For this month's aviation industry webinar, Deirdre Fulton and John Grant were joined by Brett Snyder, President of Cranky Flier, to explore Summer 2025 capacity and frequency trends in the US market. The live panel discussed:
- Capacity trends - is a domestic slowdown coming?
- Key international destinations - where is growth expected?
- Airline strategies and fleet decisions - how are they impacting growth plans?
WHAT'S THE SUMMER FORECAST FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY?
The panel began by exploring global growth trends:
- Capacity for this summer is expected to be 2.3% ahead of 2024
- For the year to date so far (January to March 2025), capacity is 2.7% ahead of the same months in 2024
- Summer capacity is expected to grow fastest in the Latin America and Asia Pacific regions, with increases of 4.6% and 4.3% respectively on Summer 2024
While discussing the data for the summer season, the panel stressed how this is a constantly evolving time for the industry, and that it's going to ultimately be tricky to predict how the market will behave over the coming months, weeks, and even days:
Despite the uncertainty, at this point in the discussion, John asked, "Brett, you're very in tune with the market. If you had to give a synopsis of what's happening in the first three months of this year and how the next three months look, what would your perspective be of the current state of the aviation industry?" (A tricky question to ask when, as Brett puts it, we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow!)
US Domestic and International Capacity
The panel then dived into the data for US domestic and international capacity:
- Some of the fastest growing cities this summer for domestic capacity are in Florida - Fort Myers, West Palm Beach, and Tampa. There is also strong capacity growth in California, San Francisco and Sacramento
- In terms of international capacity, Europe remains the most important market, with the UK the largest
- Strongest growth is coming from Italy, Ireland, Turkiye, Greece and Finland - all of which have seen double digit capacity growth this summer
Is Domestic Demand Softening?
As the panel discussed the GDP forecast, the conversation turned to factors that may impact demand in the domestic market, including political and economic factors. To what extent will the cost of living and uncertainty in the US political system impact consumer confidence?
TO WATCH THE PANEL DISCUSSION IN FULL, CLICK TO VIEW THE Webinar Here:
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