Asia's scheduled international capacity for May to October 2026 has shifted and evolved. In this analysis, we explore how airlines have responded to world events by adjusting their schedules.
This analysis tracks the percentage change between airline capacity filed firstly in mid-April and then again at the end of May, for the months May to October 2026 (the end of the summer season). This is then compared to the same data for 2025, by region. This helps us understand the extent to which capacity changes at this point differ from what happened last year.
Looking back to 2025, mid-season changes were minimal, with capacity fluctuating by around 1% each month at this point.
2026 has seen greater fluctuations with above-average reductions taking place from May to September, undoubtedly as a result of the crisis in the Middle East and the associated increase in operating costs for airlines. South Asia and South East Asia regions are most impacted, with May reductions averaging around -6.7% and June's around -10%.
South East Asia's International Capacity:
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In the six weeks between mid-April and late-May, 5.2 million seats (4.8% of the season’s capacity) were cut from South East Asia's schedule for May to October.
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At the start of the 2026 summer season, international capacity had been expected to reach 109 million seats, representing 4.6% growth compared to the same period last year.
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With the recent capacity changes, it is now expected to total 103.9 million seats, which is 0.4% below 2025 (assuming no further capacity reductions).
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Over 80% of those reductions (4.2 million seats) are between May and July.
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The countries seeing the largest reductions are Thailand and Malaysia, with over 1 million fewer seats each.
What is interesting is that the bulk of these capacity reductions from South East Asia are for travel within Asia, reflecting perhaps the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on both fuel prices and the cost of living.
In the last six weeks, 1.7 million seats to destinations within South East Asia have been removed from airline schedules, and a further 1.4 million on routes between South East Asia and North East Asia.
Country pairs most affected include:
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Indonesia – Malaysia
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Malaysia – Singapore
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China – Malaysia
- China - Thailand
Fares across most of the main markets are up by between 5-10% on average, reflecting the drop in capacity.
At a time when this part of the world had finally shaken off the lasting impacts of the global pandemic in the early 2020s, and was seeing growth in international markets both within and beyond South East Asia, this latest crisis looks set to create continued uncertainty for some time to come.
