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Systems & Signals #4: Scaling Decision Velocity

Written by Filip Filipov |08 July 2025| 0 Comments

Signals & Systems is a series sharing straightforward insights on technology, leadership, and day-to-day execution, directly from the operator’s perspective. Written by OAG COO Filip Filipov, each edition decodes the signals pointing to the future of tech and the systems we're using to get there.

Filip Filipov

Welcome back. Every second Tuesday, we decode the signals and map the systems shaping tech, AI, and travel. This week, we're diving into a boardroom topic that bridges strategy to execution: decision velocity.

High-growth companies don’t die from bad bets — they die from the slow ones. This brief shows boards and operators how to compress decision-time without exploding risk.

1 | Signals: Decision Debt is Mounting

The air is thick with the cost of indecision. Big tech tells the story. Amazon’s 2023 “Day 1” memo singles out high-velocity decision-making as the #1 antidote to corporate entropy. Jeff Bezos has been warning about the creeping malaise of "Day 2" for decades, and at its core, Day 2 is about decision paralysis.

The VC view is equally stark. Marc Andreessen, ever the provocateur, warns that the worst outcome isn’t a failed bet (error of commission) but the breakthrough you never green-lit (error of omission). In a market where capital is abundant but competitive cycles are accelerating, missing the next curve is the ultimate sin. An error of commission (you invested in the idea) carries the cost of 1x - you can lose your investment only once and even when you do, at least you get the learnings. An error of omission (you didn't invest time, resource, effort) is the potential loss of 10x - you lose the opportunity to unlock growth and when the error is done, there's not a lot of hindsight post-mortems to understand the scale of the wrong decision.

Why now? AI deployment cycles have shrunk from years to quarters. Every month of executive indecision hands market share to faster rivals, turning strategic optionality into competitive liability.

Quick Stat Box:

  • Avg. time-to-pilot for GenAI inside Fortune 500: 4.5 mo
  • Avg. time-to-scale: 18 mo.
  • Top quartile — under 9 mo total.
  • If previously the gold standard for hitting $10m in ARR was years (5+), now most AI-first and native companies are doing it in 12 months.

Take-away: Strategy is a hypothesis; speed is the test.

2 | Systems: Three Lenses for Faster, Safer Calls

To truly operate at altitude, leaders need frameworks that clarify risk and enable decisive action. Here are three lenses that the best operators use to drive high-velocity, high-quality decisions:

Commission vs. Omission (per Marc Andreessen)

  • Which mistake costs more?
  • Over-allocate exploration budget; track “ideas killed vs. ideas tried.” Bias towards calculated action, not timid inaction.

One-Way vs. Two-Way Doors (per Jeff Bezos)

  • Is it reversible?
  • If it is reversible, push the decision to C- level for decision-making. If it isn't, spend a bit more time with the exec team and ideally, with board members to really consider first, second, and third order consequences of irreversible decisions.

Clear Thinking “Pause-Points” (per Shane Parrish)

  • Where will impulse bite us?
  • Require a 5-minute “cool-down” on any spend or hire $> 50k; bias speed, not haste, by consciously interrupting defaults.

My Own Playbook for Scaling Decision Velocity:

  • Classify decisions first. Before any debate begins, label decisions by their impact and reversibility. This immediately focuses the right level of organizational attention and authority.
  • Time-box every call. Default to the "70% rule": aim for 70% of the information you wish you had, set a 30-minute limit for discussion, and design for reversibility whenever possible. Perfection is the enemy of good enough, and slow enough is death.
  • Codify learnings. Post-mortem both the hits and the near-misses to slash the error-of-omission rate next cycle. This builds institutional muscle memory for effective action.

Take-away: Competitive distance in 2025–26 will correlate with how many decisions your org ships per calendar month that stick.

3 | Operator’s Radar — Further Reading

For those ready to dive deeper into building a high-velocity decision culture, some of the posts/books/writings that I have enjoyed.

4 | Coming Up

Signal Cycle: AI times Travel after the Summer Surge — fresh data on booking funnels, agentic planners, and who’s winning the top-of-intent battle.

Onwards.

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