Global sporting events rarely result in an immediate increase in demand during the event itself. In many cases, air travel actually softens as local residents stay at home and higher accommodation costs deter some visitors.

Paris 2024 Olympic Games was a recent example: Air France reported a loss of some US$193 million after initially adding capacity and then dropping it because of the lower-than-expected demand.

So, what can we expect when the FIFA World Cup kicks off in June and July, with 63 matches spread across North America? 

Peak Season Meets a Mega Event

The traditional peak period for travel to North America has always been June and July, as a combination of June school holidays in North America slip into the European school holiday periods of July.

Average load factors in these two months are regularly more than 90% and average airfares are at their highest as airlines maximise revenues with only modest increases in capacity. 

The chart below highlights how scheduled airline capacity to the three host country markets is broadly unchanged year-on-year. Canada is the only market showing a notable growth of 4% in capacity, which allows the country to move slightly ahead of Mexico. The United States is the largest market - around ten times larger than the other two host countries, yet capacity is only up by 0.6% in the peak months.

With limited additional capacity being offered in the market, airlines will be seeking to maximise their revenues during the World Cup. For fans, however, the focus will be on finding the cheapest ways to get from fixture to fixture while saving enough for a burger. 

Lessons from Qatar

During the last World Cup in Doha, a shuttle service from Dubai resulted in many fans making multiple day trips to watch matches, with ease of entry between the two GCC countries facilitating the shuttle fans’ plans. That model is unlikely to translate easily to the United States, where visa requirements make multiple entries more complex.

However, the 11 cities (12 stadiums) selected to host matches in the US are all well served by airports, and in some cases multiple airports with high frequency services. But while there appears to be plenty of flight choice, our analysis of average airfares suggests that many football fans will be looking for cheaper options for travel.

Cheaper Transatlantic Airfares 

For fans travelling from Europe there is good news! Scheduled airline capacity from Europe to the US in June and July will be 4% higher than last year, suggesting a few thousand more seats will be available. And the good news gets even better as a softness in current demand has resulted in lower average economy airfares to eight of the host cities (compared to the same time last year). 

Kansas City stands out with airfares down by 16% year-on-year, the first match there takes place on 16 June between Argentina – Algeria. Boston is the main exception, with average economy airfares nearly 9% higher than last year, with the big attraction being a Norway – France fixture on the 26 June. 

It would seem, at least from an airfare perspective reaching the United States could be slightly cheaper than would have been expected this time last year, but what about travel within the United  States?

Domestic US Travel is Increasingly Expensive

In a classic “game of two halves” plot, once landed it’s a completely different game. Domestic airfares between host cities are currently higher than last year. 

The table below shows the current average lowest economy airfare from each US host city to the other ten host cities; so, from Dallas to Miami, Philadelphia, Houston etc and in all cases the current airfare levels are significantly above those last year. 

Dallas/Ft Worth, Miami and Philadelphia are all showing increases of more than 50%; hardly friendly fares for visitors. There will of course be movements in airfares between now and June, and while these are current selling airfares it does not necessarily mean that football fans are booking their flights. Indeed, for the brave fan, based on the experiences of Air France and the 2024 Olympics waiting until closer to the day may lead to a bargain; but it’s a big call if you have a match ticket but no flights booked.

There is no doubt that global mega events create surge pricing and crazy prices, from concerts to sporting events cities around the world have historically seen hotel prices increase and the World Cup 2026 is no exception; especially for those rarely attending countries such as Scotland, Curacao and Jordan. Ultimately there will always be someone willing to pay the price for that “once in a lifetime” opportunity and certainly FIFA and the airlines will make the most of that desire in June and July. But some people will find bargains, could one of those be you?