OAG Travel News

Last week I made some predictions regarding the American football playoffs based on levels of air service.  Today I’ll review those predictions based on the results of the division games played this weekend (January 10/11, 2009).

Service by Southwest Airlines
My hypothesis that teams with the most flights by Southwest Airlines would win held true for three of the four games in the divisional round.  And this is the only scenario of the three I originally presented in which my predicted Super Bowl winner remains in the hunt.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans – The fact that Tennessee was the highest-seeded team in their conference could not carry them to victory over the lowest-ranked Baltimore Ravens.  Perhaps the fact that Baltimore has more Southwest service was the deciding factor.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers – Charlotte, home to the Carolina Panthers, does not have any Southwest service.  Conversely, Phoenix – home to the Arizona Cardinals – has more Southwest service than any other city represented in this year’s playoffs.  Not surprisingly, Arizona won the game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – Although the Giants entered the playoffs with the highest seed in their conference, they were not able to beat the lowest-seeded Philadelphia Eagles.  It is certainly possible that the fact that Philadelphia has service by Southwest – and the three major New York-area airports (JFK, LaGuardia and Newark) currently have no Southwest service – played a role in the Eagles victory.

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – This is the only game that did not follow my predicted trend.  Pittsburgh has less Southwest service than San Diego, but the Steelers won the game.

This week’s score – 3 of 4, or 75%
Original prediction for Super Bowl winner – Arizona Cardinals – will play next week

US Airways Hubs
Again, my hypothesis that teams with the most service by US Airways would win held true for three of the four games in the divisional round.
 
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans – Although only a former hub for US Airways, Baltimore boasts more flights on US Airways than Nashville.  Perhaps this fact helped lead the Ravens to victory.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers – Charlotte, home to the Carolina Panthers, is the largest hub for US Airways while Phoenix ranks as the airline’s third-largest hub.  But the Cardinals victory knocked the Panthers out of the running.  A consolation is the fact that one conference championship game next week will played in suburban Phoenix – home to the corporate headquarters for US Airways.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – Philadelphia is the third-largest hub for US Airways… and the Eagles victorious over the New York Giants.

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Pittsburgh is a former hub for US Airways with four times the level of service by US Airways than San Diego… and the Steelers were victorious this weekend.

This week’s score – 3 of 4, or 75%
Original prediction for Super Bowl winner – Carolina Panthers – eliminated

Service to Tampa, Florida
Amazingly, my hypothesis that teams with the most service to Tampa, Florida – the host city for the 2009 Super Bowl – would win held true for three of the four games in the divisional round.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans – As mentioned, Baltimore was the lowest-seeded team in its conference playoffs.  But as in the two previous air service categories examined, Baltimore came out on top.  With more flights to Tampa than the Tennessee Titans (who play in Nashville), I correctly predicted that Baltimore would win.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers – Charlotte boasts more nonstop service to Tampa than Phoenix, so this counts as my loss.  But with three daily nonstop flights between Phoenix and Tampa, there’s plenty of service to accommodate the team if they win a trip to the Super Bowl with a victory next week.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – Philadelphia has more flights to Tampa than New York’s Newark Airport – I used this airport because Giants Stadium is in East Rutherford, New Jersey – and the Eagles were victorious this weekend.

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – San Diego currently has no nonstop service to Tampa.  That’s probably a good thing, given that they won’t be traveling to Tampa for the Super Bowl – they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This week’s score – 3 of 4, or 75%
Original prediction for Super Bowl winner – New York Giants or Carolina Panthers – both eliminated

Although I correctly predicted the outcome of 75 percent of this week’s games using my air service model, only one of the teams I predicted would win the Super Bowl is still in contention.  Another update will come your way next week!

Source: Official Airline Guide (OAG) Schedule Tapes; data reflects air service levels for January 2009 only.

Note: Game winners and losers predicted based on schedule set forth by National Football League rules.

OAG contributor Laura Jackson was just two weeks old when she took her first flight on Piedmont Airlines.  In junior high school, she developed a business plan for her own airline.  Today she manages strategy and policy issues at one of the world's busiest airports and provides original content and aviation industry analysis for OAG.