It has been a challenging few months for local airlines in the Middle East. This summer the two largest airlines are both scheduling fewer services than last summer, with Emirates’ frequency down 12% on last year and Qatar Airways 16% behind. However, Etihad is breaking that pattern with 5% more flights than last summer and a capacity increase of 4%; so why are they growing when others are holding back?
Etihad’s new aircraft contribute to growth
2025 was a record year for the airline in terms of new aircraft: it took delivery of nineteen new aircraft across both its wide- and narrow-bodied fleets, surpassing the fifteen taken in 2016. A further eight aircraft are expected this year, seventeen in 2027 and twenty-one in 2028, but where are those new aircraft going?
Growth across seasonal and year-round markets
With a mix of aircraft types, Etihad has always been able to expand across different markets, in some cases by matching capacity to seasonal summer demand, and in others launching new year-round services. This summer an incredible fourteen new routes will be launched, although the Luxembourg service only starts in the very last week of the summer as defined by IATA.
Amongst the more established and major markets are new services to Hong Kong, Hanoi and Dhaka. These are long overdue and will build both local and connecting markets very quickly. Slightly more surprising is the opening of a daily Charlotte service, since this is a major American Airlines hub - the US carrier holds an 88% share of all flights there. Onward connectivity is required to make Charlotte work for any airline, so while the two carriers have reciprocity on their frequent flyer programmes, the absence of a full codeshare agreement may make for a challenging launch.
Of a more regional nature are new services to Kabul, Damascus and Madinah, which should be well suited to the various A320 aircraft the airline operates. Expansion back into regional markets will of course remain dependent on the geo-political environment, but with stability these markets could, in time, support twice-daily services.
The more seasonal services which are unlikely to extend into a full winter season are to points such as Palma. This is scheduled for a three-times weekly service in summer, on an A320 with a seven-hour twenty-minute block time. Presumably the potential market is those wishing to escape the heat of an Abu Dhabi summer for the even hotter heat of Majorca! Etihad are probably looking for some higher-than-average yields to cover that long-sector length and the crew costs of such a route.
Serving competition-free markets
Finding new markets is never easy. Those already served by competitors are established and typically quite large, while launching services to new destinations requires more marketing power and adds the risk of warming the market up for others to join. This summer it looks like Etihad will operate fifteen services that Emirates and Qatar Airways do not run, with Tel Aviv the largest. At some point Emirates and FlyDubai will certainly be back on Tel Aviv, a market that went from no capacity to one million seats when services fully launched in 2021.
Equally, there are many other opportunities for Etihad where either Qatar Airways or Emirates do operate. London Gatwick is a major destination for both of Etihad’s rivals, and with slots in the wider London Airport system increasingly hard to find it could be a “now or never” moment for Etihad. After all, even the most conservative Singapore Airlines is now operating twice-daily at Gatwick. Cape Town is another major gap in the airline’s network, although bilateral constraints are a factor for Etihad. Ho Chi Minh and Hangzhou are both developing international markets for Emirates.
The key question: more frequency or more network?
Etihad has 98 more aircraft on order, so even accounting for some fleet replacement there is room for plenty of capacity development in the next few years. A key question will be around launching new markets vs building frequency on existing routes. Certainly, summer seasonal services do not need more than three flights a week to serve clientele who could hire a private jet if they wanted, so you wouldn’t expect Palma, for instance, to increase to a daily service. There are certainly plenty of markets that have been warmed up by competitors but in the past bilateral blockages have prevented some growth and that may still be the case.
Ultimately, while there is of course an element that hinges on geo-political events, the next few years are likely to see further network growth from Etihad and it will be an exciting period for the airline. But, on a cautionary note: the Emirates/FlyDubai combined operation has 497 aircraft on order and Qatar Airways has a further 285 so however the network develops, the competitive threat is never going away!
