John Grant brings together schedule data, pricing insights, and operational experience to connect the dots between today’s trends and the year(s) ahead. Here he shares his perspective on how current trends may play out over the coming year and beyond.
Low-Cost Carriers Continue to Drive Airline Growth
Through to the end of this decade, expect most growth globally to be generated from the low-cost airline sector. Major low-cost operators are due to receive their latest aircraft orders and will expand their networks further. And for many of those airlines we should expect to see an ever-greater focus on ancillary product revenues and maybe even some premium products coming to the market.
Smart Airlines Will Gain an Advantage with AI
Expect lots of stories around AI and its increasing use in the industry with many of the developments in operational areas. Every slight efficiency gained by using AI should result in a cost benefit to the airlines and improved margins for those clever airlines that test thoroughly and adopt early.
Record Revenues For Many Airlines?
Based on current demand and capacity trends, 2026 looks set to be a good year with the potential for record levels of profitability for most airline CEOs with the potential for record levels of profitability. Even some of the less efficient national airlines could break even. Demand continues to be strong Ddespite concerns around economic growth and consumer confidence d, emand continues to be strong, and a weakening of the US Dollar would be a positive for many airlines.
Expect More Longer Narrow-Bodied Flights
In 2025, there were some 44,400 narrow-bodied flights - an increase of over 18% compared to 2024 - that lasted in excess of more than seven hours and thirty minutes, an increase of over 18% on the 2024 number. We expect that to comfortably break the 50,000 mark in 2026 with many transatlantic services added.
Airlines Will Adapt to Geo-Political Events – at a Cost
Sadly, the reach of geo-politics will never be far away and is always outside the control of the airlines that are inevitably impacted. Airlines and their management teams are very skilled at flipping capacity when necessary, but it always takes a lot of effort and cost.
Sustainability Will Improve, But Targets Remain Hard to Reach
Progress will be made on many sustainability fronts from Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through to airport facilities and operational vehicles, but meeting the industry’s targets remains almost impossible given where we are today.
European Strikes in the Summer
And finally, don’t be surprised if there is a French or German Air Traffic Control strike for a few days at some point in the summer!
And of course, this all comes with the understanding that in aviation, as in life, we should expect the unexpected! Sign up for aviation news and analysis from OAG below to stay on top of new developments.
