For this month's aviation industry webinar, Deirdre Fulton and John Grant were joined by Sanja Ples (CEO, ch-aviation) and Jon Howey (Deputy COO & Head of Aviation Risk, CALC) to discuss the year in aviation and explore the trends that may shape the industry in 2026.
The panel discussed:
- Global airline capacity trends and where growth is taking place right now
- New developments to come in 2026 in the airline community
- The airlines to watch in the year ahead
A look at growth trends
First, the panel began by taking a look at global growth trends:
- Capacity growth for the year to date remains steady at 3.1% ahead of last year.
- Q1 2026 is currently 3.6% ahead of Q1 2025.
Which aviation markets led growth in 2025?
- Central Asia and North Africa led growth in 2025, with some markets still to shake off the impact from the pandemic:
Growth appears steady across most markets this winter
- Domestic aviation markets in Asia, Latin America and Australia are seeing strongest growth of almost 4% compared to last winter.
- The Middle East is also strong, but impacted by missing data in Iran - if we strip out this effect, domestic growth is almost 10% ahead.
- International growth is strongest in the Middle East, Africa, and Southwest Pacific.
Some turbulence emerging in North-East Asia
- On 14 November, China issued a travel advisory, urging its citizens not to travel to Japan following a diplomatic dispute between the two countries. This was followed by a further warning to Chinese citizens from the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo, raising security concerns about travel in Japan.
- Capacity between the two countries has seen a significant fall in the last four weeks for the rest of the winter season (December –the end of March), with seats down by 18% compared to the position before the announcements. Before this, 82% of capacity was operated by Chinese carriers, and they have reduced capacity by 19% for the rest of the season. This may reduce further in the coming weeks.
What does the Low-cost Carrier (LCC) landscape look like in Europe?
- In 5 of the Top 10 LCC markets in Europe, Ryanair has the largest share.
- This is highest in Italy, where they operate 57% of capacity.
- Only Norway has a more dominant carrier, Norwegian, who operate 85% of capacity.
- In Poland, Ryanair also operate over 50% of capacity.
WHAT DOES THE LCC LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN the US?
- Meanwhile, in the US, LCC access to major hubs remains limited. The panel explores the data and discusses the reasons why the US's biggest airports are still difficult markets for LCCs to operate in:
Watch the full webinar:
There's so much more to discover in the full panel discussion - for more insights, watch below: