OAG's latest analysis of the top US domestic and international routes in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 shows fare declines on the majority of markets year-on-year, with notable variation driven by capacity changes and carrier competition.
Key findings:
- In Q1 fares had declined year-on-year on 13 of the top 20 US domestic and international routes.
- The largest domestic fare change was on Atlanta (ATL) - Fort Lauderdale (FLL), down 42% year-on-year.
- Internationally, the largest fare change was on LaGuardia (LGA) - Toronto Pearson (YYZ), where fares declined by 45%.
OAG's Q1 2026 analysis of the top US domestic and international routes points to a divergence in fare trends. On many leisure-oriented routes, increased ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) capacity has contributed to year-on-year fare reductions, often on routes where Southwest has reduced its presence. In international markets, modest capacity reductions on core transatlantic routes have supported fare stability or slight increases, reflecting steadier demand from business travellers.
US domestic travel airfare changes
- ATL-FLL outbound fares fell 42% year-on-year. While Southwest pulled out of this market, Frontier more than doubled capacity and JetBlue added new capacity, too.
- MCO-ORD capacity increased 29% while fares declined 15%, with five carriers now operating. This combination may be difficult to sustain at current load factors.
- HNL-OGG saw fares rise 4–5% year-on-year, supported by a stable two-carrier market, illustrating how competitive dynamics can offset capacity reductions. Southwest reduced seats by 28% on this route, and overall capacity declined 12& year-on-year.
Across the top domestic routes, prices have decreased where capacity was added, broadly speaking. On JFK-LAX, Frontier's entry alongside a 26% capacity increase from American Airlines contributed to outbound fares declining from $245 to $199. However, on LAS-LAX, capacity fell 11% while fares also declined, suggesting some softening in underlying leisure demand rather than a supply-side effect alone.
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US international airfare changes
The JFK-LHR corridor - the largest US international route by seat capacity - saw volumes fall by around 100,000 seats year-on-year. Outbound economy fares rose 6% to $557 and inbound 7% to $662, consistent with the modest capacity reduction. Paris CDG-JFK shows a similar pattern, with outbound fares up 7% as the number of operating carriers reduced from five to four.
London–Miami is a notable exception among transatlantic routes. Despite no change in carrier count, outbound fares declined 20% year-on-year.
On the Buenos Aires–Miami route, LATAM's entry as a third carrier contributed to a 40% capacity increase, with outbound fares moving from $1,242 to $873 over the same period.
There's more to discover. View data and analysis of air fares for the top 10 domestic and international US airline routes →
