As the peak summer travel season approaches, airlines are planning schedules under a degree of genuine uncertainty. The Middle East conflict has impacted capacity across multiple regions, but with a ceasefire now in place, we’ve looked at what changes are currently planned by both market and major airlines.
Using OAG schedules data comparing 27 April 2026 filed capacity against the original February baseline, this analysis examines what has changed - by region and by airline - across May, June and July.
A ripple effect across all markets
It is no surprise that the Middle East is the most impacted market from the conflict. Airline capacity is down 34.7% in May compared to the February baseline - over one-third of planned capacity no longer in service. However, looking beyond May into June and July, the scale of capacity cuts is less as airlines hope for some resolution to the current issues and retain large parts of their original schedules; a situation that could of course be adjusted on a near daily basis.
The ripple effect extends well beyond the Middle East. Reductions in capacity across Eastern Europe are driven by significant capacity cuts from Middle East carriers to the region:
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Air Arabia has dropped nearly one-third (34.3%) of their originally planned capacity for May - approximately 100,000 seats
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flydubai’s reduction is proportionally smaller at 43%, but in absolute terms it is the largest cut, with 167,000 fewer seats than originally planned.
Other areas significantly affected with capacity cuts in May are:
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South Asia -9.9%
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South East Asia -8.3%
Only one regional market shows any capacity growth in May. Central Asia is up 10% (in May against February) with Indigo adding nearly 85,000 seats as they continue their expansion into the market.
A six-week planning window
Looking beyond May to scheduled capacity for June, there are just three regional markets where capacity growth against February is still expected; North Africa (+3.0%), Central Asia (+14.8%) and North-East Asia (+1.4%). By July there are ten regions anticipating capacity growth - suggesting that globally airlines are looking at around a six-week planning window for schedules and adjusting accordingly.
Locally based airlines: Largest capacity reductions
While it is no surprise that locally-based Middle East airlines are most impacted, the positive message is that in all cases, the airlines are planning to operate at least two-thirds of their initial February capacity as they attempt to return to normal services. Six of the ten largest capacity-dropping airlines also have planned capacity reductions for June, with Qatar Airways at -18% for what would normally be a very busy month for the airline.
Beyond the Middle East
Two situations outside the region are also worth noting, as they illustrate how non-conflict factors continue to reshape capacity alongside the broader disruption.
Spirit Airlines shows a 40% reduction in May capacity versus February - a figure that reflects the airline's ongoing restructuring rather than any conflict-related impact. Separately, Vietjet announced a significant reduction in domestic frequencies, partly due to fuel shortages as they preserve supplies, and consequently have a 29% reduction in total capacity, which should result in some higher-than-normal load factors on those services.
What the data tells us
Schedule data captures decision-making at scale. What is shown here is an industry responding to external factors outside of its control and the impact on markets. For airlines, market disruption is now the new normal for an industry that can move very quickly on occasion.
The six-week planning window that appears to be in use gives airlines room to restore capacity relatively quickly, meaning there is still opportunity for a recovery to near normal summer operations if conditions allow - but that is one thing that airlines just cannot control.
