Summer in the US: Challenging Headwinds

In this month's webinar, OAG Chief Analyst John Grant and Deirdre Fulton were joined by Rebecca Francosky (Director, Air Service Development, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport) to explore the upcoming summer season in capacity and frequency terms. 

Key takeaways from the discussion:

• Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical disruptions can cause airlines to rapidly restructure their networks. During the latest Middle East conflict, European carriers — including British Airways — shifted capacity away from the region, redirecting flights to India, South Africa, and transatlantic routes. What's notable is just how quickly airlines can make these pivots and then reverse them when conditions improve. 
  
• Regional Capacity Trends: Summer capacity comparisons show a mixed global picture. North and West Africa are seeing strong growth, while Central America, Mexico, and Canada are declining. Europe is broadly flat, partly due to airlines reconfiguring aircraft toward premium seating, with nearly 50% of seats on some aircraft now in premium or premium economy. 
  
• World Cup Influence: While the World Cup has drawn large crowds locally, many attendees appear to be driving rather than flying, limiting the expected boost to air capacity and demand. 
  
• Spirit Airways Impact: Spirit's collapse has reshaped competitive dynamics, particularly in Fort Lauderdale, where JetBlue was competing directly with Spirit. Almost all of Spirit's routes have been picked up by other carriers, with only the most obscure and marginal routes remaining uncovered. However, markets like Atlanta are still around 500,000 passengers down. 
  
• New Route Development: Delta is set to launch Atlanta to Riyadh in October, with a partnership with Riyadh Air already in place. There is some uncertainty about long-term US to Riyadh passenger demand, but optimism that the route will proceed as planned.

Watch the full panel discussion below, and download the slide deck for the complete data.