Q2 2026

Airfares on the top US route pairs

Check-in with the latest US airfare analysis for Q2 2026.

US airfares key findings

  • Airfares have decreased year-on-year on 4 of the top 10 US domestic routes and 3 of the top 10 US international routes, with differences largely driven by changes in capacity and airline competition.
  • The largest domestic fare change was on Atlanta (ATL) - Fort Lauderdale (FLL), down ~29%.
  • Internationally, the largest fare change was on LaGuardia (LGA) - Toronto Pearson (YYZ), where fares declined by 26% outbound and 20% inbound.
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OAG | Top 10 US Routes & Fares — Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
⚠ Florida Route Fare Pressure

Spirit's exit from ATL-FLL and ATL-MCO is reshaping competitive dynamics. JetBlue and Frontier have filled the gap aggressively, with ATL-FLL fares down ~30% year-on-year against a capacity increase of 10%.

⚠ Three Routes, Three Fare Stories

JFK-LAX, ATL-MCO and ATL-FLL are all showing fare declines of 21–30% year-on-year — but the drivers differ. On ATL-FLL and ATL-MCO, carrier exits and aggressive gap-filling are the primary factor. On JFK-LAX, with its LCC already gone, the decline is harder to attribute to competition alone and may reflect underlying demand softness that warrants monitoring.

✓ Hawaii & West Coast Strength

HNL-LAX and LAX-SFO are bucking the domestic trend with fare increases of 8–15%, driven by sustained leisure demand and capacity discipline. A 6.5% capacity reduction on Hawaii's busiest route — HNL-OGG — has pushed up fares by 8% on the outbound leg.

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Top 10 US Domestic Routes
Ranked by Q2 2026 total seat capacity · one-way economy fares (USD, avg. weighted by capacity)
Route Seat Capacity Carriers Outbound Fare (USD) Inbound Fare (USD)
#⇅ Code⇅ Route Name⇅ 2026 Seats⇅ 2025 Seats⇅ Chg %⇅ 2026⇅ 2025⇅ OB 2026⇅ OB 2025⇅ OB Chg⇅ IB 2026⇅ IB 2025⇅ IB Chg⇅
Outbound Fare Comparison — Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). Domestic routes ranked by Q2 2026 capacity.
Q2 2025
Q2 2026
Inbound Fare Comparison — Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). Domestic routes ranked by Q2 2026 capacity.
Q2 2025
Q2 2026

Route Commentary — Domestic

✓ Transatlantic Premium Strengthening

With capacity reductions on some key transatlantic routes, fares are being pushed up. JFK-LHR is up ~8%, BOS-LHR outbound up 21%, and LAX-LHR outbound up 12% — reflecting robust premium and World Cup-driven demand.

⚠ Inbound Fare Softness

Inbound fares from the UK and Europe tell a different story. LAX-LHR inbound is down 6%, LGA-YYZ inbound down ~20%, and ICN-LAX inbound down ~14% — signalling weaker demand for travel into the US from key origin markets.

⚡ Toronto Overcapacity Persists

LGA-YYZ fares remain under pressure despite broadly flat capacity, with outbound fares down ~26% year-on-year, as carriers attempt to stimulate demand.

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Top 10 US International Routes
Ranked by Q2 2026 total seat capacity · one-way economy fares (USD, avg. weighted by capacity)
Route Seat Capacity Carriers Outbound Fare (USD) Inbound Fare (USD)
#⇅ Code⇅ Route Name⇅ 2026 Seats⇅ 2025 Seats⇅ Chg %⇅ 2026⇅ 2025⇅ OB 2026⇅ OB 2025⇅ OB Chg⇅ IB 2026⇅ IB 2025⇅ IB Chg⇅
Outbound Fare Comparison — Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). International routes ranked by Q2 2026 capacity.
Q2 2025
Q2 2026
Inbound Fare Comparison — Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026
Average weighted one-way economy fare (USD). International routes ranked by Q2 2026 capacity.
Q2 2025
Q2 2026

Route Commentary — International

About US airfares quarterly data 

Every quarter discover data on each one-way route with a year-on-year comparison (eg: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025) for airline total capacity, number of airlines operating on the route, and lowest average one-way economy airfares (USD) for both inbound and outbound.

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