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You are here: Press Room  >  Press Releases 2001  > Forecasts of Sharp Decline in Transatlantic Flights Now a Reality says OAG 011101.
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Forecasts of Sharp Decline in Transatlantic Flights Now a Reality, says OAG



14  November  2001

The first official air travel figures published today by OAG Worldwide confirm the reality of heavy cutbacks in flights between European airports and the United States that were forecast following the attacks of September 11 on New York and Washington.

According to the new airline schedules for November, the biggest falls are in transatlantic flights to and from Paris Charles de Gaulle and London Gatwick, with about one in five flights (20% and 22% respectively) cancelled. London Heathrow shows a drop of 11% in flights to and from the US, and now has nearly twice as many transatlantic flights as any other major European hub.

OAG Worldwide collates, processes and distributes the scheduling information of all airlines across the globe and operates the world's most comprehensive and independent airline schedules database. Data for a typical mid-week day in November, released today, shows that the original schedules for all international flights into the US for November 8, 2001 fell from 1,801 to 1,510 - a cancellation of 291 flights (16%) for that one day. This drop is mirrored in the year-on-year comparison, which shows a reduction of 17% of flights for the same day vs November 9 2000.

US domestic travel has been equally hard hit. More than 4,600 flights (15%) that were planned to operate on November 8, were cancelled or changed post September 11. This represented a drop in capacity of nearly half a million seats.

The figures do not reflect the seat occupancy rates.

Eddie Bell, Chairman of OAG Worldwide, commented:

"Airlines have faced a huge logistical challenge, borne out by the time it has taken for them to adjust their operations. Our analysis shows that the actual schedules now are broadly in line with what was predicted in the days immediately after the terrorist action."

"OAG is the first to receive and process schedule changes from the airlines, and over the last 2 months we were able to see that the forecasts were gradually becoming a reality."

"Clearly airlines are operating in the most difficult circumstances and this is reflected in the significant decline in capacity. The information the airlines provide to our database confirms that scheduled flights across the Atlantic are the hardest hit, but it does appear to have stabalised now. With the operating environment continuing to change, and in light of Monday's tragic crash, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the days and weeks ahead but OAG will continue to monitor the situation."

The global perspective from the OAG database shows that intra-regional operations are holding up relatively well outside the US, but all regions are experiencing much bigger cuts in international operations:

Flights departures for November 8 (original schedule pre Sept 11)

Flights departures for November 8(actual schedule)

Variation (%)

Variation (%) vs November 9 2000

US Domestics

Intl to/from US

30,509

1,801

25,891

1,510

-15%

-16%

-16%

-17%

Within Europe

Int'l to/from Europe

17,596

1,055

16,988

945

-3%

-10%

-5%

-12%

Within AsPac

Int'l to/from AsPac

11,412

529

11,201

491

-2%

-8%

-5%

-7%

Within CSA

Int'l to/from CSA

6,824

813

6,488

673

-5%

-17%

-7%

-12%

Within AME

Int'l to/from AME

2,423

522

2,454

483

+1%

-7%

-3%

-10%

Passenger only non-stop flights
Int'l = International
AsPac = Asia Pacific
CSA = Central & South America
AME = Africa & Middle East

The figures below show the effect on transatlantic traffic at five of the major European hubs

  Flights departures for
November 8, 2001
Variation (%)
Original schedule pre Sept 11
vs actual schedule

To/from US to London Heathrow

- 11%

To/from US to London Gatwick

- 22%

To/from US to Amsterdam Schiphol

- 15%

To/from US to Paris Charles de Gaulle

- 20%

To/from US to Frankfurt

- 11%

Passenger only non-stop flights

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