Press Releases 2003
Airline Industry Recovering Says OAG (UK/Europe media)
21 September 2003
Figures published today (21 September 2003) by OAG, the world's leading source of independent flight schedule information, indicate that the global airline industry is beginning to recover following a rollercoaster two 2 years which has seen it face a series of crises such as 9/11, the Iraq war and SARS. Worldwide scheduled flights are now at the same level as the same time last year.
While some regions are back to, or above, pre 9/11 levels, the worldwide figures show a -5% drop compared with 2001- largely driven by the continuing pressures facing the US industry, especially in the domestic market. The figures are part of the fourth OAG Quarterly Report on global airline schedules. *
Overall market and regional statistics
Worldwide, the number of scheduled flights is comparable with the same period in 2002 despite the decreases reported in the last quarter.
The UK market continues to perform strongly with flights to and from the UK up +6% year on year. This follows on from the +4% increase year on year shown in the June Quarterly Report when the UK was one of the few areas to maintain growth, largely driven by a strong low-cost sector.
Asia-Pacific has also fought back strongly from the SARS crisis, recording a +10% growth year on year on flights to and from the region. China has seen a +21% growth in internal flights and flights to and from China are down just –3% year on year, compared to a -45% drop reported 3 months ago.
The Middle East is also showing healthy growth of +10% year on year on flights to and from the region. Nearly 500 flights have been added compared with September 2002.
The Americas as a whole continue to show the weakest recovery. Although US domestic flights are at the same level as September 2002 this is still -12% down on September 2001 levels. Within Central & South America flights are down -10% compared with September 2002. The slow recovery of the American market may explain why overall worldwide flight levels have failed to increase year on year despite the strong growth recorded in some areas of the global airline industry.
Key routes
Transatlantic traffic is beginning to pick up year on year, up +2% on September 2002. However, figures remain down -12% on September 2001 levels, over 700 fewer flights.
Traffic between Western Europe and Asia Pacific is up +5% year on year or nearly 100 flights compared with September 2002. Certain Asia Pacific routes have been slower to recover: flights between Singapore Changi to and from Western Europe are down –3% and between Hong Kong and Western Europe scheduled flights are down –2% year on year.
The transpacific routes continue to record losses in schedules following the devastating impact of the SARS virus. All key transpacific routes record a drop in scheduled flights. Flights between Hong Kong to and from the US and Canada are down –19% year on year, losing almost 10,000 seats. The US-Asia Pacific route is down –4% year on year, over 35,000 seats.
Hubs
Despite the main Asia hubs showing a drop in scheduled flights year on year, there has been a huge recovery in the last quarter. Singapore Changi appears to still be suffering from the impact of SARS, recording a –16% drop in scheduled flights year on year following the –35% drop year on year shown in OAG’s June figures. Tokyo Narita and Hong Kong airports record a –6% and –4% drop respectively.
Key hubs in the US show a very mixed picture, with year on year variances ranging from +15% to -22%, reflecting how closely airlines are reviewing their business models and analysing profitability of individual routes.
Low-cost flights internationally
The low-cost sector has continued to perform strongly and should be credited with buoying up the industry in the last two years.
Low cost flights within Europe continue to show the largest increase with nearly 4,500 more flights, up +62% year on year. Low cost flights to and from the UK also continue to climb with a year on year increase of +34%, more than 1,300 flights. Within the UK, flight levels have risen by +38%.
Low-cost flights in the Americas are steadily on the rise. In the US domestic market, the number of low-cost flights has risen by +7% year on year, up +5% on pre 9/11 levels. The Canadian domestic market has shown significant growth, up +59% year on year.
When compared with pre 9/11 data the phenomenal performance of the low-cost sector is even more apparent. Virtually all regions report incredible growth in the no-frills area. Low-cost flights within Europe are up +176% (over 7,500 flights); up 123% within Canada; up +272% within Pacific/Australasia and up +450% to and from Latin America compared to September 2001. Flights to and from the UK are up +75%, more than 2,500 flights, and flights within the UK are up almost 100%.
Lynne Fraser, marketing director of OAG data, commented:
“ The OAG Quarterly Report shows that the airline industry is slowly but surely beginning to recover following the devastating catalogue of events and pressures of the last couple of years. The global economic and political factors have dented the confidence of many airlines; however, the general positive trends beginning to show through in our statistics indicate that the industry may at last have turned a corner.”
OAG collects the schedules of more than 930 airlines in a variety of formats, and verifies, quality checks and processes them into a consistent format for distribution throughout the airline and travel industries. Its database also includes cargo information.
The figures below show international and domestic flights by region:
|
Year on year comparisons |
Pre 9/11 comparisons |
Worldwide |
0% |
-5% |
To/from UK UK Domestic |
+6% +2% |
+4% +6% |
To/from US/Canada US Domestics |
+1% 0% |
-11% -12% |
To/from Asia Pacific Within Asia Pacific |
+10% +4% |
+11% +6% |
To/from China Within China |
-3% +21% |
+13% +36% |
To/from Europe Within Europe |
+5% +1% |
+1% -1% |
To/from Middle East Within Middle East |
+10% +1% |
+8% +5% |
To/from Central & South America Within Central & South America |
+1% -10% |
-4% -12% |
To/from Africa Within Africa |
+5% -1% |
+8% -3% |
The figures below show flights on a selection of the world's major routes:
|
Year on year comparisons |
Pre 9/11 comparisons |
Transatlantic |
|
|
USA & Canada to/from Western Europe |
+2% |
-12% |
London Heathrow to/from USA & Canada |
+7% |
+5% |
London Gatwick to/from USA & Canada |
-10% |
-34% |
New York JFK to/from Western Europe |
+1% |
-15% |
Paris Charles de Gaulle to/from USA & Canada |
-2% |
-11% |
Western Europe/Asia Pacific |
|
|
Western Europe to/from Asia Pacific |
+5% |
+4% |
London (Heathrow & Gatwick) to/from Asia Pacific |
+2% |
-1% |
Hong Kong to/from Western Europe |
-2% |
-4% |
Singapore Changi to/from Western Europe |
-3% |
-4% |
Transpacific |
|
|
USA/Canada to/from Asia Pacific |
-4% |
-14% |
Hong Kong to/from USA & Canada |
-19% |
-26% |
Vancouver to/from Asia Pacific |
-7% |
-7% |
The figures below show flights at a selection of the world's major airports:
|
Year on year comparisons |
Pre 9/11 comparisons |
To/from London Heathrow |
0% |
-1% |
To/from London Gatwick |
+1% |
-7% |
To/from Paris Charles de Gaulle |
+1% |
-3% |
To/from Frankfurt |
-2% |
0% |
To/from New York, JFK |
-5% |
-18% |
To/from Pittsburg |
-22% |
-33% |
To/from Hong Kong |
-4% |
-1% |
To/from Singapore, Changi |
-16% |
-19% |
To/from Tokyo Narita |
-6% |
+29% |
The figures below show low-cost flights by region:
|
Year on year comparisons |
Pre 9/11 comparisons |
Low cost to/from UK Low cost within UK |
+34% |
+75% |
Low cost within Europe |
+62% |
+176% |
Low within US |
+7% |
+5% |
Low cost within Canada |
+59% |
+123% |
Low cost to/from US & Canada |
+113% |
+707% |
Low cost within Latin America |
+21% |
+69% |
Low cost within Asia |
-25% |
+6% |
Low cost within Pacific & Australasia |
+50% |
+272% |
Notes to editors
*The OAG Quarterly Report on Global Airline Schedules
This is the fourth OAG quarterly report on global airline schedules, developed to provide a comprehensive snapshot of the current state of the air travel industry. The data used in the report is taken from the OAG schedules database, the scale and quality of which is unmatched. Recognised for its accuracy, the OAG database is constantly updated and holds data on more than 930 airlines and over 1.5 million flight sectors.
The report identifies and compares the number of scheduled flights by region, on key routes and to and from major airports, for a particular week from year to year. The reports are published in March, June, September and December.
To obtain the full figures for the September 2003 report click here.