The air travel data is plotted by week from the beginning of 2019 to w/c 27th November 2023.
The data is shown weekly, for the last 4 years, with 2019 as a baseline for global capacity. Each week this chart will be updated with the latest capacity for the current week, and for filed scheduled capacity for the 11 weeks ahead, showing the overall 3 months forward-looking position.
- Global capacity returns to the trend of previous weeks, back up to 103.1 million which is 3.1% behind the same week in 2019.
- The full year 2023 position remains steady at 5.5bn seats, which will be 3.6% behind 2019, and 17.3% higher than 2022.
These charts show the different patterns in recovery for the domestic and international markets. The data provided includes the number of scheduled airline seats for domestic and international flights by week for the last 4 years, again with 2019 as the baseline for capacity. As with the global chart above, each week this chart will be updated with the latest capacity position for the current week, and for future filed scheduled capacity for the 11 weeks ahead.
- Domestic airline capacity is holding steady this week, up slightly by 163,000 seats to 63.9m which is just a 0.3% variance on last week.
- Against the same week in 2019, domestic capacity is now 1.8% behind.
- Domestic capacity for the full year is still expected to reach 3.4bn, which will be 0.7% ahead of 2019.
- International capacity this week has increased by 254,000 seats to 39.1m which represents an increase of 0.6% on last week.
- International capacity remains in line with the trend of recent weeks against 2019, down by 5.2%.
- Full year international capacity is still expected to be 2.1bn, which will be 9.8% behind 2019.
The chart below provides a weekly overview by region of capacity by domestic, international and total seats for the current week compared to the same week in 2019, and to the previous week.
- The biggest change this week in domestic capacity in volume terms is in South East Asia where carriers have added 55,009 seats this week. Domestic capacity in the region is now 20% behind the same week in 2019.
- Domestic seats are also increasing in North East Asia this week by 46,000 seats, albeit a very small increase in percentage terms of just 0.2% on last week. Domestic capacity in North East Asia is now 4.8% ahead of 2019.
- International capacity continues to increase steadily this week in South East Asia and North East Asia, taking the position on 2019 to 20.8% and 26% below respectively. North America has also seen an increase in international capacity this week as travel resumes after the Thanksgiving holiday.
We’re often asked why we look at airlines’ capacity data rather than passenger numbers. The answer is that using actual passenger numbers would restrict us to analyzing past data, while airlines’ capacity data allows us to look ahead into the next few months, at least. If airlines have capacity in the schedule, they are selling seats and though the two sets of data are not the same, trends tend to run parallel.
27 November 2023Aviation Market Analysis
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