Central Asia may be the smallest aviation region globally, with 33.7 million scheduled seats in 2025, but it is leading the world in growth. Leveraging OAG’s unique historical airline capacity data set, with a 20-year view, we explore what’s behind this rapid expansion and how the competitive landscape is evolving.

Key Summary:

• Central Asia is the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, with capacity up nearly 500% in 20 years and a 7.7% CAGR—well above global averages.
• Kazakhstan is the dominant aviation market with over 50% of all airline capacity, followed by Uzbekistan with 25%.
• The rise of low-cost carriers have reshaped competition, pushing LCC share from 4.6% in 2015 to 21% in 2025.
• Growth is fuelled by liberalisation, infrastructure investment, rising incomes, and tourism.

Explosive Growth in Domestic and International Airline Capacity

Over the past two decades, Central Asia’s aviation market has expanded by nearly 500%.

• Domestic capacity grew from 4.9 million seats in 2005 to 32.9 million in 2025, an average annual increase of 10%.
• International capacity shows a similarly strong trajectory, rising from 6.4 million to 34.5 million seats, an 8.8% average annual growth rate.

This acceleration makes Central Asia the fastest-growing region in the world, with a 7.7% CAGR - two percentage points higher than South Asia and five points above the global average.

Kazakhstan Leads the Region

Kazakhstan is the dominant aviation market in Central Asia, accounting for over half of all airline seat capacity - although it accounts for just 25% of the region’s population (according to the latest UN population data).  Uzbekistan is the region’s second-largest aviation market with 25% of total capacity. It is also the most populous country in Central Asia, with 37.1 million residents - accounting for 44% of the region’s population. The region’s population is not only growing rapidly but it is also relatively young, with an average age of 26.6 years - meaning demand for air travel is likely to continue to be strong as the region’s economy continues to develop. 

Low-Cost and Foreign Carriers Are Reshaping the Market

Liberalisation across Central Asian countries has opened the door for both low-cost carriers (LCCs) and foreign airlines, dramatically changing market dynamics.  Growth has also been influenced by Russian outbound travellers routing through Central Asia to reach other markets, a consequence of airspace closures imposed in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, with direct air access to Europe remaining closed to Russian carriers. 

Today, 125 airlines operate in the region, though 71% of all capacity is still provided by carriers domiciled in Central Asia. 

LCC capacity has surged:

• In 2015, Central Asia had the lowest LCC penetration rate globally, at just 4.6%.  In 2025, this reached 21% and this is likely to continue to grow. 
• This shift has broadened access to air travel and made it more affordable for growing middle-class populations.
• Comparison with other regions highlights the potential for LCCs in Central Asia.

• FlyArystan, Kazakhstan’s LCC, has rapidly become the region’s largest airline, operating 10 million seats and commanding 15% of the Central Asian market.
• Meanwhile, sister carrier Air Astana now holds 14% of the market.
• Other major players include Kazakhstan’s SCAT Airlines, Uzbekistan Airways, and foreign competitors such as Ural Airlines, Turkish Airlines, and Aeroflot.

Different Countries, Different Network Strategies

Domestic aviation dominates in some markets: 71% of Kazakhstan’s capacity and 66% of Turkmenistan’s is domestic, reflecting geography and state priorities.

In contrast, East and Central Europe is the most important international region for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Despite shared borders, only 4% of Central Asia’s seat capacity is intra-regional, highlighting underdeveloped cross-Central-Asian connectivity.

Top Country Pairs Reveal Diverging Network Focus

Russia remains the most significant market for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Capacity between these pairs is driven by:

• labour migration flows,
• expanded aviation freedoms,
• and Russian carriers forced to reorient toward eastern markets.

Kazakhstan, however, has taken a distinctly more strategic path - proactively diversifying away from Russia, increasing capacity to Turkey, the UAE, and wider Asia. With more competition from non-Russian international airlines, many routes that once transited Russia are rerouting through hubs such as Istanbul, Dubai or Abu Dhabi.

The 376% increase in air capacity between Uzbekistan and the UAE since 2019, driven by a new bilateral agreement and rapidly rising travel demand, indicates that Uzbekistan may also be adopting a broader geographic focus in its aviation strategy.

What is Driving Central Asia’s Aviation Boom?

 Several factors are converging to create ideal conditions for growth:

• Liberalised aviation markets replacing state-controlled national airlines and providing greater competition
• Expansion of low-cost carriers, unlocking previously untapped demand
• Modernisation of airport infrastructure across key cities
• Economic development and tourism growth, increasing mobility and international flows

With large populations, rising incomes, and underserved air networks, Central Asia holds substantial latent demand, making it one of the most promising aviation markets in the world.

All data in this article was sourced from OAG Schedules Analyser.