The aviation industry is once again navigating a complex and fast-moving set of external events as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve. While hopes of a quick end raise cautious optimism, the industry is focused on managing today’s operations. Here we explore the schedules data for this week (23 March) and further ahead to see how airlines are adapting and managing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

In the immediate aftermath of any such event, for airlines the picture is best described as “controlled confusion” – schedules are disrupted, aircraft are out of place, crews stranded and passengers increasingly frustrated complaining at the lack of information that airlines themselves are still working to piece together.

Four weeks into the disruption, approx. 1.7 million scheduled seats have been removed - equating to around one-third of the capacity that had been due to operate in the last week of February. And as the chart below highlights, currently filed capacity suggests that next week will see capacity return to around 4.4 million. However, our expectation is that many of the locally based carriers will be making further capacity cuts in the next few days for next week’s planned schedules, meaning that the current weekly drop to 3.6 million is likely to be with us for some time.

As always there are nuances across the airlines with some suffering more than others. Saudi-based airlines appear to be operating near normal schedules, given the domestic market in the country - which is not replicated across any other Middle East market. Meanwhile, the principal hub carriers have all made significant capacity cuts this week (w/c 23 March) compared to pre-conflict levels (w/c 23 February):

• Emirates: -40%
• Qatar Airways: -62%
• Etihad: -50%
• Air Arabia: -64%

Forty-four airlines that had planned to operate from the Middle East in the last week of February have removed all capacity through to the end of April, collectively accounting for some 245,000 seats a week. Looking forward to the end of May several airlines have dropped significant capacity from the Middle East; Wizz Air has cancelled over 450 flights and British Airways 266 flights that were scheduled to operate and loaded for sale at the end of February.

Has Middle East Disruption Driven More Asia-Europe Flights?

With connectivity through the Middle East now significantly disrupted, there has been interest from the Asian airlines in increasing frequencies between Asia and Europe from the major hubs such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. But has that actually happened?

Taking May as an indicative month, then the answer is: not to any meaningful degree. Very few airlines have added additional frequencies, at least from Asia, and that is not a surprise given the extra aircraft resource required for those additional flights. Singapore Airlines have added an additional 13 services to London Gatwick, while Turkish Airlines have added 35 extra flights for May across a mix of Asian destinations including Beijing and Bangkok, compared to February schedules.

In truth, the notion that airlines have spare capacity that they can quickly move from one market to another - and fill an aircraft - is unrealistic,  particularly when the commercial benefit is likely to be short-term. And in this case, it seems that most airlines have taken the sensible approach sticking with what has always been scheduled.

For the aviation industry, the current situation is, in many respects, a familiar one: challenges that have to be faced with everyone hoping for a swift resolution and a return to normal schedules as quickly as possible. For the locally based airlines, once there is any resolution scheduled services will return to normal very quickly and that powerful connectivity once again back in place. For the overseas airlines operating to the Middle East, the return might be more cautious; for some, that could mean a period of months rather than weeks before services are reinstated. But return they will.