For this month's aviation industry webinar, Deirdre Fulton and John Grant were joined by Courtney Miller (Founder and Managing Director, Visual Approach Analytics) and Gary Bowerman (Asia Travel Markets & Consumer Trends Analyst) to give a mid-year aviation recap and discuss predictions for the industry for the second half of 2025.
The live panel discussed global growth trends and also took a deep dive into some of the world's biggest markets:
- In Asia, is Japan reaching peak volumes? Why has Thailand’s capacity dropped dramatically this year? Is Vietnam’s aviation market a rising star?
- In the US, one of the world’s biggest domestic markets, is more consolidation imminent? And is international travel demand finally softening?
A look at growth trends
First, the panel began by taking a look at global growth trends:
- Capacity for this summer is expected to be 3.1% ahead of 2024, a little slower than we expected last month. For the year to date so far (January-July 2025), capacity is 3.1% ahead of the same months in 2024.
- If growth had continued at the underlying rate from 2019 to 2025, capacity would now be at 625m seats in July 2025, rather than 557m.
- The equivalent ‘lost’ daily flights in the month of July are almost 19,000.
Part one: asia
Next, the panel began their in-depth analysis with a focus on Asia’s aviation market:
- Several of Southeast Asia’s major markets are showing notable capacity gains: Vietnam is up by 16%, Malaysia by 10%, and Cambodia by an impressive 22%.
- However, this increase in capacity is not reflected in the latest H1 2025 arrivals data, which indicates that most markets have experienced a decline in visitor arrivals—Vietnam being the key exception.
In this clip, Gary gave his insights into these capacity trends we've seen developing:
vietnam growth takes off
Growth in Vietnam has been on a steady upward trajectory since around 2011, with significant international growth taking place between 2010 and 2019. In the 15 years from 2010-2025, growth has averaged 9%, despite the impact of the pandemic. Is this Vietnam’s moment?
Part two: usa
In the second half of the webinar, the panel discussed the US - is the domestic market softening?
- Domestic capacity in the US is pretty flat – although not contracting – this summer, with capacity growth of just 0.8%, compared to an increase of 2.3% in international capacity.
- Looking at the Top 10 carriers (domestic and international capacity) shows mixed performance: United leads with a 6.3% year-on-year increase, Delta has grown by 2.9%, and American by a steadier 1.2%.
- In contrast, most low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers are seeing limited growth, with the notable exception of Allegiant, which is up 13.6%.
Courtney gave his insights into the trends we're seeing: