When we book a flight or speak to friends, it may feel as if the cost of air travel is increasing year-on-year, and this is certainly the message in the media as air travel is often referenced as a major contributor to inflation. Supply in the aviation industry has certainly been constrained in recent years as supply chain shortages have impacted capacity. But is air travel really more expensive than ever?

We’ve analysed average economy class airfare data for some of the largest routes in three major regional markets – North America, Europe and Asia - to see exactly what has been happening.

The routes are very large with lots of competition, so you would expect airfares to be competitive, and that does seem to be the case. For each route we’ve taken the average price for city to city (rather than airport), so for instance rather than New York JFK and New York Newark the average fare quoted is for NYC as a whole.

North American Airfares Reduce Slightly

Across the ten largest markets in the US, six city pairs have seen fares reduce year-on-year:

• LAX-NYC (-1%)
• MIA-NYC (-1%)
• FLL-NYC (-5%)
• LAS-LAX (-7%)
• NYC-SFO (-3%)
• DFW-LAX (-6%)

All the airfares we looked at to Los Angeles reduced, with Las Vegas seeing the largest reduction of 7% followed by Dallas/Ft Worth with a 6% drop. Interestingly Las Vegas has been under pressure in recent months as visitor numbers have fallen year-on-year but average airfares from the city to all US destinations have only fallen by 1% for economy travel.

New York features in eight of the ten largest markets with fares rising on Chicago (5%) and Atlanta (6%), Orlando (2%) and Dallas (1%). On the other hand, fares from NYC to San Francisco are down by 3% and for all US domestic cities served from the New York airports, fares year-on-year are overall down by 3% to an average of US$586.

European Airfares Still Rising

For anyone who has travelled through Europe this summer it will come as no surprise that airline ticket prices have been rising: six of the ten largest routes report increases year-on-year:

• BCN-PMI (+2%)
• OSL-TRD (+4%)
• LIS-MAD (+1%
• CTA-ROM(+14%)
• DUB-LON (+24%)
• CPH-OSL (+6%)

Though in some cases, such as BCN-PMI where there are on average twenty-one flights a day, an increase of less than one dollar is not too off-putting.

The single largest increase was recorded on Dublin – London where average economy fares increased by 24% to US$58 one-way. Still cheaper than learning how to walk on water or more realistically, taking the ferry between the two islands. In contrast to the increase on the London route, average economy fares from Dublin to the whole of Europe fell by 5% to an average of US$99, while from London to Europe they increased by 2% to US$101.

Five of the top ten largest European markets tracked featured a Spanish city, with a mix of increases and a few reductions, all within 5%. Across all routes from Spain average economy fares fell by 5% year-on-year to an average of US$119, so it will be interesting to see how this changes as Ryanair has withdrawn millions of seats from the market.

Asian Airfares Falling as Capacity Recovers

Capacity across Asia (excluding China) has increased by 4% year-on-year which may be one of the major factors in eight of the ten largest city pairs seeing airfare reductions. Prices in Japan are noticeably lower, with Fukuoka – Tokyo down by 13% year-on-year and Sapporo – Tokyo 10% lower; domestic air fares through the whole of Japan are down by 7% year-on-year in a market that appears to be showing signs of softening demand.

The opening of two new airports in Mumbai and Delhi will increase the competition between these two Indian cities, especially when the two largest airlines in the market have new aircraft deliveries scheduled for the next few years. year-on-year, average economy fares have fallen by 10% across the country, which has one of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world.

This snapshot of average economy airfares across the largest markets in the world shows a mixed set of results, but eighteen of the thirty city pairs report year-on-year reductions. This may reflect additional capacity coming into the market as much as airlines stimulating demand.

As always, a snapshot is just that and there will certainly be higher airfares on sale, and occasionally perhaps even lower ones than those we’ve included. Ultimately, if an airfare feels like a bargain to you then it probably is - grab it if you can!