For many airlines, cost control is crucial. When an external supplier or agency imposes a price increase, the airline, and ultimately the passenger, suffers as those charges are passed on through higher ticket prices. Unfortunately for most airlines it’s a “grin and bear it” moment with their operations based on a single home market. But not for Ryanair, who’ve cut winter capacity to France.

KEY POINTS:

• Ryanair is cutting 11% of its French winter capacity due to higher aviation taxes and ATC disruptions.
• Despite cuts in France, the airline is adding 31,000 more flights and six million extra seats overall versus last winter.
• Italy and Ireland see the biggest capacity gains, with major boosts also for airports: Brussels Charleroi, London Stansted, Alicante, Krakow, and Malta.
• Four French airports - Strasbourg, Bergerac, Paris Vatry, and Brive - are essentially being dropped entirely.
• Ryanair’s network flexibility lets it move aircraft easily, giving it strong leverage with airports.

The most recent increase in aviation taxes, combined with the loss of around 7.3 million passengers from French ATC disruption, has prompted the airline to cut 11% of its historic winter capacity to France. And yet, in total, the airline will operate some 31,000 more flights capacity and six million more seats than in the winter 2024/25 season. So how has that all happened?

Massive Network Flexibility

With 93 bases across Europe, Ryanair can easily move one or two aircraft from base to base over the winter season if the price is right at the receiving base! While some other carriers can match this network flexibility, Ryanair are the masters in such movement and it certainly provides them with a strong negotiating point in their dealings with airports and stakeholders. And, as always, where there are losers there are winners, so let’s look at who they are…

Country-Level Winners

At country level there is only one country – among Ryanair’s markets - that sees a year-on-year decline, and that’s France.  Every other major market is benefitting from the redistribution of capacity,  with average capacity growth of over 8% as new aircraft join the airline’s fleet:

• Italy is the clear winner with an additional 1.5 million seats and 10% growth as Ryanair cements its dominance in both the domestic and intra-European market.
• Ireland, with 15% growth, is clearly now back in favour with Ryanair. With nearly 600,000 additional seats at Dublin alone, the airline seems to have found a way around some of the local capacity restrictions.
• Spain and the UK are below the average amongst the airline’s top markets, consistent growth in already very mature markets reflects the confidence of the airline in its business model.

Airport-Level Winners

Not surprisingly the major airport winners in the Ryanair winter stakes are in those major country markets. Brussels Charleroi, London Stansted, Alicante, Krakow and Malta all gain over 200,000 additional seats for the 20 week season - so travellers can expect some aggressive pricing to and from those destinations I suspect.

France’s Capacity Loss  

Applying an even-handed approach to their dissatisfaction, Ryanair have dropped capacity at every French airport they operate with four airports essentially being wiped off their network map: Strasbourg, Bergerac, Paris-Vatry and Brive. While others, such as Béziers, have lost over half of their capacity season on season.

Ryanair are the only scheduled airline operating at Béziers and the loss of over 100 flights in the winter season will be an issue, although on the bright side of life the airline has conveniently not scheduled any services for Friday, Saturday or Sunday allowing for long-weekends for all the airport staff! You would suspect that the towns chamber of commerce will be wondering what to do now those services have been lost.

The biggest losses in capacity are at two of the largest Ryanair bases:

• Paris Beauvais down 76,000 seats (-6.5%)
• Marseille down 58,000 (-7.4%)

While Marseille has multiple airlines operating, Paris Beauvais will feel the impact as Ryanair is their largest customer and ten times the size of their next operator.

The imposition of additional taxes may play well in some quarters of French politics and the various sustainability groups, but since Ryanair has one of the most efficient fleets in Europe it will be interesting to see if the lost revenue from non-collection of any taxes and the damage to the local economies is greater than the incremental revenue the authorities were hoping to see.

Few Airports “Beat” Ryanair

It has been said many times before and is worth saying again, few airlines beat Ryanair at their own game and the latest attempts of the French once again repeat the lessons that other authorities and airports have experienced. As the largest airline in Europe with multiple bases and the ability to flex their market power when necessary, Ryanair really are a capacity tap, it can be turned on and off at a moment’s notice and never misread a threat from Europe’s largest low-cost carrier.