AIRLINE FREQUENCY AND CAPACITY TREND STATISTICS
Each month OAG produces an Airline Frequency and Capacity Trend Statistics Report, flight data included is sourced via Schedules Analyzer; a cutting-edge platform for airline schedule analysis. The report contains key facts and figures including Seats by Region, Top 20 Country Pairs, Top 20 Airlines, and Top 20 Airports, plus additional information regarding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the recovery of the travel industry. The data below is for the month of November 2022.
SEATS BY REGION
- Global capacity this month is expected to be 13.0% behind November 2019, a sight reduction on last month where capacity was 12% behind 2019.
- In terms of the month on month trend, seats are expected to fall this month by 5.8% but this is in line with seasonal norms.
- Looking back to 2019 (although we do need to stop defaulting to 2019 at some point!) shows that the normal seasonal reduction then between October and November was 7.8% so by that measure, global capacity is currently holding up.
- Regions seeing capacity constrict this month are Europe, North America, and much of Africa, with the exception of Southern Africa which is coming into peak season for leisure travel.
- Similarly the Caribbean which is coming into peak season is seeing capacity grow month on month, up 14.5%.
- Capacity in South East Asia remains furthest away from recovery (by the 2019 measure), at 29% below November 2019.
- Month on month capacity is growing steadily, albeit slowly, with an increase of 1.2% this month on October.
TOP TWENTY COUNTRY PAIRS
- As we move into the IATA Winter season, there is movement in the rankings of country pairs.
- Spain-UK which has dominated in the summer season, now falls to third largest as capacity constricts in the winter.
- Mexico-USA moves up to 1st place as the largest country pair, followed by Canada-USA.
- Mexico-USA will have 3.5m seats this month, and continues to see strong growth - with 13.1% more seats this month. Puerto Rico-USA records a similar growth rate, with 13.2% more seats this month.
- The market seeing most month on month growth in November is Japan-South Korea - where capacity has almost doubled with the reopening of Japan. Capacity in this country pair is now 27.8% below November 2019.
TOP TWENTY AIRLINES
- There are only a few carriers in the Top 20 adding frequency this month.
- China Southern and Air China are seeing most growth with 21.1% and 19.9% more flights respectively, however the Chinese market remains volatile still.
- All Nippon Airways is also adding frequency, with 8.7% more flights this month, taking their year on year position to just 10.9% below November 2019.
- The US majors are trimming frequency all by a similar amount, between 3-6% whilst across the Atlantic, Ryanair and easyJet see a much larger reduction as they transition from their summer to winter schedules.
- Ryanair frequency is down 29.7% this month, with easyJet down 42%.
TOP TWENTY AIRPORTS
- Airports are recording less extreme changes in capacity this month compared to last month, with some (Tokyo Haneda, Delhi, Jakarta, Guangzhou and Mexico City) seeing little change.
- Amsterdam (undoubtedly impacted by easyJet's seasonal reductions) will see capacity fall by 16.8% whilst Paris is down by 10.4% and Frankfurt by 12.1%.
- The US airports have a slightly smaller seasonal variation, with most ranging from 5-7%, with the exception of Atlanta which is down by just 1.7% this month.
- Four of the US airports in the Top 20 are now above November 2019 levels - Denver, New York, Las Vegas and Orlando.
- Of the Top 10 largest domestic markets this month only Mexico and Spain will see capacity exceed 2019 levels.
- Mexico is 15.6% ahead of November 2019, whilst Spain is +2.7%.
- Indonesia remains furthest behind of this group, with domestic seats still 26.2% behind the pre pandemic period.
With global domestic capacity at 295 million this month, this is the highest level of domestic capacity since August 2019, and is only 1.8% short of that volume, equivalent to just 5m seats. International capacity is now the highest it has been since January 2020 but still 26.3% below August 2019.
- Globally, capacity is currently sitting 13.0% below November 2019. This is likely to remain the position for the rest of this year and potentially into the first couple of months of 2023.
- In November, domestic capacity is expected to be 6.6% behind November 2019, a drop from 3.6% last month.
- Domestic totals continue to be impacted by the ongoing volatility in the Chinese domestic market.
- International capacity this month is still improving however, with seats this month expected to be just 23.1% behind November 2019, the closest to 2019 levels since the pandemic began.
FREQUENCY & CAPACITY STATISTICS DECODED
All data is sourced from OAG Schedules and is for the current month and previous months. Change in capacity and frequency is then calculated in each category against the same month in 2019 and against the previous month. Data is unadjusted for the leap year effect. In 2021 we moved to ranking the Top 20’s (Country Pairs, Airlines and Airports) by the current month, rather than using pre-COVID rankings.
There are six categories as defined below:
- Seats by Region is seat capacity for the current month to, from and within each global sub region.
- Top 20 Country Pairs are those international country pairs with most seat capacity based on the current month.
- Top 20 Airlines are the 20 largest global airlines by flights based on the current month.
- Top 20 Airports are the 20 largest airports by capacity based on the current month.
- Domestic Markets are the 10 largest markets by seats.
- COVID19 impacts domestic and international by month.
Each category includes a comparison in each of the above categories against the previous month, to highlight where frequency and capacity may be starting to recover.
Data for October 2022 is based on the OAG Schedules data as of 10th November 2022.