Aviation Market Analysis

Blog

North American Summer 2025 Schedules: Network and Capacity Changes

Written by John Grant |18 March 2025| 0 Comments

While the clocks have already sprung forward in North America, the IATA Summer 2025 season is still a few weeks away from launching but with most airlines now settled on their summer schedules we’ve looked at how networks and capacity are changing year-on-year (YoY).

John G

First, a quick overview of key stats for Summer 2025 and the North American market:

  • Total airline capacity from North America is set at some 793 million scheduled seats for Summer 2025 representing a 2% increase YoY.
  • Canada has a 4% increase YoY as it reaches 8 million seats, while the dominant US market of 730 million has a more cautious 1.7% growth rate YoY.
  • The domestic markets account for 84% of all capacity growth, 937,000 seats (that's 1% domestic market growth YoY) . This modest growth reflects some caution in the market and the supply chain challenges that are creating enforced capacity discipline for some airlines.

Mexican Airlines Grab The Largest Share

Mexico remains the largest international market served from North America with 15.6 million scheduled seats during Summer 2025, a YoY growth of 8%.

  • Two airlines will account for 90% of the planned capacity growth and as these two airlines battle for market share this should in turn stimulate some competitive fares in the market:
    • Volaris are adding a sizeable 780,000 seats (+36% YoY)
    • VivaAerobus, another low-cost airline, are adding 300,000 seats (+33% YoY)
  • Volaris has become the largest airline operating between North America and Mexico. Including Aeromexico, the three Mexican airlines now have a 38% market share, compared to 32% a year earlier. And in the US market they have increased their capacity by over 28% as they now operate some 40% of all capacity compared to 34% in Summer 2024.

Europe Reports Strong Capacity Growth

The recent strong seasonal growth in demand and capacity to Europe looks likely to continue in Summer 2025 with strong capacity growth to Italy, Spain and France - as the current strength of the US Dollar makes those destinations good value for money.

  • All three major US airlines are planning double digit growth to Italy this year, collectively adding 260,000 seats.
  • In the Spanish market, Iberia have dropped capacity by some 35,000 as their oneWorld and joint venture partner American Airlines adds 75,000 seats to the country.
  • In the second largest international market, the United Kingdom, capacity this summer is set to be slightly lower than last year with Norse Atlantic cutting back their capacity by some 18% and American Airlines dropping some 2% of their previous year capacity. Despite both British Airways and Virgin Atlantic Airways continuing to have supply chain and MRO issues, both airlines have managed to keep similar production levels this summer reflecting the profitability of these markets to both businesses.

  • Join Our Next Live Webinar | Register for Updates
  • Takeoff Data Insights on the World's Major Airlines | View Now

US Majors Grow at The Expense of Low Cost

In an interesting development, the three major US legacy airlines have increased capacity for the forthcoming season, while a more cautious approach has been adopted by the low-cost airlines.

  • United Airlines have applied the largest percentage growth, adding 8.3 million seats (+8.3% YoY) to their domestic network and just over one million more international seats.
  • American Airlines remain the largest airline with nearly 158 million seats planned for the summer, although their year-on-year capacity growth of some 8 million is slightly behind that of both United and Delta Air Lines.
  • The Chapter 11 filing from Spirit Airlines has led to a 44% reduction in capacity, as they reorganise their network. However, the 30% reduction in capacity from Frontier may be more surprising - although perhaps equally prudent given the increasing levels of competition being faced from their Mexican rivals.
As a result of Spirit dropping some 13.6 million seats this summer compared to last year the share of low-cost airline capacity in the market has fallen by three percentage points to 28.1% (and in the US domestic market from 35% to 32%). However, this may be a short-term blip rather than the start of a longer-term change in market structure.

 

This summer should be another strong season for airlines across the North American market. However, there are perhaps more potential threats to that performance, a softening of the US dollar could certainly impact demand to Europe, wider trade related issues could also impact demand, while broader consumer demand could be subject to recessionary pressures in the US if tariffs are put into effect. All of which will keep airline management teams looking closely at forward bookings and other such indicators as the summer goes by and they begin to plan their winter operations.

GET YOUR WEEK OFF TO A FLYING START Receive a weekly digest packed full of our latest aviation insights and analysis.