In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Sean Mendis (Director, SeanMendis.com) to explore the intersection of network growth, fleet planning, financing and policy reforms in Africa today.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
African aviation growth: Africa is growing at almost double digits year-on-year, while much of the rest of the world has flatlined. Nigeria is a standout, up 36%, thanks to currency reforms, a new aircraft leasing agreement, and growing confidence from airlines looking to fly there. You can track Africa's aviation growth using our monthly data briefing for Africa)
Challenges holding back African aviation: Many of Africa's barriers are self-inflicted: high taxes, red tape, and over 50 different customs borders add around 30% to the cost of running an airline compared to Europe or North America. Moving an aircraft part between Nigeria and Ghana, a 40-minute flight, can cross four different borders. Africa makes up just 2-3% of global air travel but with the right policies in place, there's a huge opportunity to change that.
The role of regional hubs: Ethiopian Airlines dominates African aviation, with its Addis Ababa hub larger than the next three combined. Its hub-and-spoke model is the blueprint others are looking to copy. However, 70% of intercontinental capacity is still operated by non-African carriers, and physical constraints at Bole Airport are already limiting Ethiopian's ability to grow. It's a bottleneck that needs to be resolved if Africa is to compete on the global stage.
Low-cost carriers: a missing piece:The Middle East grew LCC capacity from 10% to 25% in a decade. Africa has the same potential, but its LCC market is held back by three barriers: punishing taxation, lack of infrastructure, and financing challenges. Taxes alone on a two-hour Accra to Freetown flight exceed $400 before a single dollar reaches the airline, far more than the equivalent cost in Europe or Southeast Asia.
Airlines to watch: Airlink is emerging as one of the most interesting carriers on the continent. Since separating from South African Airways during COVID, they've secured a 25% Qatar Airways stake, ordered 10 Embraer E2s, and expanded routes as far as Zanzibar, Mauritius and Lagos. Nigerian carriers are also ones to watch as market conditions continue to improve.
Fleet strategy and the state ownership problem: Ethiopian stands apart through 25 years of disciplined execution. The planned Bishoftu Airport, 2,000 feet lower than Bole, could enable nonstop A350-1000 services to North America, transforming their network the way Dubai did for Emirates. In contrast, many state-backed carriers continue ordering wide bodies as vanity projects despite 90% of their populations not flying, prioritising the national flag over commercial reality. That gap in commercial discipline will likely define which African airlines thrive over the next decade.
Watch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.
Receive a weekly digest packed full of the latest insights
Trusted by 5,000+ aviation professionals
By submitting the form you agree to OAG using the information you provide to contact you about our relevant content, products, and services. You may unsubscribe from these communications at any time. For more information, check out our Privacy Notice.
