If the Summer Season is all about revenue maximisation and aircraft utilisation, then the Winter Season is all about minimising losses and carefully matching airline capacity to passenger demand.
Airlines typically scale back operations in winter, and while in Europe the ski season can be busy, the skill is to match capacity to expected demand - and easyJet has already started making some cuts from their original winter programme. When the original winter schedules launched this time last year, there was no Iran-US conflict, oil prices were low and consumer confidence was strong. Twelve months later, the market conditions are very different and airlines are responding.
In this blog, we will explore easyJet’s adjustments, but it is important to note that other European airlines are making similar changes to their winter programmes. Since the first week of September, 21 airlines have cut their winter capacity by more than 5% in response to changing market conditions, high oil prices and potentially waning consumer confidence. The table below highlights some of the largest reductions applied by ten of Europe’s major airlines in the last five weeks, the most noticeable of which is a 7.5% decrease in scheduled airline capacity from Ryanair.
Using OAG's Schedules Analyser, we have compared easyJet’s scheduled capacity filed on 7th September 2026 with those filed on 18th October 2026.
A Modest Three Per cent Capacity Cut
easyJet stress that the planned capacity cuts amount to less than three per cent (2.8% to be precise). However, when you’re a large airline, that amounts to ~1.1 million seats, over 8,000 seats a day, or 45 flights. It is certainly not a dramatic amount of cutting, more a realignment of capacity to demand, and is exactly what every airline should be doing in these uncertain times.
Which country markets are impacted by easyJet’s winter schedule capacity cuts?
Across the ten largest country markets:
- Italy has the largest reduction: - 4.1%
- Switzerland has the smallest reduction: -1.5 %
Outside of the ten largest markets:
- Bulgaria sees the largest drop in capacity (-7.4%) which is perhaps not a surprise. easyJet have a 1% capacity share and the combined Ryanair/Wizz Air operation holds a 55% share - numbers that suggest Bulgaria is a marginal market for easyJet .
- On a more positive note, and clearly easyJet believe in Father Christmas, they have increased capacity by 3.7% to Finland; by carefully up-gauging some services to larger aircraft types and not increasing frequency.
Largest capacity reductions at Milan Malpensa and London Luton airports
easyJet’s largest market is the UK and London Gatwick airport is the largest base with ~3.5 million seats scheduled this winter, a reduction of -2.5% compared to schedules filed at the beginning of September. France is the second-largest market for easyJet, and Geneva Int’l airport has seen a smaller capacity reduction (1.5%) for the same time period.
Two airports - in the top ten largest - will see capacity cut by more than 5%:
- Milan Malpensa loses just under 90,000 seats (-5.9%).
- London Luton sees a drop of 66,000 seats (-5.2%).
- In absolute terms, Milan Malpensa and London Gatwick have the highest capacity cuts, both with a reduction of ~90,000 seats. To put that into context the cuts amount to the loss of four flights a day for Gatwick, and three fewer for Milan on average.
Outside of the top ten, the largest capacity reductions are at: Tangier, Strasbourg, and Derry. All of which see a capacity reduction of more than 10% for the winter.
What capacity changes are there at route level?
Airport pairs with the largest capacity cuts tend to be those that were originally scheduled to be operated with a low frequency through the winter, for instance the 61.5% reduction in capacity on Naples to Luxembourg (NAP-LUX) is based on a frequency cut from twenty-six to ten flights over the season, and the 58.7% reduction on London Southend to Palma de Mallorca (SEN – PMI) will now only be operated nine times through the winter compared to the original twenty-one.
Positively Southampton gains a new route in the latest schedules with a Manchester service added to the programme - although some of that frequency comes at the expense of slight cuts in service to both Barcelona and Paris.
Making such an early set of schedule changes for the winter makes complete sense for easyJet, and prevents any potential issues of having to reaccommodate passengers from cancelled flights. It is very likely other airlines will follow suit in the next few weeks and some of those cuts could be larger than those planned by easyJet. This winter is going to be challenging for all airlines and being cautious with capacity planning now is much better than facing empty flights in February because those decisions were not made soon enough.
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