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How and when will aviation recover from Covid-19?

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Global scheduled seat Capacity year-over-year

Each month, we’ll show the % change in capacity for the latest full month (i.e. December 2021), compared to the previous month (November 2021) and also the % change to the same months in the last two years so in this case, December 2019 and December 2020. We also show the projected capacity going forward (2022 schedule) and update that weekly.    

We also provide the % change in capacity for the current week i.e. week beginning 3rd January 2022, compared to the previous week (week beginning 27 December 2021) and also the % change to the equivalent week in the last two years, so the week beginning 6 January 2020 and 4 January 2021.

These datasets will allow us to continue to monitor recovery against pre-pandemic capacity, during the pandemic and latest trends.

4-Jan-22-Global-Seat-Capacity
Global scheduled capacity expected for January 2022 stands at 366.5 million seats. While airlines continue to adjust schedules so that capacity is reduced week by week, the degree of change is now relatively small with only 0.4% of seats coming out of the January schedule this week.
Looking ahead, the current schedule for February 2022 has capacity at 351.7 million seats – somewhat lower than January but actually an increase in seats per day given that February only has 28 days. Capacity looks set to rise substantially in March with seats in the schedule not at 406.2 million for the month of March.

capacity variance by current month and week

4-Jan-22-Global-Scheduled-Seats-percentage-Change
In the first full week of 2022 global scheduled capacity stands at 84.0 million seats. This is 10% up on the position eight weeks earlier, in mid-November, and 0.4% up on last week. Capacity remains 22% down on where it was for the same week in 2019.
Of the large travel markets shown here, only Mexico starts 2022 with capacity above where it was at the start of 2020 with seats 5.4% above the week of 6th January 2020.
Spain and USA are within 10% of where they were 2 years ago, while India and Brazil are inching closer to reaching 90% of the capacity operated in the first week of January 2020.
Airline capacity from Singapore remains well below where it used to be and continues to be one of the most badly affected markets. Capacity is 72% below where it was 2 years ago.
China, which has seen capacity rise and fall in response to covid-19 outbreaks, is currently operating at 15% below where it was 2 years ago.
The USA is by far the largest scheduled aviation market with almost 19 million seats this week, while China is the second largest with 14.2 million.

Weekly Global Scheduled Seats Change Year-over-Year

4-Jan-22-Global-Weekly-Capacity-text (2)
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Updates and Insights

04 January 2022 Blog

2021 Global Airline Capacity Finished at 5.7 Billion, 35% Down on Pre-COVID Levels

The devil really is in the data this week, or to be more precise it is behind the data, but let’s start by looking at how 2021 finished. Global ...

17 December 2021 Webinar

Aviation Turbulence : reviewing 2021 and looking ahead to 2022

Reviewing 2021 and taking stock for 2022 and beyond Becca Rowland, Partner, Midas Aviation, John Grant, Chief Analyst, are joined by our guest ...

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