Press Releases 2008
Slowdown in growth rate of flights worldwide
15 May 2008
- Volume of airline schedules climbs just 2% for May
- Number of flights increases by 40,000; just half of last month’s year on year rise
- US domestic flight volumes down by 23,000 with more than 1.5 million fewer seats
- India and China lead global growth
- Continued growth in low cost sector boosts global figures
- Aircraft orders up by 35%
The world’s airlines are scheduled to operate 2% more flights for May 2008 compared with the same month last year. According to the latest statistics from OAG (Official Airline Guide), the world’s authority on flight information, this represents an additional 40,000 flights, which is half as many additional flights as last month’s year-on-year figures. Capacity for May is up by 3%, representing an additional 10.1 million seats compared with the same month last year. A month ago the year-on-year rise in capacity was 5%.
The total number of flights scheduled to operate worldwide this month is 2.55 million, offering 306.9 million seats to travelers around the globe. Within this global figure of all scheduled passenger flight operations, the low cost sector shows a 14% increase both in frequency and capacity, with over 54,000 more flights year on year and an extra 8.2 million low cost seats worldwide compared to May 2007. The low cost sector for this month now accounts for 17% of all passenger flights worldwide (up from 16% a year ago) and 22% of all seats (up from 20%).
The United States, often a barometer of global trends, is showing a 3% drop in the total number of domestic flights scheduled this month, representing 22,900 fewer flights and 1.51 million fewer seats. Conversely, the US low cost sector has a 4% increase both in domestic flights and capacity for the month (an additional 6,661 flights and 752,392 seats). Internationally, there is a 3% rise in the total number of all flights to and from the US, including low cost, with a 5% increase in capacity.
The figures are revealed in the latest OAG Aviation Statistics, a regular snapshot of airline activity around the world. Flight information and data solutions company OAG collates data from more than 900 scheduled airlines, on a daily basis, which gives an accurate overview of anticipated travel demand.
Routes and Regional Growth
Most inter-continental routes are showing healthy growth, the largest increases being between Western Europe and the Middle East with flights up by 13% and capacity up by 11%. Madrid, Rome, Doha and Abu Dhabi airports are all showing high percentage increases in planned operations on these routes this month.
Transatlantic operations remain on an upward curve with an 8% increase in both flights and capacity compared with May 2007. On the transatlantic route, London Heathrow is showing the highest increase in operations, with airlines scheduled to operate 1,020 more flights to or from the airport this month (up by 18%) compared with May 2007; this is just under half of all additional transatlantic services and represents 249,570 more seats for flight arrivals and departures combined.
The changing landscape on the New York/London route has changed significantly year-on-year, with 2 airlines no longer operating at all (MAXjet and eos) and four carriers now offering new non-stop services, namely Continental Airlines between Newark and Heathrow; Zoom Airlines between JFK and Gatwick; Delta Air Lines between JFK and Heathrow; and American Airlines between JFK and Stansted.
India and China continue to show year-on-year growth far exceeding the average. For this month, there is a 31% increase in flights to and from India (4,126 extra flights) and a 13% rise in domestic operations (5,610 flights). International flights to and from China (including Hong Kong and Macau) is showing a 10% increase (3,775 extra flights), and there is a 4% rise in domestic operations (6,286 flights).
Other markets showing a strong upward trend in their domestic operations for May 2008 include Canada (up by 12%, or 8,065 more flights); the Russian Federation (up by 29%, or 6,666 more flights); and Brazil (up by 10%, or 4,650 more flights).
Fleet Growth
Aircraft fleet data from OAG reveals there are 40,076 planes operating worldwide this month compared to 38,656 the same time last year, an increase of 3.7%. North America accounts for 36% of the global market with 14,607 aircraft in active service, followed by Europe with 10,649. The regions showing the largest year on year increases are Latin America & Caribbean (7.7%) and Asia Pacific (6.6%).
Globally, there are more than 8,200 aircraft on order this month, a rise of just over 35% compared to this time last year. Asia Pacific accounts for the largest share of new orders with plans for another 2,755 aircraft. The Middle East is showing the largest year on year percentage increase at 145% (458 more aircraft on order than a year ago), followed by Latin America & Caribbean with an increase of 52%, representing 174 more aircraft.
Steve Casley, Chief Operating Officer, OAG, commented:
"Financial burdens caused by economic uncertainties and rising fuel prices are starting to take their toll. For those reasons we have seen a higher than usual number of airlines folded in recent weeks and we are seeing several other carriers looking to restructure, find partners or even consolidate with competitors to ensure their long-term survival.
"Yet, OAG’s statistics indicate continued and growing consumer demand for air travel, albeit at a slower rate than previous months, and the airlines are responding with increased capacity in many markets. Airports, too, are reviewing their operations to cope with this demand. So far this year, we’ve seen at least four major international hubs expand their facilities, namely Singapore Changi T3 in January; Beijing T3 and Shanghai Pudong T2 in March, and Heathrow T5 last month. If you combine this with the 35% increase in aircraft orders, it indicates that despite current financial pressures, the industry as a whole is gearing up its investment for long-term sustainability."
Below is a chart showing a 5-year growth trend for selected regions in terms of number of flight schedules:
Passenger Flights by Region |
May |
May |
May |
May |
May |
Growth 08 vs 07 |
|
Worldwide |
2,243,013 |
2,367,951 |
2,399,815 |
2,513,642 |
2,553,657 |
40,015 |
2% |
To/From Africa |
20,232 |
22,491 |
24,446 |
27,759 |
30,067 |
2,308 |
8% |
Within Africa |
46,693 |
51,844 |
49,647 |
51,695 |
59,282 |
7,587 |
15% |
To/From Asia/Pacific |
37,666 |
40,189 |
45,151 |
48,079 |
54,647 |
6,568 |
14% |
Within Asia/Pacific |
410,887 |
445,483 |
479,550 |
517,685 |
534,964 |
17,279 |
3% |
To/From China (inc.HK & Macao) |
27,299 |
30,543 |
33,023 |
38,689 |
42,464 |
3,775 |
10% |
Within China (inc.HK & Macao) |
94,891 |
110,453 |
124,471 |
147,348 |
153,634 |
6,286 |
4% |
To/From India |
8,480 |
10,120 |
12,408 |
13,243 |
17,369 |
4,126 |
31% |
Within India |
21,731 |
23,318 |
34,761 |
43,392 |
49,002 |
5,610 |
13% |
To/From Central & South America |
52,307 |
54,577 |
55,336 |
55,437 |
57,687 |
2,250 |
4% |
Within Central & South America |
171,949 |
172,144 |
179,438 |
185,711 |
188,868 |
3,157 |
2% |
To/From Europe |
72,669 |
78,230 |
84,963 |
90,730 |
98,867 |
8,137 |
9% |
Within Europe |
522,448 |
557,321 |
582,536 |
611,746 |
627,521 |
15,775 |
3% |
To/From Middle East |
24,343 |
27,029 |
31,247 |
33,720 |
40,310 |
6,590 |
20% |
To/From North America |
78,365 |
82,622 |
84,719 |
86,573 |
91,038 |
4,465 |
5% |
Within North America |
922,810 |
961,537 |
914,431 |
940,306 |
925,936 |
-14,370 |
-2% |
In terms of capacity, the Asia and Europe regions are fast approaching the same levels as North America. For April 08 the volume of seats are 80 million within Asia Pacific and 75 million within Europe, compared with 83 million within North America. Despite this, Asia and Europe both are still some way behind in the number of flights operating within their regions.
OAG publishes a monthly quick reference tool, OAG FACTS (Frequency & Capacity Trend Statistics) which uses interactive graphs to give an overview of the performance of a specific airport, route, country or region from 2001 onwards. For more information, a product demo and subscription details, please visit www.oag.com/go/facts or email customers@oag.com
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Notes to Editors:
Data on specific countries and key routes and hubs worldwide is available from OAG on request.
For further information please contact:
Alison Pickering, Head of Corporate Communications, OAG
T: +44 (0)1582 695477 apickering@oag.com