-party grain beyond the airline’s own site. A PROS study of 27 airline clients found a Pearson correlation of 0.77 between flight search initiation and purchases. A ten per cent rise in search initiation tracked to an approximately 7.3 per cent rise in purchases, significant at p < 0.01 (PROS, 2025). That is not a metaphor about “intent.” It is a measured relationship between looking and buying.
\n\nTwo cautions belong next to that result. Correlation is not a complete demand model, and search on a single carrier’s site is not the market. The study is still sufficient for the claim this essay needs. Search volume, by market and by passenger mix, is a finer reading of who remains in the funnel than the fare that closed yesterday. Commercial teams that treat look traffic only as a cost, the look-to-book problem in the first essay, are throwing away the information the cost produces.
\n\nThe same grain has a second cut: channel. Direct, TMC, OTA, and brick-and-mortar retail do not sample the same traveller. They do not respond to the same events. A single market number averaged across them hides the movement that revenue management, network, and sales actually have to act on.
\nThe pattern is familiar even before any one carrier’s house file is opened. Direct mixes brand-loyal demand with metasearch spill and tends to show a slight yield premium. TMC demand is managed corporate traffic: policy, duty of care, shorter booking windows, international and long-haul weight, a clearer premium-cabin skew, and a material yield premium. OTA demand is price-led leisure, more domestic, more economy, longer advance purchase, and a yield discount. Retail agencies sit between those poles; advice-led leisure, more international than the OTA, mixed cabin, a smaller discount. House metrics used in the underlying briefing put illustrative yield indices at 1.05 direct, 1.20 TMC, 0.80 OTA, and 0.90 retail against an airline average of 1.00. The levels will differ by carrier. The structure does not.
\n\nAdvance-purchase and entity mix make the same point. A fare action that is rational against OTA leisure six to twelve weeks out can be the wrong action against TMC demand one to three weeks out on the same city pair. Network decisions that treat “the market” as one series will misread a channel mix shift as a demand shift. Loyalty and marketing, looking only at cleared tickets, will miss where the looking has already moved.
\nEach channel is therefore a demand sample with utility beyond sales reporting. Revenue management can see whether a weakness is concentrated in price-led leisure or in managed corporate. Network can see whether a route’s apparent softness is an OTA phenomenon. Distribution can see whether an indirect construct is underselling a product that direct is clearing. Finance can see yield as a portfolio of populations rather than as one average. That is the operational meaning of “one grain, two jobs.” The same offer-and-search file that supports competitive comparison also supports a demand reading the older fare file could not produce.
\nThe payoff is organisational rather than technical. Pricing, revenue management, network, and distribution have always needed the same competitive picture. They have not always been looking at the same object. Filed fares gave them a shared number and a shared fiction: that the number was the product. Offer-level data, once normalised, gives them a shared object that matches what the traveller was shown. Search-level data gives them a shared leading indicator. Channel cuts give them the populations inside the average.
\nNone of that requires a new commercial question. It requires admitting that the question (where do we sit, and who is still looking) cannot be answered by a headline fare pulled on a cycle. NDC and Offer and Order do not automatically produce the answer. They produce the grain. The work is to keep the grain comparable across carriers and usable across functions.
\n\nThe third essay turns to the wave after this one. Travellers are already using AI to plan and book. The rails for that behaviour are being built by platforms that are not travel consortia. New query types will not look like a GDS fill. The industry will have to decide whether the storehouse for those queries is a neutral layer or a new choke point. The offer-and-intent file described here is what that next layer will either extend or bypass.
\n \n","postEmailContent":"
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
The catalyst is not a new idea about retailing. It is a change in what indirect channels can carry. Under EDIFACT, the airline saw a filed fare, a class, and a coarse outcome. Direct channels already had finer grain: first-party search, a live offer, and a result. NDC and Offer and Order put that same grain into the indirect path. House splits on the order of 60 per cent direct and 40 per cent indirect are a reminder of why that matters. A large minority of the business is no longer visible only as a filed ladder. It can be visible as an offer assembled at shop time, with the search that preceded it.
\nOnce that is true, two jobs open at once. The commercial team can compare the whole product, not the headline fare. It can also treat intent as a measured signal rather than as exhaust from the booking.
\n\n
The older comparison was simple because the object was simple. One published price, one booking class, the same product in every channel, a ladder the market could see. Benchmarking meant pulling the fare and ranking it.
\nThe object is no longer simple. Price arrives with brand, bundle, and ancillary, assembled at the moment of shop. Channels receive different content and different prices. A competitor may never file the offer that a traveller actually sees. Ranking the lowest available fare across that landscape is a ranking of unlike products unless the tiers have been normalised first.
\nThat is a retailing problem wearing a data problem’s clothes. Airlines have spent a decade telling the market they are becoming retailers. Retail comparison requires a common shelf. “Basic” on one carrier is not automatically “Light” on another. Seat selection, baggage, change privileges, and lounge access move in and out of the fare by market, by channel, and by passenger mix. Until those attributes sit in a shared map, a pricing meeting that debates a two-dollar gap is debating a number that may be attached to two different products.
\n\nChannel-specific construction makes the map more necessary, not less. Direct, TMC, OTA, and retail agency are not four windows onto one offer. They are four construction environments. A filed-fare file cannot say whether an indirect weakness is a price problem or a merchandising problem. An offer-level file can, but only after brand names and bundle elements have been forced into comparable tiers. The unglamorous work described in the first essay (normalise, then rank) is the price of using the finer grain NDC makes available.
\nPrice, even a well-normalised offer price, is a lagging description of who bought. Search is a leading description of who is still looking. City pair, dates, and passenger mix are visible in the request before any fare is returned. That is real-world demand, not demand inferred from the ticket that happened to clear.
\nThe idea is not new. Analysts have treated search as a leading indicator for years. What is new is that the signal is becoming usable at commercial scale, including in indirect, once Offer and Order carries first-party grain beyond the airline’s own site. A PROS study of 27 airline clients found a Pearson correlation of 0.77 between flight search initiation and purchases. A ten per cent rise in search initiation tracked to an approximately 7.3 per cent rise in purchases, significant at p < 0.01 (PROS, 2025). That is not a metaphor about “intent.” It is a measured relationship between looking and buying.
\n\nTwo cautions belong next to that result. Correlation is not a complete demand model, and search on a single carrier’s site is not the market. The study is still sufficient for the claim this essay needs. Search volume, by market and by passenger mix, is a finer reading of who remains in the funnel than the fare that closed yesterday. Commercial teams that treat look traffic only as a cost, the look-to-book problem in the first essay, are throwing away the information the cost produces.
\n\nThe same grain has a second cut: channel. Direct, TMC, OTA, and brick-and-mortar retail do not sample the same traveller. They do not respond to the same events. A single market number averaged across them hides the movement that revenue management, network, and sales actually have to act on.
\nThe pattern is familiar even before any one carrier’s house file is opened. Direct mixes brand-loyal demand with metasearch spill and tends to show a slight yield premium. TMC demand is managed corporate traffic: policy, duty of care, shorter booking windows, international and long-haul weight, a clearer premium-cabin skew, and a material yield premium. OTA demand is price-led leisure, more domestic, more economy, longer advance purchase, and a yield discount. Retail agencies sit between those poles; advice-led leisure, more international than the OTA, mixed cabin, a smaller discount. House metrics used in the underlying briefing put illustrative yield indices at 1.05 direct, 1.20 TMC, 0.80 OTA, and 0.90 retail against an airline average of 1.00. The levels will differ by carrier. The structure does not.
\n\nAdvance-purchase and entity mix make the same point. A fare action that is rational against OTA leisure six to twelve weeks out can be the wrong action against TMC demand one to three weeks out on the same city pair. Network decisions that treat “the market” as one series will misread a channel mix shift as a demand shift. Loyalty and marketing, looking only at cleared tickets, will miss where the looking has already moved.
\nEach channel is therefore a demand sample with utility beyond sales reporting. Revenue management can see whether a weakness is concentrated in price-led leisure or in managed corporate. Network can see whether a route’s apparent softness is an OTA phenomenon. Distribution can see whether an indirect construct is underselling a product that direct is clearing. Finance can see yield as a portfolio of populations rather than as one average. That is the operational meaning of “one grain, two jobs.” The same offer-and-search file that supports competitive comparison also supports a demand reading the older fare file could not produce.
\nThe payoff is organisational rather than technical. Pricing, revenue management, network, and distribution have always needed the same competitive picture. They have not always been looking at the same object. Filed fares gave them a shared number and a shared fiction: that the number was the product. Offer-level data, once normalised, gives them a shared object that matches what the traveller was shown. Search-level data gives them a shared leading indicator. Channel cuts give them the populations inside the average.
\nNone of that requires a new commercial question. It requires admitting that the question (where do we sit, and who is still looking) cannot be answered by a headline fare pulled on a cycle. NDC and Offer and Order do not automatically produce the answer. They produce the grain. The work is to keep the grain comparable across carriers and usable across functions.
\n\nThe third essay turns to the wave after this one. Travellers are already using AI to plan and book. The rails for that behaviour are being built by platforms that are not travel consortia. New query types will not look like a GDS fill. The industry will have to decide whether the storehouse for those queries is a neutral layer or a new choke point. The offer-and-intent file described here is what that next layer will either extend or bypass.
\n \n","rssSummary":"
This is the second of three essays on the changing shape of airline commercial intelligence. The first argued that competitive fare benchmarking remains the daily discipline, but that continuous pricing and fragmenting products are dissolving the snapshot underneath it. This essay takes up the imminent wave: the unit of comparison moving from a filed fare to a constructed offer, and demand becoming readable from search and channel - before any price is shown.
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries.
","has_user_changes":true,"password":null,"last_edit_session_id":null,"last_edit_update_id":null,"html_title":"China-US Aviation Post-Pandemic: Capacity, the Bilateral Agreement and Gains for Incheon","tag_ids":[66382214546],"topic_ids":[66382214546],"campaign_name":"Q4 2026 content","campaign_utm":"55431841-Q4%202026%20content","enable_google_amp_output_override":false,"featured_image":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/US-China%20capacity%20post%20pandemic.jpg","featured_image_alt_text":"US-China airline capacity post-pandemic","head_html":null,"is_crawlable_by_bots":false,"link_rel_canonical_url":"","meta_description":"Explore the shifts in China-US aviation post-pandemic, revealing capacity challenges, market adaptations, and the rise of transit hubs like Seoul Incheon.","post_body":"For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries. The number of scheduled flights between China and the US grew rapidly between 2000 and 2019. But since the pandemic, while most markets have recovered capacity, flights scheduled between two of the world’s largest markets are yet to regain 2010 levels. Why is this, and are there any winners in this situation?
\n\n\n
\n
While there has never been an “open skies” agreement between China and the US, a series of liberalisation protocols in 2004 and 2007 had encouraged a rapid programme of air service development between the two countries, as the chart above illustrates.
\nThe initial air service agreement had been built around an even share of frequency from Chinese- and US-registered airlines but the liberalisation of the bilateral agreement in the mid-2000s was perfectly aligned with growth in international services from Chinese airlines, many of whom operated Boeing aircraft. At the time this was a positive for US authorities.
\n\n\n
From a near 50/50 share of frequency in 2005, by 2018 Chinese airlines had increased their frequency share to nearly 60% as the number of airport pairs operated increased and secondary Chinese markets secured services. In 2005 just nine airport pairs were served and by 2018 that had increased to 45; of those 45 airport pairs, only 18 were operated by US-based carriers. Clearly, China’s airlines were expanding their networks faster and deeper than their US counterparts and leakage of traffic through those secondary Chinese hubs and routes felt like a loss of potential traffic for the US airlines.
\nTwo competitive factors further frustrated the US-based carriers at the time, one of which was impossible to solve:
\nAgainst such a market backdrop the 2020 pandemic provided a great opportunity to reset the bilateral agreement and return to a more equitable share of frequency. And the consequence of that reset has been dramatic.
\nIn light of the pandemic, the US requested a reset of the agreement, placing a limit of 50 weekly flights from both countries’ airlines; a significant reduction on the 2018 average of 343 weekly flights. Boeing has certainly lost aircraft orders because of this change in bilateral agreement, but what were the other effects?
\nThe loss of 243 weekly flights - which is more than the weekly count of flights between London and New York - inevitably provided an opportunity for some, and in this case Seoul Incheon Airport has certainly gained.
\nIncheon was well placed to capitalise on the loss of direct services between China and the US and has become the major hub airport in Northeast Asia . In 2018, an estimated 218,000 passengers between China and the United States connected via Incheon; in 2024 the volumes had increased four-fold to 855,000 as a combination of new destinations and increased frequency to China created an alternate route for those wishing to travel.
\nDecreases in US – China capacity and the related increase in passenger volume at Incheon highlight that however politics may intervene in a market, the market will react by finding alternate ways to travel between two points. In this case Incheon is the benefactor. Similarly, Istanbul has recently benefited from the loss of direct access between Europe and Russia.
\nUltimately, travellers will find solutions to changes in capacity very quickly, and perhaps as geopolitical situations unfold -as they always do – it is wise to take a long-sighted view of decisions made.
\nOAG Analyser+ provides independent airline schedule data, including the 7-day forward schedule, covering 900+ airlines. Explore China-US routes in OAG Analyser or contact us for API and Snowflake access.
\n","public_access_rules":[],"public_access_rules_enabled":false,"use_featured_image":true,"layout_sections":{},"publish_immediately":true,"published_by_id":47234281,"published_at":1792663422767,"rss_body":"
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries. The number of scheduled flights between China and the US grew rapidly between 2000 and 2019. But since the pandemic, while most markets have recovered capacity, flights scheduled between two of the world’s largest markets are yet to regain 2010 levels. Why is this, and are there any winners in this situation?
\n\n\n
\n
While there has never been an “open skies” agreement between China and the US, a series of liberalisation protocols in 2004 and 2007 had encouraged a rapid programme of air service development between the two countries, as the chart above illustrates.
\nThe initial air service agreement had been built around an even share of frequency from Chinese- and US-registered airlines but the liberalisation of the bilateral agreement in the mid-2000s was perfectly aligned with growth in international services from Chinese airlines, many of whom operated Boeing aircraft. At the time this was a positive for US authorities.
\n\n\n
From a near 50/50 share of frequency in 2005, by 2018 Chinese airlines had increased their frequency share to nearly 60% as the number of airport pairs operated increased and secondary Chinese markets secured services. In 2005 just nine airport pairs were served and by 2018 that had increased to 45; of those 45 airport pairs, only 18 were operated by US-based carriers. Clearly, China’s airlines were expanding their networks faster and deeper than their US counterparts and leakage of traffic through those secondary Chinese hubs and routes felt like a loss of potential traffic for the US airlines.
\nTwo competitive factors further frustrated the US-based carriers at the time, one of which was impossible to solve:
\nAgainst such a market backdrop the 2020 pandemic provided a great opportunity to reset the bilateral agreement and return to a more equitable share of frequency. And the consequence of that reset has been dramatic.
\nIn light of the pandemic, the US requested a reset of the agreement, placing a limit of 50 weekly flights from both countries’ airlines; a significant reduction on the 2018 average of 343 weekly flights. Boeing has certainly lost aircraft orders because of this change in bilateral agreement, but what were the other effects?
\nThe loss of 243 weekly flights - which is more than the weekly count of flights between London and New York - inevitably provided an opportunity for some, and in this case Seoul Incheon Airport has certainly gained.
\nIncheon was well placed to capitalise on the loss of direct services between China and the US and has become the major hub airport in Northeast Asia . In 2018, an estimated 218,000 passengers between China and the United States connected via Incheon; in 2024 the volumes had increased four-fold to 855,000 as a combination of new destinations and increased frequency to China created an alternate route for those wishing to travel.
\nDecreases in US – China capacity and the related increase in passenger volume at Incheon highlight that however politics may intervene in a market, the market will react by finding alternate ways to travel between two points. In this case Incheon is the benefactor. Similarly, Istanbul has recently benefited from the loss of direct access between Europe and Russia.
\nUltimately, travellers will find solutions to changes in capacity very quickly, and perhaps as geopolitical situations unfold -as they always do – it is wise to take a long-sighted view of decisions made.
\nOAG Analyser+ provides independent airline schedule data, including the 7-day forward schedule, covering 900+ airlines. Explore China-US routes in OAG Analyser or contact us for API and Snowflake access.
\n","rss_summary":"
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries.
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The number of scheduled flights between China and the US grew rapidly between 2000 and 2019. But since the pandemic, while most markets have recovered capacity, flights scheduled between two of the world’s largest markets are yet to regain 2010 levels. Why is this, and are there any winners in this situation?
\n\n\n
\n
While there has never been an “open skies” agreement between China and the US, a series of liberalisation protocols in 2004 and 2007 had encouraged a rapid programme of air service development between the two countries, as the chart above illustrates.
\nThe initial air service agreement had been built around an even share of frequency from Chinese- and US-registered airlines but the liberalisation of the bilateral agreement in the mid-2000s was perfectly aligned with growth in international services from Chinese airlines, many of whom operated Boeing aircraft. At the time this was a positive for US authorities.
\n\n\n
From a near 50/50 share of frequency in 2005, by 2018 Chinese airlines had increased their frequency share to nearly 60% as the number of airport pairs operated increased and secondary Chinese markets secured services. In 2005 just nine airport pairs were served and by 2018 that had increased to 45; of those 45 airport pairs, only 18 were operated by US-based carriers. Clearly, China’s airlines were expanding their networks faster and deeper than their US counterparts and leakage of traffic through those secondary Chinese hubs and routes felt like a loss of potential traffic for the US airlines.
\nTwo competitive factors further frustrated the US-based carriers at the time, one of which was impossible to solve:
\nAgainst such a market backdrop the 2020 pandemic provided a great opportunity to reset the bilateral agreement and return to a more equitable share of frequency. And the consequence of that reset has been dramatic.
\nIn light of the pandemic, the US requested a reset of the agreement, placing a limit of 50 weekly flights from both countries’ airlines; a significant reduction on the 2018 average of 343 weekly flights. Boeing has certainly lost aircraft orders because of this change in bilateral agreement, but what were the other effects?
\nThe loss of 243 weekly flights - which is more than the weekly count of flights between London and New York - inevitably provided an opportunity for some, and in this case Seoul Incheon Airport has certainly gained.
\nIncheon was well placed to capitalise on the loss of direct services between China and the US and has become the major hub airport in Northeast Asia . In 2018, an estimated 218,000 passengers between China and the United States connected via Incheon; in 2024 the volumes had increased four-fold to 855,000 as a combination of new destinations and increased frequency to China created an alternate route for those wishing to travel.
\nDecreases in US – China capacity and the related increase in passenger volume at Incheon highlight that however politics may intervene in a market, the market will react by finding alternate ways to travel between two points. In this case Incheon is the benefactor. Similarly, Istanbul has recently benefited from the loss of direct access between Europe and Russia.
\nUltimately, travellers will find solutions to changes in capacity very quickly, and perhaps as geopolitical situations unfold -as they always do – it is wise to take a long-sighted view of decisions made.
\nOAG Analyser+ provides independent airline schedule data, including the 7-day forward schedule, covering 900+ airlines. Explore China-US routes in OAG Analyser or contact us for API and Snowflake access.
\n","postBodyRss":"
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries. The number of scheduled flights between China and the US grew rapidly between 2000 and 2019. But since the pandemic, while most markets have recovered capacity, flights scheduled between two of the world’s largest markets are yet to regain 2010 levels. Why is this, and are there any winners in this situation?
\n\n\n
\n
While there has never been an “open skies” agreement between China and the US, a series of liberalisation protocols in 2004 and 2007 had encouraged a rapid programme of air service development between the two countries, as the chart above illustrates.
\nThe initial air service agreement had been built around an even share of frequency from Chinese- and US-registered airlines but the liberalisation of the bilateral agreement in the mid-2000s was perfectly aligned with growth in international services from Chinese airlines, many of whom operated Boeing aircraft. At the time this was a positive for US authorities.
\n\n\n
From a near 50/50 share of frequency in 2005, by 2018 Chinese airlines had increased their frequency share to nearly 60% as the number of airport pairs operated increased and secondary Chinese markets secured services. In 2005 just nine airport pairs were served and by 2018 that had increased to 45; of those 45 airport pairs, only 18 were operated by US-based carriers. Clearly, China’s airlines were expanding their networks faster and deeper than their US counterparts and leakage of traffic through those secondary Chinese hubs and routes felt like a loss of potential traffic for the US airlines.
\nTwo competitive factors further frustrated the US-based carriers at the time, one of which was impossible to solve:
\nAgainst such a market backdrop the 2020 pandemic provided a great opportunity to reset the bilateral agreement and return to a more equitable share of frequency. And the consequence of that reset has been dramatic.
\nIn light of the pandemic, the US requested a reset of the agreement, placing a limit of 50 weekly flights from both countries’ airlines; a significant reduction on the 2018 average of 343 weekly flights. Boeing has certainly lost aircraft orders because of this change in bilateral agreement, but what were the other effects?
\nThe loss of 243 weekly flights - which is more than the weekly count of flights between London and New York - inevitably provided an opportunity for some, and in this case Seoul Incheon Airport has certainly gained.
\nIncheon was well placed to capitalise on the loss of direct services between China and the US and has become the major hub airport in Northeast Asia . In 2018, an estimated 218,000 passengers between China and the United States connected via Incheon; in 2024 the volumes had increased four-fold to 855,000 as a combination of new destinations and increased frequency to China created an alternate route for those wishing to travel.
\nDecreases in US – China capacity and the related increase in passenger volume at Incheon highlight that however politics may intervene in a market, the market will react by finding alternate ways to travel between two points. In this case Incheon is the benefactor. Similarly, Istanbul has recently benefited from the loss of direct access between Europe and Russia.
\nUltimately, travellers will find solutions to changes in capacity very quickly, and perhaps as geopolitical situations unfold -as they always do – it is wise to take a long-sighted view of decisions made.
\nOAG Analyser+ provides independent airline schedule data, including the 7-day forward schedule, covering 900+ airlines. Explore China-US routes in OAG Analyser or contact us for API and Snowflake access.
\n","postEmailContent":"
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries.
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\n\n\n
\n
While there has never been an “open skies” agreement between China and the US, a series of liberalisation protocols in 2004 and 2007 had encouraged a rapid programme of air service development between the two countries, as the chart above illustrates.
\nThe initial air service agreement had been built around an even share of frequency from Chinese- and US-registered airlines but the liberalisation of the bilateral agreement in the mid-2000s was perfectly aligned with growth in international services from Chinese airlines, many of whom operated Boeing aircraft. At the time this was a positive for US authorities.
\n\n\n
From a near 50/50 share of frequency in 2005, by 2018 Chinese airlines had increased their frequency share to nearly 60% as the number of airport pairs operated increased and secondary Chinese markets secured services. In 2005 just nine airport pairs were served and by 2018 that had increased to 45; of those 45 airport pairs, only 18 were operated by US-based carriers. Clearly, China’s airlines were expanding their networks faster and deeper than their US counterparts and leakage of traffic through those secondary Chinese hubs and routes felt like a loss of potential traffic for the US airlines.
\nTwo competitive factors further frustrated the US-based carriers at the time, one of which was impossible to solve:
\nAgainst such a market backdrop the 2020 pandemic provided a great opportunity to reset the bilateral agreement and return to a more equitable share of frequency. And the consequence of that reset has been dramatic.
\nIn light of the pandemic, the US requested a reset of the agreement, placing a limit of 50 weekly flights from both countries’ airlines; a significant reduction on the 2018 average of 343 weekly flights. Boeing has certainly lost aircraft orders because of this change in bilateral agreement, but what were the other effects?
\nThe loss of 243 weekly flights - which is more than the weekly count of flights between London and New York - inevitably provided an opportunity for some, and in this case Seoul Incheon Airport has certainly gained.
\nIncheon was well placed to capitalise on the loss of direct services between China and the US and has become the major hub airport in Northeast Asia . In 2018, an estimated 218,000 passengers between China and the United States connected via Incheon; in 2024 the volumes had increased four-fold to 855,000 as a combination of new destinations and increased frequency to China created an alternate route for those wishing to travel.
\nDecreases in US – China capacity and the related increase in passenger volume at Incheon highlight that however politics may intervene in a market, the market will react by finding alternate ways to travel between two points. In this case Incheon is the benefactor. Similarly, Istanbul has recently benefited from the loss of direct access between Europe and Russia.
\nUltimately, travellers will find solutions to changes in capacity very quickly, and perhaps as geopolitical situations unfold -as they always do – it is wise to take a long-sighted view of decisions made.
\nOAG Analyser+ provides independent airline schedule data, including the 7-day forward schedule, covering 900+ airlines. Explore China-US routes in OAG Analyser or contact us for API and Snowflake access.
\n","rssSummary":"
For many years, capacity growth between China and the United States was a symbol of globalisation, emergent markets and - most importantly - increasing trade and tourism between the two countries.
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\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","has_user_changes":true,"password":null,"last_edit_session_id":null,"last_edit_update_id":null,"html_title":null,"tag_ids":[66382214546],"topic_ids":[66382214546],"campaign_name":"Q4 2026 content","campaign_utm":"55431841-Q4%202026%20content","enable_google_amp_output_override":false,"featured_image":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/easyJet%20%281%29.jpg","featured_image_alt_text":"","head_html":null,"is_crawlable_by_bots":false,"link_rel_canonical_url":"","meta_description":"easyJet is making cautious capacity cuts for winter, adjusting to shifting market conditions and demand, mirroring trends across the European airline sector.","post_body":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
\neasyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
\nAcross the ten largest country markets:
\nOutside of the ten largest markets:
\n\n
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
\nTwo airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
\nOutside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
\n\n\n
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
\nPositively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
\n\nMaking such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
\n","public_access_rules":[],"public_access_rules_enabled":false,"use_featured_image":true,"layout_sections":{},"publish_immediately":true,"published_by_id":11440745,"published_at":1792508497674,"rss_body":"
If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
\neasyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
\nAcross the ten largest country markets:
\nOutside of the ten largest markets:
\n\n
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
\nTwo airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
\nOutside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
\n\n\n
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
\nPositively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
\n\nMaking such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
\n","rss_summary":"
If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","scheduled_update_date":0,"blog_publish_to_social_media_task":"DONE_NOT_SENT","blog_post_schedule_task_uid":null},"metaDescription":"easyJet is making cautious capacity cuts for winter, adjusting to shifting market conditions and demand, mirroring trends across the European airline sector.","metaKeywords":null,"migratingUserId":null,"migrationAttemptId":null,"migrationStatus":null,"name":"Cautious Capacity Cuts from easyJet for the Winter Season","nextPostFeaturedImage":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/tap-air.jpg","nextPostFeaturedImageAltText":"","nextPostName":"TAP Air Portugal & Lufthansa Stars Are Aligned","nextPostSlug":"blog/tap-air-portugal-lufthansa-stars-are-aligned","pageExpiryDate":null,"pageExpiryEnabled":null,"pageExpiryRedirectId":null,"pageExpiryRedirectUrl":null,"pageRedirected":false,"pageTitle":"Cautious Capacity Cuts from easyJet for the Winter Season","parentBlog":{"absoluteUrl":"https://www.oag.com/blog","allowComments":false,"ampBodyColor":"#404040","ampBodyFont":"'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif","ampBodyFontSize":"18","ampCustomCss":"","ampHeaderBackgroundColor":"#ffffff","ampHeaderColor":"#1e1e1e","ampHeaderFont":"'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif","ampHeaderFontSize":"36","ampLinkColor":"#416bb3","ampLogoAlt":"OAG Black 2018","ampLogoHeight":594,"ampLogoSrc":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/OAG%20Black%202018.png","ampLogoWidth":945,"analyticsPageId":2547580647,"attachedStylesheets":[],"audienceAccess":"PUBLIC","businessUnitId":null,"captchaAfterDays":7,"captchaAlways":false,"categoryId":3,"cdnPurgeEmbargoTime":null,"closeCommentsOlder":0,"commentDateFormat":"medium","commentFormGuid":"5fddd154-8ed7-470d-bdc0-b3267efba414","commentMaxThreadDepth":4,"commentModeration":false,"commentNotificationEmails":["katy.ludwell@oag.com","hiten.patel@oag.com"],"commentShouldCreateContact":false,"commentVerificationText":"Thank you for your comment. 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\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
\neasyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
\nAcross the ten largest country markets:
\nOutside of the ten largest markets:
\n\n
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
\nTwo airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
\nOutside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
\n\n\n
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
\nPositively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
\n\nMaking such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
\n","postBodyRss":"
If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
\neasyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
\nAcross the ten largest country markets:
\nOutside of the ten largest markets:
\n\n
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
\nTwo airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
\nOutside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
\n\n\n
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
\nPositively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
\n\nMaking such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
\n","postEmailContent":"
If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","postFeaturedImageIfEnabled":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/easyJet%20%281%29.jpg","postListContent":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","postListSummaryFeaturedImage":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/easyJet%20%281%29.jpg","postRssContent":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","postRssSummaryFeaturedImage":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/easyJet%20%281%29.jpg","postSummary":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","postSummaryRss":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
","postTemplate":"OAG 2026/templates/blog/clean-pro-blog-post.html","previewImageSrc":null,"previewKey":"rdBwyKsX","previousPostFeaturedImage":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/US-China%20capacity%20post%20pandemic.jpg","previousPostFeaturedImageAltText":"US-China airline capacity post-pandemic","previousPostName":"How Has China-US Aviation Changed Post-Pandemic?","previousPostSlug":"blog/china-us-aviation-post-pandemic","processingStatus":"PUBLISHED","propertyForDynamicPageCanonicalUrl":null,"propertyForDynamicPageFeaturedImage":null,"propertyForDynamicPageMetaDescription":null,"propertyForDynamicPageSlug":null,"propertyForDynamicPageTitle":null,"publicAccessRules":[],"publicAccessRulesEnabled":false,"publishDate":1792508184000,"publishDateLocalTime":1792508184000,"publishDateLocalized":{"date":1792508184000,"format":"dd MMMM yyyy","language":"en_GB"},"publishImmediately":true,"publishTimezoneOffset":null,"publishedAt":1792508497674,"publishedByEmail":null,"publishedById":11440745,"publishedByName":null,"publishedUrl":"https://www.oag.com/blog/cautious-capacity-cuts-from-easyjet-for-the-winter-season","resolvedDomain":"www.oag.com","resolvedLanguage":null,"rssBody":"If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
\neasyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
\nAcross the ten largest country markets:
\nOutside of the ten largest markets:
\n\n
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
\nTwo airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
\nOutside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
\n\n\n
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
\nPositively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
\n\nMaking such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
\n","rssSummary":"
If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
\nAirlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme.
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","has_user_changes":true,"password":null,"last_edit_session_id":null,"last_edit_update_id":null,"html_title":null,"tag_ids":[66382214546],"topic_ids":[66382214546],"campaign_name":null,"campaign_utm":null,"enable_google_amp_output_override":false,"featured_image":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/tap-air.jpg","featured_image_alt_text":"","head_html":null,"is_crawlable_by_bots":false,"link_rel_canonical_url":"","meta_description":"Lufthansa Group secures a 44.9% stake in TAP Air Portugal for €1.2 billion, reshaping the European aviation landscape and enhancing its position in the Brazil market.","post_body":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline. It might seem a high price to pay for a minority stake in an airline group where parts of the leading airline are still struggling to recover long after the global pandemic five years ago. But how does this acquisition alter the European aviation landscape, if indeed it does?
\nAt a simple level, acquiring TAP Air Portugal adds another European airline to the group, and collectively the new group now holds a 9.5% share of all European capacity, compared to the current 8.4%. So while it adjusts capacity share, it is certainly not a significant change.
\nWithin the group, the newly adjusted capacity shares see Lufthansa’s share slipping back to 40.6%, although they remain the largest carrier with nearly three times the capacity of second-placed SWISS. TAP Air Portugal and ITA Airways both hold a 12% capacity share, slightly behind the 13% share that Austrian Airlines holds.
\n\n\n
More strategically, TAP Air Portugal provides a position for the group on the western edges of Europe and a “bridge” to Latin America, or more specifically Brazil.
\nTAP holds a 24% share of all capacity from Europe to Brazil, behind only LATAM. TAP’s strength has always been the Europe to Brazil market, and for Lufthansa the addition of the leading carrier in that market gives the group a 36% share of Europe to Brazil capacity.
\nThere's no clear conclusion to be drawn yet about a new airport in Lisbon, with no nope of this happening until at least 2034 and the planning application not expected until 2028. The current facility at Portela is at capacity and TAP naturally have the largest share of 49% of scheduled flights at Lisbon. The enlarged group will hold a 52.5% share.
\nWhen it comes to global alliances, acceptance of the Lufthansa Group's offer means no changes and avoids the movement of a carrier from one alliance to another.
\nStar Alliance holds a 52.7% share of Lisbon capacity, some ten times larger than SkyTeam, while OneWorld have a 4% share of the capacity. TAP holds an 87% capacity share of the Star Alliance presence in Lisbon.
\nAirline acquisitions are frequently built on the potential for cost and operational benefits, and this would seem to be the case here.
\nTAP Air Portugal exclusively fly Airbus aircraft while Lufthansa’s fleet is 83% Airbus, ITA Airways are also a 100% Airbus client, and SWISS are a majority operator of the manufacturer’s equipment. All of which could allow for significant cross-use of resources and knowledge sharing.
\nUltimately, the pursuit of TAP Air Portugal was a two-horse race once IAG were out of the picture. Air France/KLM will obviously be disappointed at the outcome, but only time will tell how disappointed; achieving the cost and network efficiencies that are part of the due diligence process can be time-consuming and frequently fail to deliver on the initial promises. Time will tell and we will be following with interest.
\n","public_access_rules":[],"public_access_rules_enabled":false,"use_featured_image":true,"layout_sections":{},"publish_immediately":true,"published_by_id":47234281,"published_at":1792070375094,"rss_body":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline. It might seem a high price to pay for a minority stake in an airline group where parts of the leading airline are still struggling to recover long after the global pandemic five years ago. But how does this acquisition alter the European aviation landscape, if indeed it does?
\nAt a simple level, acquiring TAP Air Portugal adds another European airline to the group, and collectively the new group now holds a 9.5% share of all European capacity, compared to the current 8.4%. So while it adjusts capacity share, it is certainly not a significant change.
\nWithin the group, the newly adjusted capacity shares see Lufthansa’s share slipping back to 40.6%, although they remain the largest carrier with nearly three times the capacity of second-placed SWISS. TAP Air Portugal and ITA Airways both hold a 12% capacity share, slightly behind the 13% share that Austrian Airlines holds.
\n\n\n
More strategically, TAP Air Portugal provides a position for the group on the western edges of Europe and a “bridge” to Latin America, or more specifically Brazil.
\nTAP holds a 24% share of all capacity from Europe to Brazil, behind only LATAM. TAP’s strength has always been the Europe to Brazil market, and for Lufthansa the addition of the leading carrier in that market gives the group a 36% share of Europe to Brazil capacity.
\nThere's no clear conclusion to be drawn yet about a new airport in Lisbon, with no nope of this happening until at least 2034 and the planning application not expected until 2028. The current facility at Portela is at capacity and TAP naturally have the largest share of 49% of scheduled flights at Lisbon. The enlarged group will hold a 52.5% share.
\nWhen it comes to global alliances, acceptance of the Lufthansa Group's offer means no changes and avoids the movement of a carrier from one alliance to another.
\nStar Alliance holds a 52.7% share of Lisbon capacity, some ten times larger than SkyTeam, while OneWorld have a 4% share of the capacity. TAP holds an 87% capacity share of the Star Alliance presence in Lisbon.
\nAirline acquisitions are frequently built on the potential for cost and operational benefits, and this would seem to be the case here.
\nTAP Air Portugal exclusively fly Airbus aircraft while Lufthansa’s fleet is 83% Airbus, ITA Airways are also a 100% Airbus client, and SWISS are a majority operator of the manufacturer’s equipment. All of which could allow for significant cross-use of resources and knowledge sharing.
\nUltimately, the pursuit of TAP Air Portugal was a two-horse race once IAG were out of the picture. Air France/KLM will obviously be disappointed at the outcome, but only time will tell how disappointed; achieving the cost and network efficiencies that are part of the due diligence process can be time-consuming and frequently fail to deliver on the initial promises. Time will tell and we will be following with interest.
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It might seem a high price to pay for a minority stake in an airline group where parts of the leading airline are still struggling to recover long after the global pandemic five years ago. But how does this acquisition alter the European aviation landscape, if indeed it does?
\nAt a simple level, acquiring TAP Air Portugal adds another European airline to the group, and collectively the new group now holds a 9.5% share of all European capacity, compared to the current 8.4%. So while it adjusts capacity share, it is certainly not a significant change.
\nWithin the group, the newly adjusted capacity shares see Lufthansa’s share slipping back to 40.6%, although they remain the largest carrier with nearly three times the capacity of second-placed SWISS. TAP Air Portugal and ITA Airways both hold a 12% capacity share, slightly behind the 13% share that Austrian Airlines holds.
\n\n\n
More strategically, TAP Air Portugal provides a position for the group on the western edges of Europe and a “bridge” to Latin America, or more specifically Brazil.
\nTAP holds a 24% share of all capacity from Europe to Brazil, behind only LATAM. TAP’s strength has always been the Europe to Brazil market, and for Lufthansa the addition of the leading carrier in that market gives the group a 36% share of Europe to Brazil capacity.
\nThere's no clear conclusion to be drawn yet about a new airport in Lisbon, with no nope of this happening until at least 2034 and the planning application not expected until 2028. The current facility at Portela is at capacity and TAP naturally have the largest share of 49% of scheduled flights at Lisbon. The enlarged group will hold a 52.5% share.
\nWhen it comes to global alliances, acceptance of the Lufthansa Group's offer means no changes and avoids the movement of a carrier from one alliance to another.
\nStar Alliance holds a 52.7% share of Lisbon capacity, some ten times larger than SkyTeam, while OneWorld have a 4% share of the capacity. TAP holds an 87% capacity share of the Star Alliance presence in Lisbon.
\nAirline acquisitions are frequently built on the potential for cost and operational benefits, and this would seem to be the case here.
\nTAP Air Portugal exclusively fly Airbus aircraft while Lufthansa’s fleet is 83% Airbus, ITA Airways are also a 100% Airbus client, and SWISS are a majority operator of the manufacturer’s equipment. All of which could allow for significant cross-use of resources and knowledge sharing.
\nUltimately, the pursuit of TAP Air Portugal was a two-horse race once IAG were out of the picture. Air France/KLM will obviously be disappointed at the outcome, but only time will tell how disappointed; achieving the cost and network efficiencies that are part of the due diligence process can be time-consuming and frequently fail to deliver on the initial promises. Time will tell and we will be following with interest.
\n","postBodyRss":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline. It might seem a high price to pay for a minority stake in an airline group where parts of the leading airline are still struggling to recover long after the global pandemic five years ago. But how does this acquisition alter the European aviation landscape, if indeed it does?
\nAt a simple level, acquiring TAP Air Portugal adds another European airline to the group, and collectively the new group now holds a 9.5% share of all European capacity, compared to the current 8.4%. So while it adjusts capacity share, it is certainly not a significant change.
\nWithin the group, the newly adjusted capacity shares see Lufthansa’s share slipping back to 40.6%, although they remain the largest carrier with nearly three times the capacity of second-placed SWISS. TAP Air Portugal and ITA Airways both hold a 12% capacity share, slightly behind the 13% share that Austrian Airlines holds.
\n\n\n
More strategically, TAP Air Portugal provides a position for the group on the western edges of Europe and a “bridge” to Latin America, or more specifically Brazil.
\nTAP holds a 24% share of all capacity from Europe to Brazil, behind only LATAM. TAP’s strength has always been the Europe to Brazil market, and for Lufthansa the addition of the leading carrier in that market gives the group a 36% share of Europe to Brazil capacity.
\nThere's no clear conclusion to be drawn yet about a new airport in Lisbon, with no nope of this happening until at least 2034 and the planning application not expected until 2028. The current facility at Portela is at capacity and TAP naturally have the largest share of 49% of scheduled flights at Lisbon. The enlarged group will hold a 52.5% share.
\nWhen it comes to global alliances, acceptance of the Lufthansa Group's offer means no changes and avoids the movement of a carrier from one alliance to another.
\nStar Alliance holds a 52.7% share of Lisbon capacity, some ten times larger than SkyTeam, while OneWorld have a 4% share of the capacity. TAP holds an 87% capacity share of the Star Alliance presence in Lisbon.
\nAirline acquisitions are frequently built on the potential for cost and operational benefits, and this would seem to be the case here.
\nTAP Air Portugal exclusively fly Airbus aircraft while Lufthansa’s fleet is 83% Airbus, ITA Airways are also a 100% Airbus client, and SWISS are a majority operator of the manufacturer’s equipment. All of which could allow for significant cross-use of resources and knowledge sharing.
\nUltimately, the pursuit of TAP Air Portugal was a two-horse race once IAG were out of the picture. Air France/KLM will obviously be disappointed at the outcome, but only time will tell how disappointed; achieving the cost and network efficiencies that are part of the due diligence process can be time-consuming and frequently fail to deliver on the initial promises. Time will tell and we will be following with interest.
\n","postEmailContent":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline.
","postFeaturedImageIfEnabled":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/tap-air.jpg","postListContent":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline.
","postListSummaryFeaturedImage":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/tap-air.jpg","postRssContent":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline.
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","postTemplate":"OAG 2026/templates/blog/clean-pro-blog-post.html","previewImageSrc":null,"previewKey":"UutDfIDs","previousPostFeaturedImage":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/easyJet%20%281%29.jpg","previousPostFeaturedImageAltText":"","previousPostName":"Cautious Capacity Cuts from easyJet for the Winter Season","previousPostSlug":"blog/cautious-capacity-cuts-from-easyjet-for-the-winter-season","processingStatus":"PUBLISHED","propertyForDynamicPageCanonicalUrl":null,"propertyForDynamicPageFeaturedImage":null,"propertyForDynamicPageMetaDescription":null,"propertyForDynamicPageSlug":null,"propertyForDynamicPageTitle":null,"publicAccessRules":[],"publicAccessRulesEnabled":false,"publishDate":1792070014000,"publishDateLocalTime":1792070014000,"publishDateLocalized":{"date":1792070014000,"format":"dd MMMM yyyy","language":"en_GB"},"publishImmediately":true,"publishTimezoneOffset":null,"publishedAt":1792070375094,"publishedByEmail":null,"publishedById":47234281,"publishedByName":null,"publishedUrl":"https://www.oag.com/blog/tap-air-portugal-lufthansa-stars-are-aligned","resolvedDomain":"www.oag.com","resolvedLanguage":null,"rssBody":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline. It might seem a high price to pay for a minority stake in an airline group where parts of the leading airline are still struggling to recover long after the global pandemic five years ago. But how does this acquisition alter the European aviation landscape, if indeed it does?
\nAt a simple level, acquiring TAP Air Portugal adds another European airline to the group, and collectively the new group now holds a 9.5% share of all European capacity, compared to the current 8.4%. So while it adjusts capacity share, it is certainly not a significant change.
\nWithin the group, the newly adjusted capacity shares see Lufthansa’s share slipping back to 40.6%, although they remain the largest carrier with nearly three times the capacity of second-placed SWISS. TAP Air Portugal and ITA Airways both hold a 12% capacity share, slightly behind the 13% share that Austrian Airlines holds.
\n\n\n
More strategically, TAP Air Portugal provides a position for the group on the western edges of Europe and a “bridge” to Latin America, or more specifically Brazil.
\nTAP holds a 24% share of all capacity from Europe to Brazil, behind only LATAM. TAP’s strength has always been the Europe to Brazil market, and for Lufthansa the addition of the leading carrier in that market gives the group a 36% share of Europe to Brazil capacity.
\nThere's no clear conclusion to be drawn yet about a new airport in Lisbon, with no nope of this happening until at least 2034 and the planning application not expected until 2028. The current facility at Portela is at capacity and TAP naturally have the largest share of 49% of scheduled flights at Lisbon. The enlarged group will hold a 52.5% share.
\nWhen it comes to global alliances, acceptance of the Lufthansa Group's offer means no changes and avoids the movement of a carrier from one alliance to another.
\nStar Alliance holds a 52.7% share of Lisbon capacity, some ten times larger than SkyTeam, while OneWorld have a 4% share of the capacity. TAP holds an 87% capacity share of the Star Alliance presence in Lisbon.
\nAirline acquisitions are frequently built on the potential for cost and operational benefits, and this would seem to be the case here.
\nTAP Air Portugal exclusively fly Airbus aircraft while Lufthansa’s fleet is 83% Airbus, ITA Airways are also a 100% Airbus client, and SWISS are a majority operator of the manufacturer’s equipment. All of which could allow for significant cross-use of resources and knowledge sharing.
\nUltimately, the pursuit of TAP Air Portugal was a two-horse race once IAG were out of the picture. Air France/KLM will obviously be disappointed at the outcome, but only time will tell how disappointed; achieving the cost and network efficiencies that are part of the due diligence process can be time-consuming and frequently fail to deliver on the initial promises. Time will tell and we will be following with interest.
\n","rssSummary":"One of the longest-running airline privatisation processes has finally been concluded, with Lufthansa Group emerging as the preferred bidder for TAP Air Portugal with a cash offer of € 1.2 billion for a 44.9% minority share of the airline.
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Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","public_access_rules":[],"public_access_rules_enabled":false,"use_featured_image":true,"layout_sections":{},"publish_immediately":true,"published_by_id":72222748,"published_at":1789640220594,"rss_body":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","rss_summary":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","postBodyRss":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","postEmailContent":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","postFeaturedImageIfEnabled":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/Using%20this%20image%20create%20a%20featured%20image%20for%20a%20blog%20entitled%20_Megahubs_%20OAGs%20ta.png","postListContent":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings. \n
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","postRssSummaryFeaturedImage":"","postSummary":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
\nMiddle East Dynamics: Riyadh and Jeddah are beginning to plateau in terms of growth, while Dubai and Doha continue to come back. Cairo's potential to position itself as a regional hub remains an open question, with the challenge of competing against established hubs and whether it can compete with the Ethiopian and Addis Ababa combination for African connectivity.
\nLow-Cost Carrier Megahubs: Kuala Lumpur tops the low-cost carrier Megahubs ranking, making it both the most connected Megahub in Asia and the number one low-cost carrier Megahub globally. Asia-Pacific airports dominate this category, with 16 of the top 25 located in Asia and 18 in Europe and the Middle East. Low-cost carrier penetration across the Asia-Pacific region now sits at around 60%.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n\n
\n
","rssSummary":"In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Angie Kocerka (Deputy Commissioner, Chicago Department of Aviation) to discuss which airports lead the world in connectivity and what is driving the shifts, following the live reveal of OAG's 2026 Megahubs rankings.
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","head_html":null,"post_body":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","topic_ids":[67554932020],"html_title":"Africa's aviation growth story: Connectivity, capital and capacity | Webinars | OAG","cloned_from":215730452866,"rss_summary":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
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this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","postBodyRss":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","postEmailContent":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","postFeaturedImageIfEnabled":"https://490937.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/490937/blog%20image.png","postListContent":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
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\n\nKey takeaways from the discussion:
\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","postRssSummaryFeaturedImage":"","postSummary":"
In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
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\nThe role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
\nLow-cost carriers: a missing piece: The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
\nWatch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
\n\n","rssSummary":"
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In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.

You can also listen here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, Tune In
\nOr search for OAG On Air on your preferred podcast provider! 🎧
\n\nWith the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.

You can also listen here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, Tune In
\nOr search for OAG On Air on your preferred podcast provider! 🎧
\n\nWith the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.

You can also listen here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, Tune In
\nOr search for OAG On Air on your preferred podcast provider! 🎧
\n\nWith the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.

You can also listen here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, Tune In
\nOr search for OAG On Air on your preferred podcast provider! 🎧
\n\nWith the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
With the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.

You can also listen here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, Tune In
\nOr search for OAG On Air on your preferred podcast provider! 🎧
\n\nWith the global recovery well underway it's noticeable how many destinations are adjusting their strategies and products to be more environmentally friendly and, of course, sustainable.
In this episode, John Grant talks to Brent Hill, Chief Executive Officer at Tourism Fiji, about how the destination is changing its marketing, product offering and most importantly how it's recovering from a pandemic. For any island economy, air services are essential, and Fiji is one of the few destinations to have both a long-haul local airline and a mix of inbound international services.
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
\n

On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
\n

On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
\n

On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
\n

On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
\n

On this episode of OAG On Air, Campbell Wilson - CEO at Scoot, a Singaporean low-cost airline - joins John Grant to discuss aviation's journey to recovery, his experiences and insights from a 26 year career with Singapore Airlines Group, how Scoot is responding as Asia reopens and the new opportunities that have arisen.
Fasten your seat belt, sit back and tune in!
Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
\n","has_user_changes":true,"last_edit_session_id":null,"last_edit_update_id":null,"html_title":null,"tag_ids":[15272518199,10257220318,6427971533],"topic_ids":[15272518199,10257220318,6427971533],"campaign_name":null,"campaign_utm":null,"enable_google_amp_output_override":false,"featured_image":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/Punctuality_League/2019/punctuality-league-book-transparent.png","featured_image_alt_text":"punctuality-league-book-transparent","link_rel_canonical_url":null,"meta_description":"Congratulations to the winner of the Punctuality league 2019.","post_body":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
","publish_immediately":false,"use_featured_image":true,"published_by_id":11440745,"published_at":1613482562531,"rss_body":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
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\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
","postBodyRss":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
","postEmailContent":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
","postFeaturedImageIfEnabled":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/Punctuality_League/2019/punctuality-league-book-transparent.png","postListContent":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
","postListSummaryFeaturedImage":"https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/Punctuality_League/2019/punctuality-league-book-transparent.png","postRssContent":"Another year, another look at on-time performance for the world's airlines and airports and 2019's edition makes for some very interesting analysis, especially as sitting on top of this year's league is a brand new winner in airline punctuality.
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\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
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\nDethroning 3-time winner airBaltic was no easy task, but in 2018, Copa Airlines topped the ranking as the most punctual airline in the world with OTP of 89.79%, becoming the first-ever Latin American winner of the League.
\nIn fact, it's been a brilliant year for South America as LATAM Airlines Group came first in our Mega Airlines category with on-time performance of 85.60%, climbing a remarkable seven places and knocking Japan Airlines off top-spot. The success follows in our Medium Airports category as Panama City climbs from 3rd to 1st.
\nWe also welcome five new entrants in the Small Airports category, with Minsk going on to claim first place, but it is Japan which continues its excellent standards by winning the Large Airport and Mega Airport categories with Osaka and Tokyo Haneda respectively holding onto the top spots.
\nWith so many airlines and airports anticipating this report, it's no wonder the Punctuality League is being recognised as the world's definitive measurement of on-time performance. There's plenty of hot topics and discussions set to arise from these results, so make sure you're part of the action and download your very own copy using the form at the top of this page.
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