Global aviation market briefing

Global capacity has increased by 8.3m seats compared with October 2025, a rise of 1.6%. North East Asia recorded the largest increase by volume, up 2.8m seats, followed by North America, which added 2.5m seats. Central/Western Africa posted the strongest growth rate, with capacity up 18.4% year on year, followed by Central Asia and North Africa where capacity rose by 11.6% and 11.4% respectively. The Middle East remains below last year, down 1.9m seats, or 7.8%, amid continuing instability in the region. Four other regions are also below last year: the Caribbean (-56,000 seats), Central America (-135,000 seats), Southwest Pacific (-175,000 seats) and South Asia (-300,000 seats).

Global capacity is up 1.6% in October 2026, with growth led by North East Asia (+2.8m seats) and North America (+2.5m seats). Five regions are contracting year on year: the Middle East (−7.8%), the Caribbean (−1.6%), Southwest Pacific (−1.4%), South Asia (−1.2%) and Central America (−1.2%). The fastest-growing region by rate is Central/Western Africa, up 18.4% to 3.5 million seats, followed by Central Asia (+11.6%) and North Africa (+11.4%).

Alaska Airlines continues to record strong frequency growth this year, with flights up 23.5% year on year following the recent integration of Hawaiian Airlines. All the other North American carriers in the Top 20 are also up, ranging from 1.3% growth at Delta Air Lines to 7.5% at JetBlue Airways. In Europe, only Ryanair and easyJet are growing, up 1.0% and 0.2% respectively. The remaining three European airlines in the Top 20 are down this month: British Airways (-2.7%), Turkish Airlines (-3.5%) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (-11.6%). In Asia, the top-performing airline is China Eastern, up 6.6%, while Japan's All Nippon Airways shows the weakest performance, with frequencies down 6.3% compared with October 2025.

Emirates and Qatar Airways continue to record significant declines in international ASKs amid the situation in the Middle East, down 5.0% and 3.1% year on year respectively. Emirates remains the largest carrier by international ASKs, at 31.1 billion - 7.3 billion ahead of second-placed Ryanair. Apart from Emirates and Qatar Airways, the only other carrier down this month in terms of international ASKs is United Airlines (-0.1%). The Chinese carrier Air China is showing the fastest growth rates within the Top 20, up 13.5%, followed by Etihad Airways at 11.6% and LATAM Airlines Group at 11.3%.

Spain - United Kingdom remains the largest international country pair this month, with 5.7m seats, which is 354,000 more seats than last year and equivalent to growth of 6.6%. Continuing a trend seen in recent months, the two fastest-growing markets involve the Republic of Korea: China – Republic of Korea is up 27.0%, while Japan - Republic of Korea is up 20.3%. The market with the sharpest rate of decline this month is Russian Federation - Türkiye, down 8.4%, or 146,000 fewer seats than in October 2025.

Canada is the fastest-growing domestic market in the Top 10 this month, up 6.4% year on year, followed by Indonesia at 5.1%. Australia recorded the largest decline, down 3.7% compared with October 2025. Two other domestic markets are down compared to last year, India (-2.3%) and Mexico (-3.3%).