For this month's aviation industry webinar, Deirdre Fulton and John Grant were joined by Andrew Ward (Director, Transport & Logistics, Middle East) to discuss the influential rise of superconnectors in the Gulf region and Türkiye and their impact on worldwide connectivity.
The panel discussed:
- The extent to which infrastructure enables growth
- How national airline development has transformed Europe-Asia connectivity
- What rising competitors (like Riyadh) could mean for the future
A look at growth trends
First, the panel began by taking a look at global growth trends:
- Global capacity growth is slowing, down to 2.9% for the year to date, from 3.1% during the summer.
- Domestic capacity growth for the year to date (January-September) remains strong in Latin America and the Middle East, but has slowed in Asia Pacific, North America, and is declining in Europe.
- International capacity growth remains strong in all regions with the exception of North America. Strongest international growth is taking place in the Asia Pacific region, although the region still remains behind 2019.
exploring the Superconnectors
Next, the panel moved on to discuss the topic of this month's webinar, superconnectors:
- Europe’s biggest international hubs are experiencing slower capacity growth (LHR year-on-year capacity growth is just 0.9%, FRA 1.4%, and CDG 3.3%).
- Other international hubs are growing faster – notably IST, which is up 5.5%, and HKG +13%, driven by ongoing post-COVID-19 recovery and new runway capacity.
- The Middle East and Türkiye have spent the last decade developing multi-runway, mega-terminal designs to handle 70M–100M+ passengers annually, allowing hubs in these areas to capture connecting flows.
- Dubai is the largest of the group, with capacity reaching 124m in 2025, up from 104m a decade ago. However, it is the slowest growing, with a CAGR of 1.8%.
- The fastest growing is Riyadh, averaging 6.1% capacity growth each year for the last decade.
So, how do the superconnectors compare?
How has connectivity evolved?
Next, the panel explored the data to examine how connectivity has evolved for major hubs:
- Doha's share of connecting passengers has grown from 66% in 2015 to 74% in 2025. Istanbul is a close second, increasing from 53% in 2015 to 59% in 2025.
- Connecting traffic as an overall share of passengers has fallen at Dubai from 50% in 2015 to 47% now. This means that more than half of Dubai’s passengers start or end their journey in Dubai. Abu Dhabi (Zayed International) has also seen the volume of connecting passengers fall from 67% to 51%.
- The level of connecting passengers at Riyadh has not changed significantly in the last decade, but is likely to increase as Riyadh Air offers greater connectivity.
What does the future hold?
- Looking ahead to 2050, airports across the region are set to expand their runway and terminal infrastructure to accommodate an estimated 844 million passengers - more than twice today’s volumes.
- While this seems a substantial increase, regional growth is projected to exceed 5% annually for the remainder of the decade, easing to around 4% thereafter. Therefore, achieving these passenger volumes by 2050 is well within reach.
The big question is, will passenger shares across these global hubs remain the same, or are there big changes to come?
Watch the full webinar
For more indepth insights and analysis, watch the full panel discussion below: