Q1 2026

Airfares on the top US route pairs

Check-in with the latest US airfare analysis for Q1 2026.

US airfares key findings

  • Airfares have decreased year-on-year on 13 of the top 20 US routes, with differences largely driven by changes in capacity and airline competition.
  • The largest domestic fare change was on Atlanta (ATL) - Fort Lauderdale (FLL), down 42%.
  • Internationally, the largest fare change was on LaGuardia (LGA) - Toronto Pearson (YYZ), where fares declined by 45%.
OAG | Top 10 US Routes & Fares — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
⚠ Fare Compression

ULCC expansion — Frontier, JetBlue, Spirit reshuffling — has driven sharp fare compression on Florida and transcontinental routes. ATL-FLL fell ~42% and LAS-LAX fell ~20% outbound year-on-year.

⚡ Capacity Concentration Risk

Southwest's retreat from multiple Florida routes is reshaping competitive dynamics. Carriers absorbing those seats are pricing aggressively, raising questions about sustainable unit economics on routes like MCO-ORD (+29% capacity, −15% fares).

✓ Hawaii Stability

HNL-OGG stands apart: a duopoly market (Hawaiian + Southwest) is delivering modest fare growth of 4–5% despite capacity reduction. Demonstrates how market structure influences pricing power even when volume contracts.

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Top 10 US Domestic Routes
Ranked by Q1 2026 total seat capacity · one-way economy fares (USD, avg. weighted by capacity)
Route Seat Capacity Carriers Outbound Fare (USD) Inbound Fare (USD)
#⇅ Code⇅ Route Name⇅ 2026 Seats⇅ 2025 Seats⇅ Chg %⇅ 2026⇅ 2025⇅ OB 2026⇅ OB 2025⇅ OB Chg⇅ IB 2026⇅ IB 2025⇅ IB Chg⇅
Outbound Fare Comparison — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). Domestic routes ranked by Q1 2026 capacity.
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Inbound Fare Comparison — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). Domestic routes ranked by Q1 2026 capacity.
Q1 2025
Q1 2026

Route Commentary — Domestic

📈 Transatlantic Premium Holding

Core business routes — JFK-LHR, CDG-JFK — are seeing modest capacity reductions paired with fare increases of 5–7%, indicating inelastic premium demand is supporting yield on blue-chip business corridors.

⚠ Leisure Route Pressure

LHR-MIA outbound fares dropped ~20% — the sharpest move across all international routes — signalling weakening leisure transatlantic demand. EZE-MIA, with LATAM entry pushing a 40% capacity surge, shows similar dynamics in the South America corridor.

⚡ Competition & Overcapacity Risk

LGA-YYZ saw fares fall ~45% outbound following Porter's market entry as the 4th carrier. Quasi-domestic routes (MCO-SJU, JFK-SJU) warrant monitoring for sustained profitability at current load factors.

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Top 10 US International Routes
Ranked by Q1 2026 total seat capacity · one-way economy fares (USD, avg. weighted by capacity)
Route Seat Capacity Carriers Outbound Fare (USD) Inbound Fare (USD)
#⇅ Code⇅ Route Name⇅ 2026 Seats⇅ 2025 Seats⇅ Chg %⇅ 2026⇅ 2025⇅ OB 2026⇅ OB 2025⇅ OB Chg⇅ IB 2026⇅ IB 2025⇅ IB Chg⇅
Outbound Fare Comparison — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). International routes ranked by Q1 2026 capacity.
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Inbound Fare Comparison — Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). International routes ranked by Q1 2026 capacity.
Q1 2025
Q1 2026

Route Commentary — International

About US airfares quarterly data 

Every quarter discover data on each one-way route with a year-on-year comparison (eg: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025) for airline total capacity, number of airlines operating on the route, and lowest average one-way economy airfares (USD) for both inbound and outbound.

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