.jpg)
.png)
One of many interesting network developments we’ve followed in recent years has been the launch of new services enabled by the latest generations of long-haul aircraft.
In Summer 2024, 263 long-haul routes (more than 5,000 nautical miles) operated from airports in the Americas; by Summer 2026, there will be an additional 16 of them as the slow and steady growth pattern continues post-pandemic. But as is often the case, these numbers alone don’t tell the full story. Intriguingly, in Summer 2019, there were 293 of these routes in operation, 14 more than in Summer 2026.
US Legacy Airlines Dominate Ultra Long-Haul
Over 80% of regional ultra-long-haul routes originate from North America, which is no surprise given the size of the market, with its three major legacy carriers having the strength, fleet size, and multiple hub airport structure necessary to support those airport pairs. However, the fact that there has been little change in the total number of ultra-long-haul routes perhaps highlights how difficult operating such markets are, from both a commercial and operational perspective.
In the North American market, United Airlines is the largest ultra-long-haul operator. In Summer 2026, they will operate nearly 6,700 long-haul services (more than 5,000 nautical miles), with the launch of a Newark to Incheon service and services returning between Tel Aviv and San Francisco. San Francisco International Airport is the largest long-haul base for United, with nine destinations operated daily and four benefiting from twice-daily flights.
Perhaps surprisingly, Cathay Pacific has the second largest ultra-long-haul network from North America with nine markets served including three times daily services to Hong Kong from both New York JFK and Los Angeles, and the addition of a new Seattle service building even more connectivity for the Hong Kong airline.
Both United and Cathay Pacific are established long-haul carriers in the North American market, but the fastest-growing carrier in recent years has been Qatar Airways. The Middle Eastern airline has increased schedules by 42% since Summer 2019, adding over 1,000 flights and serving 13 destinations. Their One World alliance partner hubs at New York JFK and Dallas/Ft Worth are both served at least twice daily.
Which Latin American Airline Excels in Long-Haul Travel?
Across South America, LATAM are the dominant ultra-long-haul carrier with a significant expansion in services scheduled for this summer. Both their Santiago and São Paulo hubs will get new services:
- Santiago - Sydney will operate daily
- Santiago - Melbourne will build to five flights a week
- European expansion from São Paulo will see both Brussels and Amsterdam being added to their network.
Iberia remains the second largest operator of sectors over 5,000 nautical miles to South America, but the two fastest-growing airlines are Turkish Airlines and Aeromexico.
Turkish Airlines’ global aspirations are well documented - both Cancun and Panama were added to their network in 2019 and have now developed into daily services. This summer, the airline is adding Havana to its network with a three-times weekly operation. For Aeromexico, Barcelona returns to the network with a six-weekly service while Monterrey – Tokyo Narita remains one of the more obscure routes as the airline transits through the airport from a Mexico City origin.
Opening new ultra-long-haul routes is a challenge for any airline. Connectivity to a major global hub at one end of the service is essential and in many cases such services require a minimum of three aircraft allocated for a daily service. Ideally there would also be an above average proportion of premium traffic that could be attracted to a new non-stop service, and a modest cargo contribution would be welcome.
Our analysis shows that there are large volumes to Bangkok from both New York and Los Angeles, and Cancun appears regularly as an unserved long-haul destination from South America, but both destinations are essentially lower yielding leisure destinations that don’t match the criteria outlined above.
All of which draws us to the conclusion that growth in the ultra-low-cost market from the Americas is likely to be very limited in the next few years, aside from flagship projects such as Qantas’s Sydney – New York JFK service. Instead, as we have been seeing in recent years, we can expect airlines to increase daily frequencies on some already very dense routes to perhaps a maximum of three or four services a day. This in itself is a remarkable testament to the potential of global connectivity in the region.
